Econometrics

arXiv:econ.EM

Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations, Statistics for Economic Analysis.

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Econometrics

Trending in Econometrics

2510.24433

Nearest Neighbor Matching as Least Squares Density Ratio Estimation and Riesz Regression

This study proves that Nearest Neighbor (NN) matching can be interpreted as an instance of Riesz regression for automatic debiased machine learning. Lin et al. (2023) shows that NN matching is an instance of density-ratio estimation with their new density-ratio estimator. Chernozhukov et al. (2024) develops Riesz regression for automatic debiased machine learning, which directly estimates the Riesz representer (or equivalently, the bias-correction term) by minimizing the mean squared error. In this study, we first prove that the density-ratio estimation method proposed in Lin et al. (2023) is essentially equivalent to Least-Squares Importance Fitting (LSIF) proposed in Kanamori et al. (2009) for direct density-ratio estimation. Furthermore, we derive Riesz regression using the LSIF framework. Based on these results, we derive NN matching from Riesz regression. This study is based on our work Kato (2025a) and Kato (2025b).

2510.244335

Oct 2025Econometrics

Direct Debiased Machine Learning via Bregman Divergence Minimization

We develop a direct debiased machine learning framework comprising Neyman targeted estimation and generalized Riesz regression. Our framework unifies Riesz regression for automatic debiased machine learning, covariate balancing, targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE), and density-ratio estimation. In many problems involving causal effects or structural models, the parameters of interest depend on regression functions. Plugging regression functions estimated by machine learning methods into the identifying equations can yield poor performance because of first-stage bias. To reduce such bias, debiased machine learning employs Neyman orthogonal estimating equations. Debiased machine learning typically requires estimation of the Riesz representer and the regression function. For this problem, we develop a direct debiased machine learning framework with an end-to-end algorithm. We formulate estimation of the nuisance parameters, the regression function and the Riesz representer, as minimizing the discrepancy between Neyman orthogonal scores computed with known and unknown nuisance parameters, which we refer to as Neyman targeted estimation. Neyman targeted estimation includes Riesz representer estimation, and we measure discrepancies using the Bregman divergence. The Bregman divergence encompasses various loss functions as special cases, where the squared loss yields Riesz regression and the Kullback-Leibler divergence yields entropy balancing. We refer to this Riesz representer estimation as generalized Riesz regression. Neyman targeted estimation also yields TMLE as a special case for regression function estimation. Furthermore, for specific pairs of models and Riesz representer estimation methods, we can automatically obtain the covariate balancing property without explicitly solving the covariate balancing objective.

2510.235345

Oct 2025Econometrics

Bayesian Portfolio Optimization by Predictive Synthesis

Portfolio optimization is a critical task in investment. Most existing portfolio optimization methods require information on the distribution of returns of the assets that make up the portfolio. However, such distribution information is usually unknown to investors. Various methods have been proposed to estimate distribution information, but their accuracy greatly depends on the uncertainty of the financial markets. Due to this uncertainty, a model that could well predict the distribution information at one point in time may perform less accurately compared to another model at a different time. To solve this problem, we investigate a method for portfolio optimization based on Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS), one of the Bayesian ensemble methods for meta-learning. We assume that investors have access to multiple asset return prediction models. By using BPS with dynamic linear models to combine these predictions, we can obtain a Bayesian predictive posterior about the mean rewards of assets that accommodate the uncertainty of the financial markets. In this study, we examine how to construct mean-variance portfolios and quantile-based portfolios based on the predicted distribution information.

2510.071801

Oct 2025Econometrics

Bootstrap Diagnostic Tests

Violation of the assumptions underlying classical (Gaussian) limit theory often yields unreliable statistical inference. This paper shows that the bootstrap can detect such violations by delivering simple and powerful diagnostic tests that (a) induce no pre-testing bias, (b) use the same critical values across applications, and (c) are consistent against deviations from asymptotic normality. The tests compare the conditional distribution of a bootstrap statistic with the Gaussian limit implied by valid specification and assess whether the resulting discrepancy is large enough to indicate failure of the asymptotic Gaussian approximation. The method is computationally straightforward and only requires a sample of i.i.d. draws of the bootstrap statistic. We derive sufficient conditions for the randomness in the data to mix with the randomness in the bootstrap repetitions in a way such that (a), (b) and (c) above hold. We demonstrate the practical relevance and broad applicability of bootstrap diagnostics by considering several scenarios where the asymptotic Gaussian approximation may fail, including weak instruments, non-stationarity, parameters on the boundary of the parameter space, infinite variance data and singular Jacobian in applications of the delta method. An illustration drawn from the empirical macroeconomic literature concludes.

