Machine Learning

Neural networks, deep learning, statistical learning, and optimization methods

Includes:Machine Learning(cs.LG)Statistical Learning(stat.ML)Neural and Evolutionary Computing(cs.NE)

Trending in Machine Learning

From Entropy to Epiplexity: Rethinking Information for Computationally Bounded Intelligence

Can we learn more from data than existed in the generating process itself? Can new and useful information be constructed from merely applying deterministic transformations to existing data? Can the learnable content in data be evaluated without considering a downstream task? On these questions, Shannon information and Kolmogorov complexity come up nearly empty-handed, in part because they assume observers with unlimited computational capacity and fail to target the useful information content. In this work, we identify and exemplify three seeming paradoxes in information theory: (1) information cannot be increased by deterministic transformations; (2) information is independent of the order of data; (3) likelihood modeling is merely distribution matching. To shed light on the tension between these results and modern practice, and to quantify the value of data, we introduce epiplexity, a formalization of information capturing what computationally bounded observers can learn from data. Epiplexity captures the structural content in data while excluding time-bounded entropy, the random unpredictable content exemplified by pseudorandom number generators and chaotic dynamical systems. With these concepts, we demonstrate how information can be created with computation, how it depends on the ordering of the data, and how likelihood modeling can produce more complex programs than present in the data generating process itself. We also present practical procedures to estimate epiplexity which we show capture differences across data sources, track with downstream performance, and highlight dataset interventions that improve out-of-distribution generalization. In contrast to principles of model selection, epiplexity provides a theoretical foundation for data selection, guiding how to select, generate, or transform data for learning systems.

2601.03220

Jan 2026Machine Learning

WebGym: Scaling Training Environments for Visual Web Agents with Realistic Tasks

We present WebGym, the largest-to-date open-source environment for training realistic visual web agents. Real websites are non-stationary and diverse, making artificial or small-scale task sets insufficient for robust policy learning. WebGym contains nearly 300,000 tasks with rubric-based evaluations across diverse, real-world websites and difficulty levels. We train agents with a simple reinforcement learning (RL) recipe, which trains on the agent's own interaction traces (rollouts), using task rewards as feedback to guide learning. To enable scaling RL, we speed up sampling of trajectories in WebGym by developing a high-throughput asynchronous rollout system, designed specifically for web agents. Our system achieves a 4-5x rollout speedup compared to naive implementations. Second, we scale the task set breadth, depth, and size, which results in continued performance improvement. Fine-tuning a strong base vision-language model, Qwen-3-VL-8B-Instruct, on WebGym results in an improvement in success rate on an out-of-distribution test set from 26.2% to 42.9%, significantly outperforming agents based on proprietary models such as GPT-4o and GPT-5-Thinking that achieve 27.1% and 29.8%, respectively. This improvement is substantial because our test set consists only of tasks on websites never seen during training, unlike many other prior works on training visual web agents.

2601.02439

Jan 2026Machine Learning

Entropy-Adaptive Fine-Tuning: Resolving Confident Conflicts to Mitigate Forgetting

Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) is the standard paradigm for domain adaptation, yet it frequently incurs the cost of catastrophic forgetting. In sharp contrast, on-policy Reinforcement Learning (RL) effectively preserves general capabilities. We investigate this discrepancy and identify a fundamental distributional gap: while RL aligns with the model's internal belief, SFT forces the model to fit external supervision. This mismatch often manifests as "Confident Conflicts" tokens characterized by low probability but low entropy. In these instances, the model is highly confident in its own prediction but is forced to learn a divergent ground truth, triggering destructive gradient updates. To address this, we propose Entropy-Adaptive Fine-Tuning (EAFT). Unlike methods relying solely on prediction probability, EAFT utilizes token-level entropy as a gating mechanism to distinguish between epistemic uncertainty and knowledge conflict. This allows the model to learn from uncertain samples while suppressing gradients on conflicting data. Extensive experiments on Qwen and GLM series (ranging from 4B to 32B parameters) across mathematical, medical, and agentic domains confirm our hypothesis. EAFT consistently matches the downstream performance of standard SFT while significantly mitigating the degradation of general capabilities.

2601.02151

Jan 2026Machine Learning

One Sample to Rule Them All: Extreme Data Efficiency in RL Scaling

The reasoning ability of large language models (LLMs) can be unleashed with reinforcement learning (RL) (OpenAI, 2024; DeepSeek-AI et al., 2025a; Zeng et al., 2025). The success of existing RL attempts in LLMs usually relies on high-quality samples of thousands or beyond. In this paper, we challenge fundamental assumptions about data requirements in RL for LLMs by demonstrating the remarkable effectiveness of one-shot learning. Specifically, we introduce polymath learning, a framework for designing one training sample that elicits multidisciplinary impact. We present three key findings: (1) A single, strategically selected math reasoning sample can produce significant performance improvements across multiple domains, including physics, chemistry, and biology with RL; (2) The math skills salient to reasoning suggest the characteristics of the optimal polymath sample; and (3) An engineered synthetic sample that integrates multidiscipline elements outperforms training with individual samples that naturally occur. Our approach achieves superior performance to training with larger datasets across various reasoning benchmarks, demonstrating that sample quality and design, rather than quantity, may be the key to unlock enhanced reasoning capabilities in language models. Our results suggest a shift, dubbed as sample engineering, toward precision engineering of training samples rather than simply increasing data volume.

