Trending in Machine Learning
Rethinking Language Model Scaling under Transferable Hypersphere Optimization
Scaling laws for large language models depend critically on the optimizer and parameterization. Existing hyperparameter transfer laws are mainly developed for first-order optimizers, and they do not structurally prevent training instability at scale. Recent hypersphere optimization methods constrain weight matrices to a fixed-norm hypersphere, offering a promising alternative for more stable scaling. We introduce HyperP (Hypersphere Parameterization), the first framework for transferring optimal learning rates across model width, depth, training tokens, and Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) granularity under the Frobenius-sphere constraint with the Muon optimizer. We prove that weight decay is a first-order no-op on the Frobenius sphere, show that Depth-$μ$P remains necessary, and find that the optimal learning rate follows the same data-scaling power law with the "magic exponent" 0.32 previously observed for AdamW. A single base learning rate tuned at the smallest scale transfers across all compute budgets under HyperP, yielding $1.58\times$ compute efficiency over a strong Muon baseline at $6\times10^{21}$ FLOPs. Moreover, HyperP delivers transferable stability: all monitored instability indicators, including $Z$-values, output RMS, and activation outliers, remain bounded and non-increasing under training FLOPs scaling. We also propose SqrtGate, an MoE gating mechanism derived from the hypersphere constraint that preserves output RMS across MoE granularities for improved granularity scaling, and show that hypersphere optimization enables substantially larger auxiliary load-balancing weights, yielding both strong performance and good expert balance. We release our training codebase at https://github.com/microsoft/ArchScale.
2603.28743
Mar 2026Machine Learning
Next-Token Prediction and Regret Minimization
We consider the question of how to employ next-token prediction algorithms in adversarial online decision-making environments. Specifically, if we train a next-token prediction model on a distribution $\mathcal{D}$ over sequences of opponent actions, when is it the case that the induced online decision-making algorithm (by approximately best responding to the model's predictions) has low adversarial regret (i.e., when is $\mathcal{D}$ a \emph{low-regret distribution})? For unbounded context windows (where the prediction made by the model can depend on all the actions taken by the adversary thus far), we show that although not every distribution $\mathcal{D}$ is a low-regret distribution, every distribution $\mathcal{D}$ is exponentially close (in TV distance) to one low-regret distribution, and hence sublinear regret can always be achieved at negligible cost to the accuracy of the original next-token prediction model. In contrast to this, for bounded context windows (where the prediction made by the model can depend only on the past $w$ actions taken by the adversary, as may be the case in modern transformer architectures), we show that there are some distributions $\mathcal{D}$ of opponent play that are $Θ(1)$-far from any low-regret distribution $\mathcal{D'}$ (even when $w = Ω(T)$ and such distributions exist). Finally, we complement these results by showing that the unbounded context robustification procedure can be implemented by layers of a standard transformer architecture, and provide empirical evidence that transformer models can be efficiently trained to represent these new low-regret distributions.
2603.28499
Mar 2026Machine Learning
Stepwise Credit Assignment for GRPO on Flow-Matching Models
Flow-GRPO successfully applies reinforcement learning to flow models, but uses uniform credit assignment across all steps. This ignores the temporal structure of diffusion generation: early steps determine composition and content (low-frequency structure), while late steps resolve details and textures (high-frequency details). Moreover, assigning uniform credit based solely on the final image can inadvertently reward suboptimal intermediate steps, especially when errors are corrected later in the diffusion trajectory. We propose Stepwise-Flow-GRPO, which assigns credit based on each step's reward improvement. By leveraging Tweedie's formula to obtain intermediate reward estimates and introducing gain-based advantages, our method achieves superior sample efficiency and faster convergence. We also introduce a DDIM-inspired SDE that improves reward quality while preserving stochasticity for policy gradients.