2509.013512

Sep 2025Econometrics

Estimation and Inference in Boundary Discontinuity Designs: Location-Based Methods

Boundary discontinuity designs are used to learn about causal treatment effects along a continuous assignment boundary that splits units into control and treatment groups according to a bivariate location score. We analyze the statistical properties of local polynomial treatment effect estimators employing location information for each unit. We develop pointwise and uniform estimation and inference methods for both the conditional treatment effect function at the assignment boundary as well as for transformations thereof, which aggregate information along the boundary. We illustrate our methods with an empirical application. Companion general-purpose software is provided.

2505.056706

May 2025Econometrics

Large Language Models: An Applied Econometric Framework

Large language models (LLMs) enable researchers to analyze text at unprecedented scale and minimal cost. Researchers can now revisit old questions and tackle novel ones with rich data. We provide an econometric framework for realizing this potential in two empirical uses. For prediction problems -- forecasting outcomes from text -- valid conclusions require ``no training leakage'' between the LLM's training data and the researcher's sample, which can be enforced through careful model choice and research design. For estimation problems -- automating the measurement of economic concepts for downstream analysis -- valid downstream inference requires combining LLM outputs with a small validation sample to deliver consistent and precise estimates. Absent a validation sample, researchers cannot assess possible errors in LLM outputs, and consequently seemingly innocuous choices (which model, which prompt) can produce dramatically different parameter estimates. When used appropriately, LLMs are powerful tools that can expand the frontier of empirical economics.

2412.0703129

Dec 2024Econometrics

Program Evaluation with Remotely Sensed Outcomes

Economists often estimate treatment effects in experiments using remotely sensed variables (RSVs), e.g., satellite images or mobile phone activity, in place of directly measured economic outcomes. A common practice is to use an observational sample to train a predictor of the economic outcome from the RSV, and then use these predictions as the outcomes in the experiment. We show that this method is biased whenever the RSV is a post-outcome variable, meaning that variation in the economic outcome causes variation in the RSV. For example, changes in poverty or environmental quality cause changes in satellite images, but not vice versa. As our main result, we nonparametrically identify the treatment effect by formalizing the intuition underlying common practice: the conditional distribution of the RSV given the outcome and treatment is stable across samples. Our identifying formula reveals that efficient inference requires predictions of three quantities from the RSV -- the outcome, treatment, and sample indicator -- whereas common practice only predicts the outcome. Valid inference does not require any rate conditions on RSV predictions, justifying the use of complex deep learning algorithms with unknown statistical properties. We reanalyze the effect of an anti-poverty program in India using satellite images.

2411.109592

Nov 2024Econometrics

Estimating Treatment Effects under Recommender Interference: A Structured Neural Networks Approach

Recommender systems are essential for content-sharing platforms by curating personalized content. To improve recommender systems, platforms frequently rely on creator-side randomized experiments to evaluate algorithm updates. We show that commonly adopted difference-in-means estimators can lead to severely biased estimates due to recommender interference, where treated and control creators compete for exposure. This bias can result in incorrect business decisions. To address this, we propose a ``recommender choice model'' that explicitly represents the interference pathway. The approach combines a structural choice framework with neural networks to account for rich viewer-content heterogeneity. Building on this foundation, we develop a debiased estimator using the double machine learning (DML) framework to adjust for errors from nuisance component estimation. We show that the estimator is $\sqrt{n}$-consistent and asymptotically normal, and we extend the DML theory to handle correlated data, which arise in our context due to overlapped items. We validate our method with a large-scale field experiment on Weixin short-video platform, using a costly double-sided randomization design to obtain an interference-free ground truth. Our results show that the proposed estimator successfully recovers this ground truth, whereas benchmark estimators exhibit substantial bias, and in some cases, yield reversed signs.

2406.143806

Jun 2024Econometrics

Inference on common trends in functional time series

We study statistical inference on unit roots and cointegration for time series in a Hilbert space. We develop statistical inference on the number of common stochastic trends embedded in the time series, i.e., the dimension of the nonstationary subspace. We also consider tests of hypotheses on the nonstationary and stationary subspaces themselves. The Hilbert space can be of an arbitrarily large dimension, and our methods remain asymptotically valid even when the time series of interest takes values in a subspace of possibly unknown dimension. This has wide applicability in practice; for example, to cointegrated vector time series that are either high-dimensional or of finite dimension, to high-dimensional factor models that include a finite number of nonstationary factors, to cointegrated curve-valued (or function-valued) time series, and to nonstationary dynamic functional factor models. We include two empirical illustrations to the term structure of interest rates and labor market indices, respectively.