2601.03111

Jan 2026Machine Learning

Multi-Distribution Robust Conformal Prediction

In many fairness and distribution robustness problems, one has access to labeled data from multiple source distributions yet the test data may come from an arbitrary member or a mixture of them. We study the problem of constructing a conformal prediction set that is uniformly valid across multiple, heterogeneous distributions, in the sense that no matter which distribution the test point is from, the coverage of the prediction set is guaranteed to exceed a pre-specified level. We first propose a max-p aggregation scheme that delivers finite-sample, multi-distribution coverage given any conformity scores associated with each distribution. Upon studying several efficiency optimization programs subject to uniform coverage, we prove the optimality and tightness of our aggregation scheme, and propose a general algorithm to learn conformity scores that lead to efficient prediction sets after the aggregation under standard conditions. We discuss how our framework relates to group-wise distributionally robust optimization, sub-population shift, fairness, and multi-source learning. In synthetic and real-data experiments, our method delivers valid worst-case coverage across multiple distributions while greatly reducing the set size compared with naively applying max-p aggregation to single-source conformity scores, and can be comparable in size to single-source prediction sets with popular, standard conformity scores.

2601.02998

Jan 2026Machine Learning

DatBench: Discriminative, Faithful, and Efficient VLM Evaluations

Empirical evaluation serves as the primary compass guiding research progress in foundation models. Despite a large body of work focused on training frontier vision-language models (VLMs), approaches to their evaluation remain nascent. To guide their maturation, we propose three desiderata that evaluations should satisfy: (1) faithfulness to the modality and application, (2) discriminability between models of varying quality, and (3) efficiency in compute. Through this lens, we identify critical failure modes that violate faithfulness and discriminability, misrepresenting model capabilities: (i) multiple-choice formats reward guessing, poorly reflect downstream use cases, and saturate early as models improve; (ii) blindly solvable questions, which can be answered without images, constitute up to 70% of some evaluations; and (iii) mislabeled or ambiguous samples compromise up to 42% of examples in certain datasets. Regarding efficiency, the computational burden of evaluating frontier models has become prohibitive: by some accounts, nearly 20% of development compute is devoted to evaluation alone. Rather than discarding existing benchmarks, we curate them via transformation and filtering to maximize fidelity and discriminability. We find that converting multiple-choice questions to generative tasks reveals sharp capability drops of up to 35%. In addition, filtering blindly solvable and mislabeled samples improves discriminative power while simultaneously reducing computational cost. We release DatBench-Full, a cleaned evaluation suite of 33 datasets spanning nine VLM capabilities, and DatBench, a discriminative subset that achieves 13x average speedup (up to 50x) while closely matching the discriminative power of the original datasets. Our work outlines a path toward evaluation practices that are both rigorous and sustainable as VLMs continue to scale.

2601.02316

Jan 2026Machine Learning

From Memorization to Creativity: LLM as a Designer of Novel Neural-Architectures

Large language models (LLMs) excel in program synthesis, yet their ability to autonomously navigate neural architecture design--balancing syntactic reliability, performance, and structural novelty--remains underexplored. We address this by placing a code-oriented LLM within a closed-loop synthesis framework, analyzing its evolution over 22 supervised fine-tuning cycles. The model synthesizes PyTorch convolutional networks which are validated, evaluated via low-fidelity performance signals (single-epoch accuracy), and filtered using a MinHash-Jaccard criterion to prevent structural redundancy. High-performing, novel architectures are converted into prompt-code pairs for iterative fine-tuning via parameter-efficient LoRA adaptation, initialized from the LEMUR dataset. Across cycles, the LLM internalizes empirical architectural priors, becoming a robust generator. The valid generation rate stabilizes at 50.6 percent (peaking at 74.5 percent), while mean first-epoch accuracy rises from 28.06 percent to 50.99 percent, and the fraction of candidates exceeding 40 percent accuracy grows from 2.04 percent to 96.81 percent. Analyses confirm the model moves beyond replicating existing motifs, synthesizing 455 high-performing architectures absent from the original corpus. By grounding code synthesis in execution feedback, this work provides a scalable blueprint for transforming stochastic generators into autonomous, performance-driven neural designers, establishing that LLMs can internalize empirical, non-textual rewards to transcend their training data.

2601.02997

Jan 2026Machine Learning

GDRO: Group-level Reward Post-training Suitable for Diffusion Models

Recent advancements adopt online reinforcement learning (RL) from LLMs to text-to-image rectified flow diffusion models for reward alignment. The use of group-level rewards successfully aligns the model with the targeted reward. However, it faces challenges including low efficiency, dependency on stochastic samplers, and reward hacking. The problem is that rectified flow models are fundamentally different from LLMs: 1) For efficiency, online image sampling takes much more time and dominates the time of training. 2) For stochasticity, rectified flow is deterministic once the initial noise is fixed. Aiming at these problems and inspired by the effects of group-level rewards from LLMs, we design Group-level Direct Reward Optimization (GDRO). GDRO is a new post-training paradigm for group-level reward alignment that combines the characteristics of rectified flow models. Through rigorous theoretical analysis, we point out that GDRO supports full offline training that saves the large time cost for image rollout sampling. Also, it is diffusion-sampler-independent, which eliminates the need for the ODE-to-SDE approximation to obtain stochasticity. We also empirically study the reward hacking trap that may mislead the evaluation, and involve this factor in the evaluation using a corrected score that not only considers the original evaluation reward but also the trend of reward hacking. Extensive experiments demonstrate that GDRO effectively and efficiently improves the reward score of the diffusion model through group-wise offline optimization across the OCR and GenEval tasks, while demonstrating strong stability and robustness in mitigating reward hacking.