2603.28718
Mar 2026Machine Learning
Geometry-aware similarity metrics for neural representations on Riemannian and statistical manifolds
Similarity measures are widely used to interpret the representational geometries used by neural networks to solve tasks. Yet, because existing methods compare the extrinsic geometry of representations in state space, rather than their intrinsic geometry, they may fail to capture subtle yet crucial distinctions between fundamentally different neural network solutions. Here, we introduce metric similarity analysis (MSA), a novel method which leverages tools from Riemannian geometry to compare the intrinsic geometry of neural representations under the manifold hypothesis. We show that MSA can be used to i) disentangle features of neural computations in deep networks with different learning regimes, ii) compare nonlinear dynamics, and iii) investigate diffusion models. Hence, we introduce a mathematically grounded and broadly applicable framework to understand the mechanisms behind neural computations by comparing their intrinsic geometries.
2603.28764
Mar 2026Machine Learning
Enhancing LLM Training via Spectral Clipping
While spectral-based optimizers like Muon operate directly on the spectrum of updates, standard adaptive methods such as AdamW do not account for the global spectral structure of weights and gradients, leaving them vulnerable to two empirical issues in large language model (LLM) training: (i) the optimizer updates can have large spectral norms, potentially destabilizing training and degrading generalization; (ii) stochastic gradient noise can exhibit sparse spectral spikes, with a few dominant singular values much larger than the rest. We propose SPECTRA, a general framework addressing these by (i) post-spectral clipping of updates to enforce spectral-norm constraints; (ii) optional pre-spectral clipping of gradients to suppress spectral noise spikes. We prove that post-clipping constitutes a Composite Frank-Wolfe method with spectral-norm constraints and weight regularization, recovering Frobenius and $\ell_{\infty}$-norm regularization with SGD-based and sign-based methods. We further analyze how pre-clipping mitigates sparse spectral spikes. We propose efficient soft spectral clipping via Newton-Schulz iterations, avoiding expensive SVD. Experiments on LLM pretraining show SPECTRA uniformly improves validation loss for various optimizers, including AdamW, Signum, and AdEMAMix, with the best-performing variants achieving state-of-the-art results. Models trained with SPECTRA exhibit smaller weight norms, confirming the link between spectral clipping and regularization.
2603.14315
Mar 2026Machine Learning
\$OneMillion-Bench: How Far are Language Agents from Human Experts?
As language models (LMs) evolve from chat assistants to long-horizon agents capable of multi-step reasoning and tool use, existing benchmarks remain largely confined to structured or exam-style tasks that fall short of real-world professional demands. To this end, we introduce \$OneMillion-Bench \$OneMillion-Bench, a benchmark of 400 expert-curated tasks spanning Law, Finance, Industry, Healthcare, and Natural Science, built to evaluate agents across economically consequential scenarios. Unlike prior work, the benchmark requires retrieving authoritative sources, resolving conflicting evidence, applying domain-specific rules, and making constraint decisions, where correctness depends as much on the reasoning process as the final answer. We adopt a rubric-based evaluation protocol scoring factual accuracy, logical coherence, practical feasibility, and professional compliance, focused on expert-level problems to ensure meaningful differentiation across agents. Together, \$OneMillion-Bench provides a unified testbed for assessing agentic reliability, professional depth, and practical readiness in domain-intensive scenarios.
2603.07980
Mar 2026Machine Learning
How Far Can Unsupervised RLVR Scale LLM Training?
Unsupervised reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (URLVR) offers a pathway to scale LLM training beyond the supervision bottleneck by deriving rewards without ground truth labels. Recent works leverage model intrinsic signals, showing promising early gains, yet their potential and limitations remain unclear. In this work, we revisit URLVR and provide a comprehensive analysis spanning taxonomy, theory and extensive experiments. We first classify URLVR methods into intrinsic versus external based on reward sources, then establish a unified theoretical framework revealing that all intrinsic methods converge toward sharpening the model's initial distribution This sharpening mechanism succeeds when initial confidence aligns with correctness but fails catastrophically when misaligned. Through systematic experiments, we show intrinsic rewards consistently follow a rise-then-fall pattern across methods, with collapse timing determined by model prior rather than engineering choices. Despite these scaling limits, we find intrinsic rewards remain valuable in test-time training on small datasets, and propose Model Collapse Step to measure model prior, serving as a practical indicator for RL trainability. Finally, we explore external reward methods that ground verification in computational asymmetries, showing preliminary evidence they may escape the confidence-correctness ceiling. Our findings chart boundaries for intrinsic URLVR while motivating paths toward scalable alternatives.