2312.005902

Dec 2023Econometrics

2307.15181

On the Efficiency of Finely Stratified Experiments

This paper studies the use of finely stratified designs for the efficient estimation of a large class of treatment effect parameters that arise in the analysis of experiments. By a "finely stratified" design, we mean experiments in which units are divided into groups of a fixed size and a proportion within each group is assigned to a binary treatment uniformly at random. The class of parameters considered are those that can be expressed as the solution to a set of moment conditions constructed using a known function of the observed data. They include, among other things, average treatment effects, quantile treatment effects, and local average treatment effects as well as the counterparts to these quantities in experiments in which the unit is itself a cluster. In this setting, we establish three results. First, we show that under a finely stratified design, the naive method of moments estimator achieves the same asymptotic variance as what could typically be attained under alternative treatment assignment mechanisms only through ex post covariate adjustment. Second, we argue that the naive method of moments estimator under a finely stratified design is asymptotically efficient by deriving a lower bound on the asymptotic variance of regular estimators of the parameter of interest in the form of a convolution theorem. In this sense, finely stratified experiments are attractive because they lead to efficient estimators of treatment effect parameters "by design." Finally, we strengthen this conclusion by establishing conditions under which a "fast-balancing" property of finely stratified designs is in fact necessary for the naive method of moments estimator to attain the efficiency bound.

2307.151817

Jul 2023Econometrics

Asymptotically Unbiased Synthetic Control Methods by Moment Matching

Synthetic Control Methods (SCMs) have become a fundamental tool for comparative case studies. The core idea behind SCMs is to estimate treatment effects by predicting counterfactual outcomes for a treated unit using a weighted combination of observed outcomes from untreated units. The accuracy of these predictions is crucial for evaluating the treatment effect of a policy intervention. Subsequent research has therefore focused on estimating SC weights. In this study, we highlight a key endogeneity issue in existing SCMs-namely, the correlation between the outcomes of untreated units and the error term of the synthetic control, which leads to bias in both counterfactual outcome prediction and treatment effect estimation. To address this issue, we propose a novel SCM based on moment matching, assuming that the outcome distribution of the treated unit can be approximated by a weighted mixture of the distributions of untreated units. Under this assumption, we estimate SC weights by matching the moments of the treated outcomes with the weighted sum of the moments of the untreated outcomes. Our method offers three advantages: first, under the mixture model assumption, our estimator is asymptotically unbiased; second, this asymptotic unbiasedness reduces the mean squared error in counterfactual predictions; and third, our method provides full distributions of the treatment effect rather than just expected values, thereby broadening the applicability of SCMs. Finally, we present experimental results that demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

2307.111271

Jul 2023Econometrics

Nowcasting using regression on signatures

We introduce a new method of nowcasting using regression on path signatures. Path signatures capture the geometric properties of sequential data. Because signatures embed observations in continuous time, they naturally handle mixed frequencies and missing data. We prove theoretically, and with simulations, that regression on signatures subsumes the linear Kalman filter and retains desirable consistency properties. Nowcasting with signatures is more robust to disruptions in data series than previous methods, making it useful in stressed times (for example, during COVID-19). This approach is performant in nowcasting US GDP growth, and in nowcasting UK unemployment.

2305.1025610

May 2023Econometrics

Robust Design and Evaluation of Predictive Algorithms under Unobserved Confounding

Predictive algorithms inform consequential decisions in settings with selective labels: outcomes are observed only for units selected by past decision makers. This creates an identification problem under unobserved confounding -- when selected and unselected units differ in unobserved ways that affect outcomes. We propose a framework for robust design and evaluation of predictive algorithms that bounds how much outcomes may differ between selected and unselected units with the same observed characteristics. These bounds formalize common empirical strategies including proxy outcomes and instrumental variables. Our estimators work across bounding strategies and performance measures such as conditional likelihoods, mean square error, and true/false positive rates. Using administrative data from a large Australian financial institution, we show that varying confounding assumptions substantially affects credit risk predictions and fairness evaluations across income groups.

2212.098445

Dec 2022Econometrics

2211.09604

Cointegration with Occasionally Binding Constraints

In the literature on nonlinear cointegration, a long-standing open problem relates to how a (nonlinear) vector autoregression, which provides a unified description of the short- and long-run dynamics of a vector of time series, can generate 'nonlinear cointegration' in the profound sense of those series sharing common nonlinear stochastic trends. We consider this problem in the setting of the censored and kinked structural VAR (CKSVAR), which provides a flexible yet tractable framework within which to model time series that are subject to threshold-type nonlinearities, such as those arising due to occasionally binding constraints, of which the zero lower bound (ZLB) on short-term nominal interest rates provides a leading example. We provide a complete characterisation of how common linear and nonlinear stochastic trends may be generated in this model, via unit roots and appropriate generalisations of the usual rank conditions, providing the first extension to date of the Granger-Johansen representation theorem to a nonlinearly cointegrated setting, and thereby giving the first successful treatment of the open problem. The limiting common trend processes include regulated, censored and kinked Brownian motions, none of which have previously appeared in the literature on cointegrated VARs. Our results and running examples illustrate that the CKSVAR is capable of supporting a far richer variety of long-run behaviour than is a linear VAR, in ways that may be particularly useful for the identification of structural parameters.