2601.02036

Jan 2026Machine Learning

Chronicals: A High-Performance Framework for LLM Fine-Tuning with 3.51x Speedup over Unsloth

Large language model fine-tuning is bottlenecked by memory: a 7B parameter model requires 84GB--14GB for weights, 14GB for gradients, and 56GB for FP32 optimizer states--exceeding even A100-40GB capacity. We present Chronicals, an open-source training framework achieving 3.51x speedup over Unsloth through four synergistic optimizations: (1) fused Triton kernels eliminating 75% of memory traffic via RMSNorm (7x), SwiGLU (5x), and QK-RoPE (2.3x) fusion; (2) Cut Cross-Entropy reducing logit memory from 5GB to 135MB through online softmax computation; (3) LoRA+ with theoretically-derived 16x differential learning rates between adapter matrices; and (4) Best-Fit Decreasing sequence packing recovering 60-75% of compute wasted on padding. On Qwen2.5-0.5B with A100-40GB, Chronicals achieves 41,184 tokens/second for full fine-tuning versus Unsloth's 11,736 tokens/second (3.51x). For LoRA at rank 32, we reach 11,699 tokens/second versus Unsloth MAX's 2,857 tokens/second (4.10x). Critically, we discovered that Unsloth's reported 46,000 tokens/second benchmark exhibited zero gradient norms--the model was not training. We provide complete mathematical foundations: online softmax correctness proofs, FlashAttention IO complexity bounds O(N^2 d^2 M^{-1}), LoRA+ learning rate derivations from gradient magnitude analysis, and bin-packing approximation guarantees. All implementations, benchmarks, and proofs are available at https://github.com/Ajwebdevs/Chronicals with pip installation via https://pypi.org/project/chronicals/.

2601.02609

Jan 2026Machine Learning

Why LLMs Aren't Scientists Yet: Lessons from Four Autonomous Research Attempts

We report a case study of four end-to-end attempts to autonomously generate ML research papers using a pipeline of six LLM agents mapped to stages of the scientific workflow. Of these four, three attempts failed during implementation or evaluation. One completed the pipeline and was accepted to Agents4Science 2025, an experimental inaugural venue that required AI systems as first authors, passing both human and multi-AI review. From these attempts, we document six recurring failure modes: bias toward training data defaults, implementation drift under execution pressure, memory and context degradation across long-horizon tasks, overexcitement that declares success despite obvious failures, insufficient domain intelligence, and weak scientific taste in experimental design. We conclude by discussing four design principles for more robust AI-scientist systems, implications for autonomous scientific discovery, and we release all prompts, artifacts, and outputs at https://github.com/Lossfunk/ai-scientist-artefacts-v1

2601.03315

Jan 2026Machine Learning

In-Context Reinforcement Learning through Bayesian Fusion of Context and Value Prior

In-context reinforcement learning (ICRL) promises fast adaptation to unseen environments without parameter updates, but current methods either cannot improve beyond the training distribution or require near-optimal data, limiting practical adoption. We introduce SPICE, a Bayesian ICRL method that learns a prior over Q-values via deep ensemble and updates this prior at test-time using in-context information through Bayesian updates. To recover from poor priors resulting from training on sub-optimal data, our online inference follows an Upper-Confidence Bound rule that favours exploration and adaptation. We prove that SPICE achieves regret-optimal behaviour in both stochastic bandits and finite-horizon MDPs, even when pretrained only on suboptimal trajectories. We validate these findings empirically across bandit and control benchmarks. SPICE achieves near-optimal decisions on unseen tasks, substantially reduces regret compared to prior ICRL and meta-RL approaches while rapidly adapting to unseen tasks and remaining robust under distribution shift.

2601.03015

Jan 2026Machine Learning

Agentic Rubrics as Contextual Verifiers for SWE Agents

Verification is critical for improving agents: it provides the reward signal for Reinforcement Learning and enables inference-time gains through Test-Time Scaling (TTS). Despite its importance, verification in software engineering (SWE) agent settings often relies on code execution, which can be difficult to scale due to environment setup overhead. Scalable alternatives such as patch classifiers and heuristic methods exist, but they are less grounded in codebase context and harder to interpret. To this end, we explore Agentic Rubrics: an expert agent interacts with the repository to create a context-grounded rubric checklist, and candidate patches are then scored against it without requiring test execution. On SWE-Bench Verified under parallel TTS evaluation, Agentic Rubrics achieve a score of 54.2% on Qwen3-Coder-30B-A3B and 40.6% on Qwen3-32B, with at least a +3.5 percentage-point gain over the strongest baseline in our comparison set. We further analyze rubric behavior, showing that rubric scores are consistent with ground-truth tests while also flagging issues that tests do not capture. Our ablations show that agentic context gathering is essential for producing codebase-specific, unambiguous criteria. Together, these results suggest that Agentic Rubrics provide an efficient, scalable, and granular verification signal for SWE agents.

2601.04171

Jan 2026Machine Learning

Scaling Open-Ended Reasoning to Predict the Future

High-stakes decision making involves reasoning under uncertainty about the future. In this work, we train language models to make predictions on open-ended forecasting questions. To scale up training data, we synthesize novel forecasting questions from global events reported in daily news, using a fully automated, careful curation recipe. We train the Qwen3 thinking models on our dataset, OpenForesight. To prevent leakage of future information during training and evaluation, we use an offline news corpus, both for data generation and retrieval in our forecasting system. Guided by a small validation set, we show the benefits of retrieval, and an improved reward function for reinforcement learning (RL). Once we obtain our final forecasting system, we perform held-out testing between May to August 2025. Our specialized model, OpenForecaster 8B, matches much larger proprietary models, with our training improving the accuracy, calibration, and consistency of predictions. We find calibration improvements from forecasting training generalize across popular benchmarks. We open-source all our models, code, and data to make research on language model forecasting broadly accessible.

2512.25070

Dec 2025Machine Learning

Deep Delta Learning

The efficacy of deep residual networks is fundamentally predicated on the identity shortcut connection. While this mechanism effectively mitigates the vanishing gradient problem, it imposes a strictly additive inductive bias on feature transformations, thereby limiting the network's capacity to model complex state transitions. In this paper, we introduce Deep Delta Learning (DDL), a novel architecture that generalizes the standard residual connection by modulating the identity shortcut with a learnable, data-dependent geometric transformation. This transformation, termed the Delta Operator, constitutes a rank-1 perturbation of the identity matrix, parameterized by a reflection direction vector $\mathbf{k}(\mathbf{X})$ and a gating scalar $β(\mathbf{X})$. We provide a spectral analysis of this operator, demonstrating that the gate $β(\mathbf{X})$ enables dynamic interpolation between identity mapping, orthogonal projection, and geometric reflection. Furthermore, we restructure the residual update as a synchronous rank-1 injection, where the gate acts as a dynamic step size governing both the erasure of old information and the writing of new features. This unification empowers the network to explicitly control the spectrum of its layer-wise transition operator, enabling the modeling of complex, non-monotonic dynamics while preserving the stable training characteristics of gated residual architectures.