2603.08660
Mar 2026Machine Learning
On the Width Scaling of Neural Optimizers Under Matrix Operator Norms I: Row/Column Normalization and Hyperparameter Transfer
A central question in modern deep learning is how to design optimizers whose behavior remains stable as the network width $w$ increases. We address this question by interpreting several widely used neural-network optimizers, including \textrm{AdamW} and \textrm{Muon}, as instances of steepest descent under matrix operator norms. This perspective links optimizer geometry with the Lipschitz structure of the network forward map, and enables width-independent control of both Lipschitz and smoothness constants. However, steepest-descent rules induced by standard $p \to q$ operator norms lack layerwise composability and therefore cannot provide width-independent bounds in deep architectures. We overcome this limitation by introducing a family of mean-normalized operator norms, denoted $\pmean \to \qmean$, that admit layerwise composability, yield width-independent smoothness bounds, and give rise to practical optimizers such as \emph{rescaled} \textrm{AdamW}, row normalization, and column normalization. The resulting learning rate width-aware scaling rules recover $μ$P scaling~\cite{yang2021tensor} as a special case and provide a principled mechanism for cross-width learning-rate transfer across a broad class of optimizers. We further show that \textrm{Muon} can suffer an $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{w})$ worst-case growth in the smoothness constant, whereas a new family of row-normalized optimizers we propose achieves width-independent smoothness guarantees. Based on the observations, we propose MOGA (Matrix Operator Geometry Aware), a width-aware optimizer based only on row/column-wise normalization that enables stable learning-rate transfer across model widths. Large-scale pre-training on GPT-2 and LLaMA shows that MOGA, especially with row normalization, is competitive with Muon while being notably faster in large-token and low-loss regimes.
2603.09952
Mar 2026Machine Learning
On-Policy Self-Distillation for Reasoning Compression
Reasoning models think out loud, but much of what they say is noise. We introduce OPSDC (On-Policy Self-Distillation for Reasoning Compression), a method that teaches models to reason more concisely by distilling their own concise behavior back into themselves. The entire approach reduces to one idea: condition the same model on a "be concise" instruction to obtain teacher logits, and minimize per-token reverse KL on the student's own rollouts. No ground-truth answers, no token budgets, no difficulty estimators. Just self-distillation. Yet this simplicity belies surprising sophistication: OPSDC automatically compresses easy problems aggressively while preserving the deliberation needed for hard ones. On Qwen3-8B and Qwen3-14B, we achieve 57-59% token reduction on MATH-500 while improving accuracy by 9-16 points absolute. On AIME 2024, the 14B model gains 10 points with 41% compression. The secret? Much of what reasoning models produce is not just redundant-it is actively harmful, compounding errors with every unnecessary token.
2603.05433
Mar 2026Machine Learning
Grow, Don't Overwrite: Fine-tuning Without Forgetting
Adapting pre-trained models to specialized tasks often leads to catastrophic forgetting, where new knowledge overwrites foundational capabilities. Existing methods either compromise performance on the new task or struggle to balance training stability with efficient reuse of pre-trained knowledge. We introduce a novel function-preserving expansion method that resolves this dilemma. Our technique expands model capacity by replicating pre-trained parameters within transformer submodules and applying a scaling correction that guarantees the expanded model is mathematically identical to the original at initialization, enabling stable training while exploiting existing knowledge. Empirically, our method eliminates the trade-off between plasticity and stability, matching the performance of full fine-tuning on downstream tasks without any degradation of the model's original capabilities. Furthermore, we demonstrate the modularity of our approach, showing that by selectively expanding a small subset of layers we can achieve the same performance as full fine-tuning at a fraction of the computational cost.