2211.096043

Nov 2022Econometrics

Synthetic Blips: Generalizing Synthetic Controls for Dynamic Treatment Effects

We propose a generalization of the synthetic control and interventions methods to the setting with dynamic treatment effects. We consider the estimation of unit-specific treatment effects from panel data collected under a general treatment sequence. Here, each unit receives multiple treatments sequentially, according to an adaptive policy that depends on a latent, endogenously time-varying confounding state. Under a low-rank latent factor model assumption, we develop an identification strategy for any unit-specific mean outcome under any sequence of interventions. The latent factor model we propose admits linear time-varying and time-invariant dynamical systems as special cases. Our approach can be viewed as an identification strategy for structural nested mean models -- a widely used framework for dynamic treatment effects -- under a low-rank latent factor assumption on the blip effects. Unlike these models, however, it is more permissive in observational settings, thereby broadening its applicability. Our method, which we term synthetic blip effects, is a backwards induction process in which the blip effect of a treatment at each period and for a target unit is recursively expressed as a linear combination of the blip effects of a group of other units that received the designated treatment. This strategy avoids the combinatorial explosion in the number of units that would otherwise be required by a naive application of prior synthetic control and intervention methods in dynamic treatment settings. We provide estimation algorithms that are easy to implement in practice and yield estimators with desirable properties. Using unique Korean firm-level panel data, we demonstrate how the proposed framework can be used to estimate individualized dynamic treatment effects and to derive optimal treatment allocation rules in the context of financial support for exporting firms.

2210.110033

Oct 2022Econometrics

A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap

Many problems plague empirical Phillips curves (PCs). Among them is the hurdle that the two key components, inflation expectations and the output gap, are both unobserved. Traditional remedies include proxying for the absentees or extracting them via assumptions-heavy filtering procedures. I propose an alternative route: a Hemisphere Neural Network (HNN) whose architecture yields a final layer where components can be interpreted as latent states within a Neural PC. There are benefits. First, HNN conducts the supervised estimation of nonlinearities that arise when translating a high-dimensional set of observed regressors into latent states. Second, forecasts are economically interpretable. Among other findings, the contribution of real activity to inflation appears understated in traditional PCs. In contrast, HNN captures the 2021 upswing in inflation and attributes it to a large positive output gap starting from late 2020. The unique path of HNN's gap comes from dispensing with unemployment and GDP in favor of an amalgam of nonlinearly processed alternative tightness indicators.

2202.0414611

Feb 2022Econometrics

Weak Identification with Bounds in a Class of Minimum Distance Models

When parameters are weakly identified, bounds on the parameters may provide a valuable source of information. Existing weak identification estimation and inference results are unable to combine weak identification with bounds. Within a class of minimum distance models, this paper proposes identification-robust inference that incorporates information from bounds when parameters are weakly identified. This paper demonstrates the value of the bounds and identification-robust inference in a simple latent factor model and a simple GARCH model. This paper also demonstrates the identification-robust inference in an empirical application, a factor model for parental investments in children.

2012.112226

Dec 2020Econometrics

Binary Choice under Asymmetric Loss in a Data-Rich Environment: Theory and an Application to Algorithmic Fairness

We study the binary choice problem in a data-rich environment with asymmetric loss functions. The econometrics literature covers nonparametric binary choice problems but does not offer computationally attractive solutions in data-rich environments. The machine learning literature has many algorithms but is focused mostly on loss functions that are independent of covariates. We show that theoretically valid decisions on binary outcomes with general loss functions can be achieved via a very simple loss-based reweighting of logistic regression or state-of-the-art machine learning techniques. We apply our analysis to algorithmic fairness in pretrial detentions.