2601.004171

Jan 2026Machine Learning

FOREVER: Forgetting Curve-Inspired Memory Replay for Language Model Continual Learning

Continual learning (CL) for large language models (LLMs) aims to enable sequential knowledge acquisition without catastrophic forgetting. Memory replay methods are widely used for their practicality and effectiveness, but most rely on fixed, step-based heuristics that often misalign with the model's actual learning progress, since identical training steps can result in varying degrees of parameter change. Motivated by recent findings that LLM forgetting mirrors the Ebbinghaus human forgetting curve, we propose FOREVER (FORgEtting curVe-inspired mEmory Replay), a novel CL framework that aligns replay schedules with a model-centric notion of time. FOREVER defines model time using the magnitude of optimizer updates, allowing forgetting curve-inspired replay intervals to align with the model's internal evolution rather than raw training steps. Building on this approach, FOREVER incorporates a forgetting curve-based replay scheduler to determine when to replay and an intensity-aware regularization mechanism to adaptively control how to replay. Extensive experiments on three CL benchmarks and models ranging from 0.6B to 13B parameters demonstrate that FOREVER consistently mitigates catastrophic forgetting.

2601.03938

Jan 2026Machine Learning

Nested Learning: The Illusion of Deep Learning Architectures

Despite the recent progresses, particularly in developing Language Models, there are fundamental challenges and unanswered questions about how such models can continually learn/memorize, self-improve, and find effective solutions. In this paper, we present a new learning paradigm, called Nested Learning (NL), that coherently represents a machine learning model with a set of nested, multi-level, and/or parallel optimization problems, each of which with its own context flow. Through the lenses of NL, existing deep learning methods learns from data through compressing their own context flow, and in-context learning naturally emerges in large models. NL suggests a philosophy to design more expressive learning algorithms with more levels, resulting in higher-order in-context learning and potentially unlocking effective continual learning capabilities. We advocate for NL by presenting three core contributions: (1) Expressive Optimizers: We show that known gradient-based optimizers, such as Adam, SGD with Momentum, etc., are in fact associative memory modules that aim to compress the gradients' information (by gradient descent). Building on this insight, we present other more expressive optimizers with deep memory and/or more powerful learning rules; (2) Self-Modifying Learning Module: Taking advantage of NL's insights on learning algorithms, we present a sequence model that learns how to modify itself by learning its own update algorithm; and (3) Continuum Memory System: We present a new formulation for memory system that generalizes the traditional viewpoint of long/short-term memory. Combining our self-modifying sequence model with the continuum memory system, we present a continual learning module, called Hope, showing promising results in language modeling, knowledge incorporation, and few-shot generalization tasks, continual learning, and long-context reasoning tasks.

2512.246956

Dec 2025Machine Learning

Dynamic Large Concept Models: Latent Reasoning in an Adaptive Semantic Space

Large Language Models (LLMs) apply uniform computation to all tokens, despite language exhibiting highly non-uniform information density. This token-uniform regime wastes capacity on locally predictable spans while under-allocating computation to semantically critical transitions. We propose $\textbf{Dynamic Large Concept Models (DLCM)}$, a hierarchical language modeling framework that learns semantic boundaries from latent representations and shifts computation from tokens to a compressed concept space where reasoning is more efficient. DLCM discovers variable-length concepts end-to-end without relying on predefined linguistic units. Hierarchical compression fundamentally changes scaling behavior. We introduce the first $\textbf{compression-aware scaling law}$, which disentangles token-level capacity, concept-level reasoning capacity, and compression ratio, enabling principled compute allocation under fixed FLOPs. To stably train this heterogeneous architecture, we further develop a $\textbf{decoupled $μ$P parametrization}$ that supports zero-shot hyperparameter transfer across widths and compression regimes. At a practical setting ($R=4$, corresponding to an average of four tokens per concept), DLCM reallocates roughly one-third of inference compute into a higher-capacity reasoning backbone, achieving a $\textbf{+2.69$\%$ average improvement}$ across 12 zero-shot benchmarks under matched inference FLOPs.

2512.24617

Dec 2025Machine Learning

Avatar Forcing: Real-Time Interactive Head Avatar Generation for Natural Conversation

Talking head generation creates lifelike avatars from static portraits for virtual communication and content creation. However, current models do not yet convey the feeling of truly interactive communication, often generating one-way responses that lack emotional engagement. We identify two key challenges toward truly interactive avatars: generating motion in real-time under causal constraints and learning expressive, vibrant reactions without additional labeled data. To address these challenges, we propose Avatar Forcing, a new framework for interactive head avatar generation that models real-time user-avatar interactions through diffusion forcing. This design allows the avatar to process real-time multimodal inputs, including the user's audio and motion, with low latency for instant reactions to both verbal and non-verbal cues such as speech, nods, and laughter. Furthermore, we introduce a direct preference optimization method that leverages synthetic losing samples constructed by dropping user conditions, enabling label-free learning of expressive interaction. Experimental results demonstrate that our framework enables real-time interaction with low latency (approximately 500ms), achieving 6.8X speedup compared to the baseline, and produces reactive and expressive avatar motion, which is preferred over 80% against the baseline.