2603.08647
Mar 2026Machine Learning
AutoResearch-RL: Perpetual Self-Evaluating Reinforcement Learning Agents for Autonomous Neural Architecture Discovery
We present AutoResearch-RL, a framework in which a reinforcement learning agent conducts open-ended neural architecture and hyperparameter research without human supervision, running perpetually until a termination oracle signals convergence or resource exhaustion. At each step the agent proposes a code modification to a target training script, executes it under a fixed wall clock time budget, observes a scalar reward derived from validation bits-per-byte (val-bpb), and updates its policy via Proximal Policy Optimisation (PPO). The key design insight is the separation of three concerns: (i) a frozen environment (data pipeline, evaluation protocol, and constants) that guarantees fair cross-experiment comparison; (ii) a mutable target file (train.py) that represents the agent's editable state; and (iii) a meta-learner (the RL agent itself) that accumulates a growing trajectory of experiment outcomes and uses them to inform subsequent proposals. We formalise this as a Markov Decision Process, derive convergence guarantees under mild assumptions, and demonstrate empirically on a single GPU nanochat pretraining benchmark that AutoResearch-RL discovers configurations that match or exceed hand-tuned baselines after approximately 300 overnight iterations, with no human in the loop.
2603.07300
Mar 2026Machine Learning
Speculative Speculative Decoding
Autoregressive decoding is bottlenecked by its sequential nature. Speculative decoding has become a standard way to accelerate inference by using a fast draft model to predict upcoming tokens from a slower target model, and then verifying them in parallel with a single target model forward pass. However, speculative decoding itself relies on a sequential dependence between speculation and verification. We introduce speculative speculative decoding (SSD) to parallelize these operations. While a verification is ongoing, the draft model predicts likely verification outcomes and prepares speculations pre-emptively for them. If the actual verification outcome is then in the predicted set, a speculation can be returned immediately, eliminating drafting overhead entirely. We identify three key challenges presented by speculative speculative decoding, and suggest principled methods to solve each. The result is Saguaro, an optimized SSD algorithm. Our implementation is up to 2x faster than optimized speculative decoding baselines and up to 5x faster than autoregressive decoding with open source inference engines.
2603.03251
Mar 2026Machine Learning
Reject, Resample, Repeat: Understanding Parallel Reasoning in Language Model Inference
Inference-time methods that aggregate and prune multiple samples have emerged as a powerful paradigm for steering large language models, yet we lack any principled understanding of their accuracy-cost tradeoffs. In this paper, we introduce a route to rigorously study such approaches using the lens of *particle filtering* algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). Given a base language model and a *process reward model* estimating expected terminal rewards, we ask: *how accurately can we sample from a target distribution given some number of process reward evaluations?* Theoretically, we identify (1) simple criteria enabling non-asymptotic guarantees for SMC; (2) algorithmic improvements to SMC; and (3) a fundamental limit faced by all particle filtering methods. Empirically, we demonstrate that our theoretical criteria effectively govern the *sampling error* of SMC, though not necessarily its final *accuracy*, suggesting that theoretical perspectives beyond sampling may be necessary.