2010.084639

Oct 2020Econometrics

Related categories:

Methodology Statistical Learning Theoretical Economics Statistical Finance Machine Learning

53 papers

Content vs. Form: What Drives the Writing Score Gap Across Socioeconomic Backgrounds? A Generated Panel Approach

Students from different socioeconomic backgrounds exhibit persistent gaps in test scores, gaps that can translate into unequal educational and labor-market outcomes later in life. In many assessments, performance reflects not only what students know, but also how effectively they can communicate that knowledge. This distinction is especially salient in writing assessments, where scores jointly reward the substance of students' ideas and the way those ideas are expressed. As a result, observed score gaps may conflate differences in underlying content with differences in expressive skill. A central question, therefore, is how much of the socioeconomic-status (SES) gap in scores is driven by differences in what students say versus how they say it. We study this question using a large corpus of persuasive essays written by U.S. middle- and high-school students. We introduce a new measurement strategy that separates content from style by leveraging large language models to generate multiple stylistic variants of each essay. These rewrites preserve the underlying arguments while systematically altering surface expression, creating a "generated panel" that introduces controlled within-essay variation in style. This approach allows us to decompose SES gaps in writing scores into contributions from content and style. We find an SES gap of 0.67 points on a 1-6 scale. Approximately 69% of the gap is attributable to differences in essay content quality, Style differences account for 26% of the gap, and differences in evaluation standards across SES groups account for the remaining 5%. These patterns seems stable across demographic subgroups and writing tasks. More broadly, our approach shows how large language models can be used to generate controlled variation in observational data, enabling researchers to isolate and quantify the contributions of otherwise entangled factors.

2601.03469Jan 2026

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Detecting and Mitigating Treatment Leakage in Text-Based Causal Inference: Distillation and Sensitivity Analysis

Text-based causal inference increasingly employs textual data as proxies for unobserved confounders, yet this approach introduces a previously undertheorized source of bias: treatment leakage. Treatment leakage occurs when text intended to capture confounding information also contains signals predictive of treatment status, thereby inducing post-treatment bias in causal estimates. Critically, this problem can arise even when documents precede treatment assignment, as authors may employ future-referencing language that anticipates subsequent interventions. Despite growing recognition of this issue, no systematic methods exist for identifying and mitigating treatment leakage in text-as-confounder applications. This paper addresses this gap through three contributions. First, we provide formal statistical and set-theoretic definitions of treatment leakage that clarify when and why bias occurs. Second, we propose four text distillation methods -- similarity-based passage removal, distant supervision classification, salient feature removal, and iterative nullspace projection -- designed to eliminate treatment-predictive content while preserving confounder information. Third, we validate these methods through simulations using synthetic text and an empirical application examining International Monetary Fund structural adjustment programs and child mortality. Our findings indicate that moderate distillation optimally balances bias reduction against confounder retention, whereas overly stringent approaches degrade estimate precision.

2601.02400Dec 2025

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2512.22846

Causal-Policy Forest for End-to-End Policy Learning

This study proposes an end-to-end algorithm for policy learning in causal inference. We observe data consisting of covariates, treatment assignments, and outcomes, where only the outcome corresponding to the assigned treatment is observed. The goal of policy learning is to train a policy from the observed data, where a policy is a function that recommends an optimal treatment for each individual, to maximize the policy value. In this study, we first show that maximizing the policy value is equivalent to minimizing the mean squared error for the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) under $\{-1, 1\}$ restricted regression models. Based on this finding, we modify the causal forest, an end-to-end CATE estimation algorithm, for policy learning. We refer to our algorithm as the causal-policy forest. Our algorithm has three advantages. First, it is a simple modification of an existing, widely used CATE estimation method, therefore, it helps bridge the gap between policy learning and CATE estimation in practice. Second, while existing studies typically estimate nuisance parameters for policy learning as a separate task, our algorithm trains the policy in a more end-to-end manner. Third, as in standard decision trees and random forests, we train the models efficiently, avoiding computational intractability.

2512.22846Dec 2025

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2512.20523

ScoreMatchingRiesz: Auto-DML with Infinitesimal Classification

This study proposes Riesz representer estimation methods based on score matching. The Riesz representer is a key component in debiased machine learning for constructing $\sqrt{n}$-consistent and efficient estimators in causal inference and structural parameter estimation. To estimate the Riesz representer, direct approaches have garnered attention, such as Riesz regression and the covariate balancing propensity score. These approaches can also be interpreted as variants of direct density ratio estimation (DRE) in several applications such as average treatment effect estimation. In DRE, it is well known that flexible models can easily overfit the observed data due to the estimand and the form of the loss function. To address this issue, recent work has proposed modeling the density ratio as a product of multiple intermediate density ratios and estimating it using score-matching techniques, which are often used in the diffusion model literature. We extend score-matching-based DRE methods to Riesz representer estimation. Our proposed method not only mitigates overfitting but also provides insights for causal inference by bridging marginal effects and average policy effects through time score functions.