2601.00664

Jan 2026Machine Learning

IRPO: Scaling the Bradley-Terry Model via Reinforcement Learning

Generative Reward Models (GRMs) have attracted considerable research interest in reward modeling due to their interpretability, inference-time scalability, and potential for refinement through reinforcement learning (RL). However, widely used pairwise GRMs create a computational bottleneck when integrated with RL algorithms such as Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). This bottleneck arises from two factors: (i) the O(n^2) time complexity of pairwise comparisons required to obtain relative scores, and (ii) the computational overhead of repeated sampling or additional chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning to improve performance. To address the first factor, we propose Intergroup Relative Preference Optimization (IRPO), a novel RL framework that incorporates the well-established Bradley-Terry model into GRPO. By generating a pointwise score for each response, IRPO enables efficient evaluation of arbitrarily many candidates during RL training while preserving interpretability and fine-grained reward signals. Experimental results demonstrate that IRPO achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance among pointwise GRMs across multiple benchmarks, with performance comparable to that of current leading pairwise GRMs. Furthermore, we show that IRPO significantly outperforms pairwise GRMs in post-training evaluations.

2601.00677

Jan 2026Machine Learning

Training AI Co-Scientists Using Rubric Rewards

AI co-scientists are emerging as a tool to assist human researchers in achieving their research goals. A crucial feature of these AI co-scientists is the ability to generate a research plan given a set of aims and constraints. The plan may be used by researchers for brainstorming, or may even be implemented after further refinement. However, language models currently struggle to generate research plans that follow all constraints and implicit requirements. In this work, we study how to leverage the vast corpus of existing research papers to train language models that generate better research plans. We build a scalable, diverse training corpus by automatically extracting research goals and goal-specific grading rubrics from papers across several domains. We then train models for research plan generation via reinforcement learning with self-grading. A frozen copy of the initial policy acts as the grader during training, with the rubrics creating a generator-verifier gap that enables improvements without external human supervision. To validate this approach, we conduct a study with human experts for machine learning research goals, spanning 225 hours. The experts prefer plans generated by our finetuned Qwen3-30B-A3B model over the initial model for 70% of research goals, and approve 84% of the automatically extracted goal-specific grading rubrics. To assess generality, we also extend our approach to research goals from medical papers, and new arXiv preprints, evaluating with a jury of frontier models. Our finetuning yields 12-22% relative improvements and significant cross-domain generalization, proving effective even in problem settings like medical research where execution feedback is infeasible. Together, these findings demonstrate the potential of a scalable, automated training recipe as a step towards improving general AI co-scientists.

2512.23707

Dec 2025Machine Learning

17,713 papers

Lightweight Test-Time Adaptation for EMG-Based Gesture Recognition

Reliable long-term decoding of surface electromyography (EMG) is hindered by signal drift caused by electrode shifts, muscle fatigue, and posture changes. While state-of-the-art models achieve high intra-session accuracy, their performance often degrades sharply. Existing solutions typically demand large datasets or high-compute pipelines that are impractical for energy-efficient wearables. We propose a lightweight framework for Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) using a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) backbone. We introduce three deployment-ready strategies: (i) causal adaptive batch normalization for real-time statistical alignment; (ii) a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) alignment with experience replay to prevent forgetting; and (iii) meta-learning for rapid, few-shot calibration. Evaluated on the NinaPro DB6 multi-session dataset, our framework significantly bridges the inter-session accuracy gap with minimal overhead. Our results show that experience-replay updates yield superior stability under limited data, while meta-learning achieves competitive performance in one- and two-shot regimes using only a fraction of the data required by current benchmarks. This work establishes a path toward robust, "plug-and-play" myoelectric control for long-term prosthetic use.

2601.04181Jan 2026

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Robust Physics Discovery from Highly Corrupted Data: A PINN Framework Applied to the Nonlinear Schrödinger Equation

We demonstrate a deep learning framework capable of recovering physical parameters from the Nonlinear Schrodinger Equation (NLSE) under severe noise conditions. By integrating Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) with automatic differentiation, we achieve reconstruction of the nonlinear coefficient beta with less than 0.2 percent relative error using only 500 sparse, randomly sampled data points corrupted by 20 percent additive Gaussian noise, a regime where traditional finite difference methods typically fail due to noise amplification in numerical derivatives. We validate the method's generalization capabilities across different physical regimes (beta between 0.5 and 2.0) and varying data availability (between 100 and 1000 training points), demonstrating consistent sub-1 percent accuracy. Statistical analysis over multiple independent runs confirms robustness (standard deviation less than 0.15 percent for beta equals 1.0). The complete pipeline executes in approximately 80 minutes on modest cloud GPU resources (NVIDIA Tesla T4), making the approach accessible for widespread adoption. Our results indicate that physics-based regularization acts as an effective filter against high measurement uncertainty, positioning PINNs as a viable alternative to traditional optimization methods for inverse problems in spatiotemporal dynamics where experimental data is scarce and noisy. All code is made publicly available to facilitate reproducibility.

2601.04176Jan 2026

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Agentic Rubrics as Contextual Verifiers for SWE Agents

2601.04171Jan 2026

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Clinical Data Goes MEDS? Let's OWL make sense of it

The application of machine learning on healthcare data is often hindered by the lack of standardized and semantically explicit representation, leading to limited interoperability and reproducibility across datasets and experiments. The Medical Event Data Standard (MEDS) addresses these issues by introducing a minimal, event-centric data model designed for reproducible machine-learning workflows from health data. However, MEDS is defined as a data-format specification and does not natively provide integration with the Semantic Web ecosystem. In this article, we introduce MEDS-OWL, a lightweight OWL ontology that provides formal concepts and relations to enable representing MEDS datasets as RDF graphs. Additionally, we implemented meds2rdf, a Python conversion library that transforms MEDS events into RDF graphs, ensuring conformance with the ontology. We demonstrate the approach on a synthetic clinical dataset that describes patient care pathways for ruptured intracranial aneurysms and validate the resulting graph using SHACL constraints. The first release of MEDS-OWL comprises 13 classes, 10 object properties, 20 data properties, and 24 OWL axioms. Combined with meds2rdf, it enables data transformation into FAIR-aligned datasets, provenance-aware publishing, and interoperability of event-based clinical data. By bridging MEDS with the Semantic Web, this work contributes a reusable semantic layer for event-based clinical data and establishes a robust foundation for subsequent graph-based analytics.