2603.07887
Mar 2026Machine Learning
Towards a Neural Debugger for Python
Training large language models (LLMs) on Python execution traces grounds them in code execution and enables the line-by-line execution prediction of whole Python programs, effectively turning them into neural interpreters (FAIR CodeGen Team et al., 2025). However, developers rarely execute programs step by step; instead, they use debuggers to stop execution at certain breakpoints and step through relevant portions only while inspecting or modifying program variables. Existing neural interpreter approaches lack such interactive control. To address this limitation, we introduce neural debuggers: language models that emulate traditional debuggers, supporting operations such as stepping into, over, or out of functions, as well as setting breakpoints at specific source lines. We show that neural debuggers -- obtained via fine-tuning large LLMs or pre-training smaller models from scratch -- can reliably model both forward execution (predicting future states and outputs) and inverse execution (inferring prior states or inputs) conditioned on debugger actions. Evaluated on CruxEval, our models achieve strong performance on both output and input prediction tasks, demonstrating robust conditional execution modeling. Our work takes first steps towards future agentic coding systems in which neural debuggers serve as a world model for simulated debugging environments, providing execution feedback or enabling agents to interact with real debugging tools. This capability lays the foundation for more powerful code generation, program understanding, and automated debugging.
2603.09951
Mar 2026Machine Learning
From Data Statistics to Feature Geometry: How Correlations Shape Superposition
A central idea in mechanistic interpretability is that neural networks represent more features than they have dimensions, arranging them in superposition to form an over-complete basis. This framing has been influential, motivating dictionary learning approaches such as sparse autoencoders. However, superposition has mostly been studied in idealized settings where features are sparse and uncorrelated. In these settings, superposition is typically understood as introducing interference that must be minimized geometrically and filtered out by non-linearities such as ReLUs, yielding local structures like regular polytopes. We show that this account is incomplete for realistic data by introducing Bag-of-Words Superposition (BOWS), a controlled setting to encode binary bag-of-words representations of internet text in superposition. Using BOWS, we find that when features are correlated, interference can be constructive rather than just noise to be filtered out. This is achieved by arranging features according to their co-activation patterns, making interference between active features constructive, while still using ReLUs to avoid false positives. We show that this kind of arrangement is more prevalent in models trained with weight decay and naturally gives rise to semantic clusters and cyclical structures which have been observed in real language models yet were not explained by the standard picture of superposition. Code for this paper can be found at https://github.com/LucasPrietoAl/correlations-feature-geometry.
2603.099721
Mar 2026Machine Learning
Impermanent: A Live Benchmark for Temporal Generalization in Time Series Forecasting
Recent advances in time-series forecasting increasingly rely on pre-trained foundation-style models. While these models often claim broad generalization, existing evaluation protocols provide limited evidence. Indeed, most current benchmarks use static train-test splits that can easily lead to contamination as foundation models can inadvertently train on test data or perform model selection using test scores, which can inflate performance. We introduce Impermanent, a live benchmark that evaluates forecasting models under open-world temporal change by scoring forecasts sequentially over time on continuously updated data streams, enabling the study of temporal robustness, distributional shift, and performance stability rather than one-off accuracy on a frozen test set. Impermanent is instantiated on GitHub open-source activity, providing a naturally live and highly non-stationary dataset shaped by releases, shifting contributor behavior, platform/tooling changes, and external events. We focus on the top 400 repositories by star count and construct time series from issues opened, pull requests opened, push events, and new stargazers, evaluated over a rolling window with daily updates, alongside standardized protocols and leaderboards for reproducible, ongoing comparison. By shifting evaluation from static accuracy to sustained performance, Impermanent takes a concrete step toward assessing when and whether foundation-level generalization in time-series forecasting can be meaningfully claimed. Code and a live dashboard are available at https://github.com/TimeCopilot/impermanent and https://impermanent.timecopilot.dev.
2603.08707
Mar 2026Machine Learning
Understanding LoRA as Knowledge Memory: An Empirical Analysis
Continuous knowledge updating for pre-trained large language models (LLMs) is increasingly necessary yet remains challenging. Although inference-time methods like In-Context Learning (ICL) and Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) are popular, they face constraints in context budgets, costs, and retrieval fragmentation. Departing from these context-dependent paradigms, this work investigates a parametric approach using Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) as a modular knowledge memory. Although few recent works examine this concept, the fundamental mechanics governing its capacity and composability remain largely unexplored. We bridge this gap through the first systematic empirical study mapping the design space of LoRA-based memory, ranging from characterizing storage capacity and optimizing internalization to scaling multi-module systems and evaluating long-context reasoning. Rather than proposing a single architecture, we provide practical guidance on the operational boundaries of LoRA memory. Overall, our findings position LoRA as the complementary axis of memory alongside RAG and ICL, offering distinct advantages.