2512.20523Dec 2025

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Inference for Batched Adaptive Experiments

The advantages of adaptive experiments have led to their rapid adoption in economics, other fields, as well as among practitioners. However, adaptive experiments pose challenges for causal inference. This note suggests a BOLS (batched ordinary least squares) test statistic for inference of treatment effects in adaptive experiments. The statistic provides a precision-equalizing aggregation of per-period treatment-control differences under heteroskedasticity. The combined test statistic is a normalized average of heteroskedastic per-period z-statistics and can be used to construct asymptotically valid confidence intervals. We provide simulation results comparing rejection rates in the typical case with few treatment periods and few (or many) observations per batch.

2512.10156Dec 2025

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2512.08513

Minimax and Bayes Optimal Adaptive Experimental Design for Treatment Choice

We consider an adaptive experiment for treatment choice and design a minimax and Bayes optimal adaptive experiment with respect to regret. Given binary treatments, the experimenter's goal is to choose the treatment with the highest expected outcome through an adaptive experiment, in order to maximize welfare. We consider adaptive experiments that consist of two phases, the treatment allocation phase and the treatment choice phase. The experiment starts with the treatment allocation phase, where the experimenter allocates treatments to experimental subjects to gather observations. During this phase, the experimenter can adaptively update the allocation probabilities using the observations obtained in the experiment. After the allocation phase, the experimenter proceeds to the treatment choice phase, where one of the treatments is selected as the best. For this adaptive experimental procedure, we propose an adaptive experiment that splits the treatment allocation phase into two stages, where we first estimate the standard deviations and then allocate each treatment proportionally to its standard deviation. We show that this experiment, often referred to as Neyman allocation, is minimax and Bayes optimal in the sense that its regret upper bounds exactly match the lower bounds that we derive. To show this optimality, we derive minimax and Bayes lower bounds for the regret using change-of-measure arguments. Then, we evaluate the corresponding upper bounds using the central limit theorem and large deviation bounds.

2512.08513Dec 2025

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Opening the Black Box: Nowcasting Singapore's GDP Growth and its Explainability

Timely assessment of current conditions is essential especially for small, open economies such as Singapore, where external shocks transmit rapidly to domestic activity. We develop a real-time nowcasting framework for quarterly GDP growth using a high-dimensional panel of approximately 70 indicators, encompassing economic and financial indicators over 1990Q1-2023Q2. The analysis covers penalized regressions, dimensionality-reduction methods, ensemble learning algorithms, and neural architectures, benchmarked against a Random Walk, an AR(3), and a Dynamic Factor Model. The pipeline preserves temporal ordering through an expanding-window walk-forward design with Bayesian hyperparameter optimization, and uses moving block-bootstrap procedures both to construct prediction intervals and to obtain confidence bands for feature-importance measures. It adopts model-specific and XAI-based explainability tools. A Model Confidence Set procedure identifies statistically superior learners, which are then combined through simple, weighted, and exponentially weighted schemes; the resulting time-varying weights provide an interpretable representation of model contributions. Predictive ability is assessed via Giacomini-White tests. Empirical results show that penalized regressions, dimensionality-reduction models, and GRU networks consistently outperform all benchmarks, with RMSFE reductions of roughly 40-60%; aggregation delivers further gains. Feature-attribution methods highlight industrial production, external trade, and labor-market indicators as dominant drivers of Singapore's short-run growth dynamics.

2512.02092Dec 2025

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Estimation in high-dimensional linear regression: Post-Double-Autometrics as an alternative to Post-Double-Lasso

Post-Double-Lasso is becoming the most popular method for estimating linear regression models with many covariates when the purpose is to obtain an accurate estimate of a parameter of interest, such as an average treatment effect. However, this method can suffer from substantial omitted variable bias in finite sample. We propose a new method called Post-Double-Autometrics, which is based on Autometrics, and show that this method outperforms Post-Double-Lasso. Its use in a standard application of economic growth sheds new light on the hypothesis of convergence from poor to rich economies.

2511.21257Nov 2025

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Individual and group fairness in geographical partitioning

Socioeconomic segregation often arises in school districting and other contexts, causing some groups to be over- or under-represented within a particular district. This phenomenon is closely linked with disparities in opportunities and outcomes. We formulate a new class of geographical partitioning problems in which the population is heterogeneous, and it is necessary to ensure fair representation for each group at each facility. We prove that the optimal solution is a novel generalization of the additively weighted Voronoi diagram, and we propose a simple and efficient algorithm to compute it, thus resolving an open question dating back to Dvoretzky et al. (1951). The efficacy and potential for practical insight of the approach are demonstrated in a realistic case study involving seven demographic groups and $78$ district offices.