2601.04164Jan 2026

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A Theoretical and Empirical Taxonomy of Imbalance in Binary Classification

Class imbalance significantly degrades classification performance, yet its effects are rarely analyzed from a unified theoretical perspective. We propose a principled framework based on three fundamental scales: the imbalance coefficient $η$, the sample--dimension ratio $κ$, and the intrinsic separability $Δ$. Starting from the Gaussian Bayes classifier, we derive closed-form Bayes errors and show how imbalance shifts the discriminant boundary, yielding a deterioration slope that predicts four regimes: Normal, Mild, Extreme, and Catastrophic. Using a balanced high-dimensional genomic dataset, we vary only $η$ while keeping $κ$ and $Δ$ fixed. Across parametric and non-parametric models, empirical degradation closely follows theoretical predictions: minority Recall collapses once $\log(η)$ exceeds $Δ\sqrtκ$, Precision increases asymmetrically, and F1-score and PR-AUC decline in line with the predicted regimes. These results show that the triplet $(η,κ,Δ)$ provides a model-agnostic, geometrically grounded explanation of imbalance-induced deterioration.

2601.04149Jan 2026

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MORPHFED: Federated Learning for Cross-institutional Blood Morphology Analysis

Automated blood morphology analysis can support hematological diagnostics in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) but remains sensitive to dataset shifts from staining variability, imaging differences, and rare morphologies. Building centralized datasets to capture this diversity is often infeasible due to privacy regulations and data-sharing restrictions. We introduce a federated learning framework for white blood cell morphology analysis that enables collaborative training across institutions without exchanging training data. Using blood films from multiple clinical sites, our federated models learn robust, domain-invariant representations while preserving complete data privacy. Evaluations across convolutional and transformer-based architectures show that federated training achieves strong cross-site performance and improved generalization to unseen institutions compared to centralized training. These findings highlight federated learning as a practical and privacy-preserving approach for developing equitable, scalable, and generalizable medical imaging AI in resource-limited healthcare environments.

2601.04121Jan 2026

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Causal Data Augmentation for Robust Fine-Tuning of Tabular Foundation Models

Fine-tuning tabular foundation models (TFMs) under data scarcity is challenging, as early stopping on even scarcer validation data often fails to capture true generalization performance. We propose CausalMixFT, a method that enhances fine-tuning robustness and downstream performance by generating structurally consistent synthetic samples using Structural Causal Models (SCMs) fitted on the target dataset. This approach augments limited real data with causally informed synthetic examples, preserving feature dependencies while expanding training diversity. Evaluated across 33 classification datasets from TabArena and over 2300 fine-tuning runs, our CausalMixFT method consistently improves median normalized ROC-AUC from 0.10 (standard fine-tuning) to 0.12, outperforming purely statistical generators such as CTGAN (-0.01), TabEBM (-0.04), and TableAugment (-0.09). Moreover, it narrows the median validation-test performance correlation gap from 0.67 to 0.30, enabling more reliable validation-based early stopping, a key step toward improving fine-tuning stability under data scarcity. These results demonstrate that incorporating causal structure into data augmentation provides an effective and principled route to fine-tuning tabular foundation models in low-data regimes.

2601.04110Jan 2026

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Quantifying the Impact of Modules and Their Interactions in the PSO-X Framework

The PSO-X framework incorporates dozens of modules that have been proposed for solving single-objective continuous optimization problems using particle swarm optimization. While modular frameworks enable users to automatically generate and configure algorithms tailored to specific optimization problems, the complexity of this process increases with the number of modules in the framework and the degrees of freedom defined for their interaction. Understanding how modules affect the performance of algorithms for different problems is critical to making the process of finding effective implementations more efficient and identifying promising areas for further investigation. Despite their practical applications and scientific relevance, there is a lack of empirical studies investigating which modules matter most in modular optimization frameworks and how they interact. In this paper, we analyze the performance of 1424 particle swarm optimization algorithms instantiated from the PSO-X framework on the 25 functions in the CEC'05 benchmark suite with 10 and 30 dimensions. We use functional ANOVA to quantify the impact of modules and their combinations on performance in different problem classes. In practice, this allows us to identify which modules have greater influence on PSO-X performance depending on problem features such as multimodality, mathematical transformations and varying dimensionality. We then perform a cluster analysis to identify groups of problem classes that share similar module effect patterns. Our results show low variability in the importance of modules in all problem classes, suggesting that particle swarm optimization performance is driven by a few influential modules.

2601.04100Jan 2026

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Minimum distance classification for nonlinear dynamical systems

We address the problem of classifying trajectory data generated by some nonlinear dynamics, where each class corresponds to a distinct dynamical system. We propose Dynafit, a kernel-based method for learning a distance metric between training trajectories and the underlying dynamics. New observations are assigned to the class with the most similar dynamics according to the learned metric. The learning algorithm approximates the Koopman operator which globally linearizes the dynamics in a (potentially infinite) feature space associated with a kernel function. The distance metric is computed in feature space independently of its dimensionality by using the kernel trick common in machine learning. We also show that the kernel function can be tailored to incorporate partial knowledge of the dynamics when available. Dynafit is applicable to various classification tasks involving nonlinear dynamical systems and sensors. We illustrate its effectiveness on three examples: chaos detection with the logistic map, recognition of handwritten dynamics and of visual dynamic textures.