2603.01097
Mar 2026Machine Learning
Task Aware Modulation Using Representation Learning for Upsaling of Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes
Accurately upscaling terrestrial carbon fluxes is central to estimating the global carbon budget, yet remains challenging due to the sparse and regionally biased distribution of ground measurements. Existing data-driven upscaling products often fail to generalize beyond observed domains, leading to systematic regional biases and high predictive uncertainty. We introduce Task-Aware Modulation with Representation Learning (TAM-RL), a framework that couples spatio-temporal representation learning with knowledge-guided encoder-decoder architecture and loss function derived from the carbon balance equation. Across 150+ flux tower sites representing diverse biomes and climate regimes, TAM-RL improves predictive performance relative to existing state-of-the-art datasets, reducing RMSE by 8-9.6% and increasing explained variance ($R^2$) from 19.4% to 43.8%, depending on the target flux. These results demonstrate that integrating physically grounded constraints with adaptive representation learning can substantially enhance the robustness and transferability of global carbon flux estimates.
2603.099741
Mar 2026Machine Learning
MSSR: Memory-Aware Adaptive Replay for Continual LLM Fine-Tuning
Continual fine-tuning of large language models (LLMs) is becoming increasingly crucial as these models are deployed in dynamic environments where tasks and data distributions evolve over time. While strong adaptability enables rapid acquisition of new knowledge, it also exposes LLMs to catastrophic forgetting, where previously learned skills degrade during sequential training. Existing replay-based strategies, such as fixed interleaved replay, accuracy-supervised, and loss-driven scheduling, remain limited: some depend on heuristic rules and provide only partial mitigation of forgetting, while others improve performance but incur substantial computational overhead. Motivated by retention dynamics under sequential fine-tuning, we propose Memory-Inspired Sampler and Scheduler Replay (MSSR), an experience replay framework that estimates sample-level memory strength and schedules rehearsal at adaptive intervals to mitigate catastrophic forgetting while maintaining fast adaptation. Extensive experiments across three backbone models and 11 sequential tasks show that MSSR consistently outperforms state-of-the-art replay baselines, with particularly strong gains on reasoning-intensive and multiple-choice benchmarks.
2603.09892
Mar 2026Machine Learning
Countdown-Code: A Testbed for Studying The Emergence and Generalization of Reward Hacking in RLVR
Reward hacking is a form of misalignment in which models overoptimize proxy rewards without genuinely solving the underlying task. Precisely measuring reward hacking occurrence remains challenging because true task rewards are often expensive or impossible to compute. We introduce Countdown-Code, a minimal environment where models can both solve a mathematical reasoning task and manipulate the test harness. This dual-access design creates a clean separation between proxy rewards (test pass/fail) and true rewards (mathematical correctness), enabling accurate measurement of reward-hacking rates. Using this environment, we study reward hacking in open-weight LLMs and find that such behaviors can be unintentionally learned during supervised fine-tuning (SFT) when even a small fraction of reward-hacking trajectories leak into training data. As little as 1\% contamination in distillation SFT data is sufficient for models to internalize reward hacking which resurfaces during subsequent reinforcement learning (RL). We further show that RL amplifies misalignment and drives its generalization beyond the original domain. We open-source our environment and code to facilitate future research on reward hacking in LLMs. Our results reveal a previously underexplored pathway through which reward hacking can emerge and persist in LLMs, underscoring the need for more rigorous validation of synthetic SFT data. Code is available at https://github.com/zohaib-khan5040/Countdown-Code.
2603.07084
Mar 2026Machine Learning