2511.19722Nov 2025

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2511.17928

Limit Theorems for Network Data without Metric Structure

This paper develops limit theorems for random variables with network dependence, without requiring that individuals in the network to be located in a Euclidean or metric space. This distinguishes our approach from most existing limit theorems in network econometrics, which are based on weak dependence concepts such as strong mixing, near-epoch dependence, and $ψ$-dependence. By relaxing the assumption of an underlying metric space, our theorems can be applied to a broader range of network data, including financial and social networks. To derive the limit theorems, we generalize the concept of functional dependence (also known as physical dependence) from time series to random variables with network dependence. Using this framework, we establish several inequalities, a law of large numbers, and central limit theorems. Furthermore, we verify the conditions for these limit theorems based on primitive assumptions for spatial autoregressive models, which are widely used in network data analysis.

2511.17928Nov 2025

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Approximate Least-Favorable Distributions and Nearly Optimal Tests via Stochastic Mirror Descent

We consider a class of hypothesis testing problems where the null hypothesis postulates $M$ distributions for the observed data, and there is only one possible distribution under the alternative. We show that one can use a stochastic mirror descent routine for convex optimization to provably obtain - after finitely many iterations - both an approximate least-favorable distribution and a nearly optimal test, in a sense we make precise. Our theoretical results yield concrete recommendations about the algorithm's implementation, including its initial condition, its step size, and the number of iterations. Importantly, our suggested algorithm can be viewed as a slight variation of the algorithm suggested by Elliott, Müller, and Watson (2015), whose theoretical performance guarantees are unknown.

2511.16925Nov 2025

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Compound Selection Decisions: An Almost SURE Approach

This paper proposes methods for producing compound selection decisions in a Gaussian sequence model. Given unknown, fixed parameters $μ_ {1:n}$ and known $σ_{1:n}$ with observations $Y_i \sim \textsf{N}(μ_i, σ_i^2)$, the decision maker would like to select a subset of indices $S$ so as to maximize utility $\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i\in S} (μ_i - K_i)$, for known costs $K_i$. Inspired by Stein's unbiased risk estimate (SURE), we introduce an almost unbiased estimator, called ASSURE, for the expected utility of a proposed decision rule. ASSURE allows a user to choose a welfare-maximizing rule from a pre-specified class by optimizing the estimated welfare, thereby producing selection decisions that borrow strength across noisy estimates. We show that ASSURE produces decision rules that are asymptotically no worse than the optimal but infeasible decision rule in the pre-specified class. We apply ASSURE to the selection of Census tracts for economic opportunity, the identification of discriminating firms, and the analysis of $p$-value decision procedures in A/B testing.

2511.11862Nov 2025

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Robust Cauchy-Based Methods for Predictive Regressions

This paper develops robust inference methods for predictive regressions that address key challenges posed by endogenously persistent or heavy-tailed regressors, as well as persistent volatility in errors. Building on the Cauchy estimation framework, we propose two novel tests: one based on $t$-statistic group inference and the other employing a hybrid approach that combines Cauchy and OLS estimation. These methods effectively mitigate size distortions that commonly arise in standard inference procedures under endogeneity, near nonstationarity, heavy tails, and persistent volatility. The proposed tests are simple to implement and applicable to both continuous- and discrete-time models. Extensive simulation experiments demonstrate favorable finite-sample performance across a range of realistic settings. An empirical application examines the predictability of excess stock returns using the dividend-price and earnings-price ratios as predictors. The results suggest that the dividend-price ratio possesses predictive power, whereas the earnings-price ratio does not significantly forecast returns.

2511.09249Nov 2025

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Unlocking the Regression Space

This paper introduces and analyzes a framework that accommodates general heterogeneity in regression modeling. It demonstrates that regression models with fixed or time-varying parameters can be estimated using the OLS and time-varying OLS methods, respectively, across a broad class of regressors and noise processes not covered by existing theory. The proposed setting facilitates the development of asymptotic theory and the estimation of robust standard errors. The robust confidence interval estimators accommodate substantial heterogeneity in both regressors and noise. The resulting robust standard error estimates coincide with White's (1980) heteroskedasticity-consistent estimator but are applicable to a broader range of conditions, including models with missing data. They are computationally simple and perform well in Monte Carlo simulations. Their robustness, generality, and ease of implementation make them highly suitable for empirical applications. Finally, the paper provides a brief empirical illustration.