2601.04058Jan 2026

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Using Legacy Polysomnography Data to Train a Radar System to Quantify Sleep in Older Adults and People living with Dementia

Objective: Ultra-wideband radar technology offers a promising solution for unobtrusive and cost-effective in-home sleep monitoring. However, the limited availability of radar sleep data poses challenges in building robust models that generalize across diverse cohorts and environments. This study proposes a novel deep transfer learning framework to enhance sleep stage classification using radar data. Methods: An end-to-end neural network was developed to classify sleep stages based on nocturnal respiratory and motion signals. The network was trained using a combination of large-scale polysomnography (PSG) datasets and radar data. A domain adaptation approach employing adversarial learning was utilized to bridge the knowledge gap between PSG and radar signals. Validation was performed on a radar dataset of 47 older adults (mean age: 71.2), including 18 participants with prodromal or mild Alzheimer disease. Results: The proposed network structure achieves an accuracy of 79.5% with a Kappa value of 0.65 when classifying wakefulness, rapid eye movement, light sleep and deep sleep. Experimental results confirm that our deep transfer learning approach significantly enhances automatic sleep staging performance in the target domain. Conclusion: This method effectively addresses challenges associated with data variability and limited sample size, substantially improving the reliability of automatic sleep staging models, especially in contexts where radar data is limited. Significance: The findings underscore the viability of UWB radar as a nonintrusive, forward-looking sleep assessment tool that could significantly benefit care for older people and people with neurodegenerative disorders.

2601.04057Jan 2026

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LinkD: AutoRegressive Diffusion Model for Mechanical Linkage Synthesis

Designing mechanical linkages to achieve target end-effector trajectories presents a fundamental challenge due to the intricate coupling between continuous node placements, discrete topological configurations, and nonlinear kinematic constraints. The highly nonlinear motion-to-configuration relationship means small perturbations in joint positions drastically alter trajectories, while the combinatorially expanding design space renders conventional optimization and heuristic methods computationally intractable. We introduce an autoregressive diffusion framework that exploits the dyadic nature of linkage assembly by representing mechanisms as sequentially constructed graphs, where nodes correspond to joints and edges to rigid links. Our approach combines a causal transformer with a Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM), both conditioned on target trajectories encoded via a transformer encoder. The causal transformer autoregressively predicts discrete topology node-by-node, while the DDPM refines each node's spatial coordinates and edge connectivity to previously generated nodes. This sequential generation enables adaptive trial-and-error synthesis where problematic nodes exhibiting kinematic locking or collisions can be selectively regenerated, allowing autonomous correction of degenerate configurations during design. Our graph-based, data-driven methodology surpasses traditional optimization approaches, enabling scalable inverse design that generalizes to mechanisms with arbitrary node counts. We demonstrate successful synthesis of linkage systems containing up to 20 nodes with extensibility to N-node architectures. This work advances autoregressive graph generation methodologies and computational kinematic synthesis, establishing new paradigms for scalable inverse design of complex mechanical systems.

2601.04054Jan 2026

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Symbolic Regression for Shared Expressions: Introducing Partial Parameter Sharing

Symbolic Regression aims to find symbolic expressions that describe datasets. Due to better interpretability, it is a machine learning paradigm particularly powerful for scientific discovery. In recent years, several works have expanded the concept to allow the description of similar phenomena using a single expression with varying sets of parameters, thereby introducing categorical variables. Some previous works allow only "non-shared" (category-value-specific) parameters, and others also incorporate "shared" (category-value-agnostic) parameters. We expand upon those efforts by considering multiple categorical variables, and introducing intermediate levels of parameter sharing. With two categorical variables, an intermediate level of parameter sharing emerges, i.e., parameters which are shared across either category but change across the other. The new approach potentially decreases the number of parameters, while revealing additional information about the problem. Using a synthetic, fitting-only example, we test the limits of this setup in terms of data requirement reduction and transfer learning. As a real-world symbolic regression example, we demonstrate the benefits of the proposed approach on an astrophysics dataset used in a previous study, which considered only one categorical variable. We achieve a similar fit quality but require significantly fewer individual parameters, and extract additional information about the problem.

2601.04051Jan 2026

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Modeling Behavioral Patterns in News Recommendations Using Fuzzy Neural Networks

News recommender systems are increasingly driven by black-box models, offering little transparency for editorial decision-making. In this work, we introduce a transparent recommender system that uses fuzzy neural networks to learn human-readable rules from behavioral data for predicting article clicks. By extracting the rules at configurable thresholds, we can control rule complexity and thus, the level of interpretability. We evaluate our approach on two publicly available news datasets (i.e., MIND and EB-NeRD) and show that we can accurately predict click behavior compared to several established baselines, while learning human-readable rules. Furthermore, we show that the learned rules reveal news consumption patterns, enabling editors to align content curation goals with target audience behavior.

2601.04019Jan 2026

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Stage-specific cancer survival prediction enriched by explainable machine learning

Despite the fact that cancer survivability rates vary greatly between stages, traditional survival prediction models have frequently been trained and assessed using examples from all combined phases of the disease. This method may result in an overestimation of performance and ignore the stage-specific variations. Using the SEER dataset, we created and verified explainable machine learning (ML) models to predict stage-specific cancer survivability in colorectal, stomach, and liver cancers. ML-based cancer survival analysis has been a long-standing topic in the literature; however, studies involving the explainability and transparency of ML survivability models are limited. Our use of explainability techniques, including SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME), enabled us to illustrate significant feature-cancer stage interactions that would have remained hidden in traditional black-box models. We identified how certain demographic and clinical variables influenced survival differently across cancer stages and types. These insights provide not only transparency but also clinical relevance, supporting personalized treatment planning. By focusing on stage-specific models, this study provides new insights into the most important factors at each stage of cancer, offering transparency and potential clinical relevance to support personalized treatment planning.