2511.07183Nov 2025

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Training and Testing with Multiple Splits: A Central Limit Theorem for Split-Sample Estimators

As predictive algorithms grow in popularity, using the same dataset to both train and test a new model has become routine across research, policy, and industry. Sample-splitting attains valid inference on model properties by using separate subsamples to estimate the model and to evaluate it. However, this approach has two drawbacks, since each task uses only part of the data, and different splits can lead to widely different estimates. Averaging across multiple splits, I develop an inference approach that uses more data for training, uses the entire sample for testing, and improves reproducibility. I address the statistical dependence from reusing observations across splits by proving a new central limit theorem for a large class of split-sample estimators under arguably mild and general conditions. Importantly, I make no restrictions on model complexity or convergence rates. I show that confidence intervals based on the normal approximation are valid for many applications, but may undercover in important cases of interest, such as comparing the performance between two models. I develop a new inference approach for such cases, explicitly accounting for the dependence across splits. Moreover, I provide a measure of reproducibility for p-values obtained from split-sample estimators. Finally, I apply my results to two important problems in development and public economics: predicting poverty and learning heterogeneous treatment effects in randomized experiments. I show that my inference approach with repeated cross-fitting achieves better power than existing alternatives, often enough to reveal statistical significance that would otherwise be missed.

2511.04957Nov 2025

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2511.01680

Making Interpretable Discoveries from Unstructured Data: A High-Dimensional Multiple Hypothesis Testing Approach

Social scientists are increasingly turning to unstructured datasets to unlock new empirical insights, e.g., estimating causal effects on text outcomes, measuring beliefs from open-ended survey responses. In such settings, unsupervised analysis is often of interest, in that the researcher does not want to pre-specify the objects of measurement or otherwise artificially delimit the space of measurable concepts; they are interested in discovery. This paper proposes a general and flexible framework for pursuing discovery from unstructured data in a statistically principled way. The framework leverages recent methods from the literature on machine learning interpretability to map unstructured data points to high-dimensional, sparse, and interpretable dictionaries of concepts; computes (test) statistics of these dictionary entries; and then performs selective inference on them using newly developed statistical procedures for high-dimensional exceedance control of the $k$-FWER under arbitrary dependence. The proposed framework has few researcher degrees of freedom, is fully replicable, and is cheap to implement -- both in terms of financial cost and researcher time. Applications to recent descriptive and causal analyses of unstructured data in empirical economics are explored. An open source Jupyter notebook is provided for researchers to implement the framework in their own projects.

2511.01680Nov 2025

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2511.00324

Residual Balancing for Non-Linear Outcome Models in High Dimensions

We extend the approximate residual balancing (ARB) framework to nonlinear models, answering an open problem posed by Athey et al. (2018). Our approach addresses the challenge of estimating average treatment effects in high-dimensional settings where the outcome follows a generalized linear model. We derive a new bias decomposition for nonlinear models that reveals the need for a second-order correction to account for the curvature of the link function. Based on this insight, we construct balancing weights through an optimization problem that controls for both first and second-order sources of bias. We provide theoretical guarantees for our estimator, establishing its $\sqrt{n}$-consistency and asymptotic normality under standard high-dimensional assumptions.

2511.00324Oct 2025

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2510.24433

Nearest Neighbor Matching as Least Squares Density Ratio Estimation and Riesz Regression

2510.244335Oct 2025

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Direct Debiased Machine Learning via Bregman Divergence Minimization

2510.235345Oct 2025

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Macroeconomic Forecasting for the G7 countries under Uncertainty Shocks

Accurate macroeconomic forecasting has become harder amid geopolitical disruptions, policy reversals, and volatile financial markets. Conventional vector autoregressions (VARs) overfit in high dimensional settings, while threshold VARs struggle with time varying interdependencies and complex parameter structures. We address these limitations by extending the Sims Zha Bayesian VAR with exogenous variables (SZBVARx) to incorporate domain-informed shrinkage and four newspaper based uncertainty shocks such as economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, US equity market volatility, and US monetary policy uncertainty. The framework improves structural interpretability, mitigates dimensionality, and imposes empirically guided regularization. Using G7 data, we study spillovers from uncertainty shocks to five core variables (unemployment, real broad effective exchange rates, short term rates, oil prices, and CPI inflation), combining wavelet coherence (time frequency dynamics) with nonlinear local projections (state dependent impulse responses). Out-of-sample results at 12 and 24 month horizons show that SZBVARx outperforms 14 benchmarks, including classical VARs and leading machine learning models, as confirmed by Murphy difference diagrams, multivariate Diebold Mariano tests, and Giacomini White predictability tests. Credible Bayesian prediction intervals deliver robust uncertainty quantification for scenario analysis and risk management. The proposed SZBVARx offers G7 policymakers a transparent, well calibrated tool for modern macroeconomic forecasting under pervasive uncertainty.

2510.23347Oct 2025

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