2601.03977Jan 2026

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FOREVER: Forgetting Curve-Inspired Memory Replay for Language Model Continual Learning

2601.03938Jan 2026

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A Gap Between Decision Trees and Neural Networks

We study when geometric simplicity of decision boundaries, used here as a notion of interpretability, can conflict with accurate approximation of axis-aligned decision trees by shallow neural networks. Decision trees induce rule-based, axis-aligned decision regions (finite unions of boxes), whereas shallow ReLU networks are typically trained as score models whose predictions are obtained by thresholding. We analyze the infinite-width, bounded-norm, single-hidden-layer ReLU class through the Radon total variation ($\mathrm{R}\mathrm{TV}$) seminorm, which controls the geometric complexity of level sets. We first show that the hard tree indicator $1_A$ has infinite $\mathrm{R}\mathrm{TV}$. Moreover, two natural split-wise continuous surrogates--piecewise-linear ramp smoothing and sigmoidal (logistic) smoothing--also have infinite $\mathrm{R}\mathrm{TV}$ in dimensions $d>1$, while Gaussian convolution yields finite $\mathrm{R}\mathrm{TV}$ but with an explicit exponential dependence on $d$. We then separate two goals that are often conflated: classification after thresholding (recovering the decision set) versus score learning (learning a calibrated score close to $1_A$). For classification, we construct a smooth barrier score $S_A$ with finite $\mathrm{R}\mathrm{TV}$ whose fixed threshold $τ=1$ exactly recovers the box. Under a mild tube-mass condition near $\partial A$, we prove an $L_1(P)$ calibration bound that decays polynomially in a sharpness parameter, along with an explicit $\mathrm{R}\mathrm{TV}$ upper bound in terms of face measures. Experiments on synthetic unions of rectangles illustrate the resulting accuracy--complexity tradeoff and how threshold selection shifts where training lands along it.

2601.03919Jan 2026

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Adaptive-Boundary-Clipping GRPO: Ensuring Bounded Ratios for Stable and Generalizable Training

Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) has emerged as a popular algorithm for reinforcement learning with large language models (LLMs). However, upon analyzing its clipping mechanism, we argue that it is suboptimal in certain scenarios. With appropriate modifications, GRPO can be significantly enhanced to improve both flexibility and generalization. To this end, we propose Adaptive-Boundary-Clipping GRPO (ABC-GRPO), an asymmetric and adaptive refinement of the original GRPO framework. We demonstrate that ABC-GRPO achieves superior performance over standard GRPO on mathematical reasoning tasks using the Qwen3 LLMs. Moreover, ABC-GRPO maintains substantially higher entropy throughout training, thereby preserving the model's exploration capacity and mitigating premature convergence. The implementation code is available online to ease reproducibility https://github.com/chi2liu/ABC-GRPO.

2601.03895Jan 2026

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Spectral Manifold Regularization for Stable and Modular Routing in Deep MoE Architectures

Mixture of Experts (MoE) architectures enable efficient scaling of neural networks but suffer from expert collapse, where routing converges to a few dominant experts. This reduces model capacity and causes catastrophic interference during adaptation. We propose the Spectrally-Regularized Mixture of Experts (SR-MoE), which imposes geometric constraints on the routing manifold to enforce structural modularity. Our method uses dual regularization: spectral norm constraints bound routing function Lipschitz continuity, while stable rank penalties preserve high-dimensional feature diversity in expert selection. We evaluate SR-MoE across architectural scales and dataset complexities using modular one-shot adaptation tasks. Results show that traditional linear gating fails with increasing depth (accuracy drops up to 4.72% due to expert entanglement), while SR-MoE maintains structural integrity (mean interference -0.32%). Our spectral constraints facilitate positive knowledge transfer, enabling localized expert updates without global performance decay. SR-MoE provides a general solution for building high-capacity, modular networks capable of stable lifelong learning.

2601.03889Jan 2026

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Feature-Aware One-Shot Federated Learning via Hierarchical Token Sequences

One-shot federated learning (OSFL) reduces the communication cost and privacy risks of iterative federated learning by constructing a global model with a single round of communication. However, most existing methods struggle to achieve robust performance on real-world domains such as medical imaging, or are inefficient when handling non-IID (Independent and Identically Distributed) data. To address these limitations, we introduce FALCON, a framework that enhances the effectiveness of OSFL over non-IID image data. The core idea of FALCON is to leverage the feature-aware hierarchical token sequences generation and knowledge distillation into OSFL. First, each client leverages a pretrained visual encoder with hierarchical scale encoding to compress images into hierarchical token sequences, which capture multi-scale semantics. Second, a multi-scale autoregressive transformer generator is used to model the distribution of these token sequences and generate the synthetic sequences. Third, clients upload the synthetic sequences along with the local classifier trained on the real token sequences to the server. Finally, the server incorporates knowledge distillation into global training to reduce reliance on precise distribution modeling. Experiments on medical and natural image datasets validate the effectiveness of FALCON in diverse non-IID scenarios, outperforming the best OSFL baselines by 9.58% in average accuracy.

2601.03882Jan 2026

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Logic Tensor Network-Enhanced Generative Adversarial Network

In this paper, we introduce Logic Tensor Network-Enhanced Generative Adversarial Network (LTN-GAN), a novel framework that enhances Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) by incorporating Logic Tensor Networks (LTNs) to enforce domain-specific logical constraints during the sample generation process. Although GANs have shown remarkable success in generating realistic data, they often lack mechanisms to incorporate prior knowledge or enforce logical consistency, limiting their applicability in domains requiring rule adherence. LTNs provide a principled way to integrate first-order logic with neural networks, enabling models to reason over and satisfy logical constraints. By combining the strengths of GANs for realistic data synthesis with LTNs for logical reasoning, we gain valuable insights into how logical constraints influence the generative process while improving both the diversity and logical consistency of the generated samples. We evaluate LTN-GAN across multiple datasets, including synthetic datasets (gaussian, grid, rings) and the MNIST dataset, demonstrating that our model significantly outperforms traditional GANs in terms of adherence to predefined logical constraints while maintaining the quality and diversity of generated samples. This work highlights the potential of neuro-symbolic approaches to enhance generative modeling in knowledge-intensive domains.

2601.03839Jan 2026

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