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What quantum computer to buy?

Alex Krasnok

Abstract

The phrase ``buy a quantum computer'' hides several different procurement problems. An institution may be seeking cloud access for teaching, reserved capacity for research, a local instrument for hardware training, an optimization appliance, or a strategic installation that reshapes facilities, staffing, and budgets. Because these choices differ in purpose, operating burden, and useful lifetime, the decision should be framed as acquisition of \emph{quantum capability} rather than selection of a presumed hardware winner. This manuscript develops a practical procurement framework that distinguishes five capability layers, separates peer-reviewed results from commercial offerings, pricing anchors, and public roadmaps, and compares the main commercial platform families -- superconducting circuits, trapped ions, neutral atoms, quantum annealing, and photonics -- through the lens of institutional fit, access model, and refresh pressure. The main conclusion is that most institutions should begin with the smallest layer of capability that produces repeatable near-term value, builds internal expertise, and preserves strategic flexibility. Large on-premises systems are justified only when mission requirements, site readiness, staffing, governance, and upgrade paths are already clear.

What quantum computer to buy?

Abstract

The phrase ``buy a quantum computer'' hides several different procurement problems. An institution may be seeking cloud access for teaching, reserved capacity for research, a local instrument for hardware training, an optimization appliance, or a strategic installation that reshapes facilities, staffing, and budgets. Because these choices differ in purpose, operating burden, and useful lifetime, the decision should be framed as acquisition of \emph{quantum capability} rather than selection of a presumed hardware winner. This manuscript develops a practical procurement framework that distinguishes five capability layers, separates peer-reviewed results from commercial offerings, pricing anchors, and public roadmaps, and compares the main commercial platform families -- superconducting circuits, trapped ions, neutral atoms, quantum annealing, and photonics -- through the lens of institutional fit, access model, and refresh pressure. The main conclusion is that most institutions should begin with the smallest layer of capability that produces repeatable near-term value, builds internal expertise, and preserves strategic flexibility. Large on-premises systems are justified only when mission requirements, site readiness, staffing, governance, and upgrade paths are already clear.

Paper Structure

This paper contains 15 sections, 1 equation, 3 figures, 3 tables.

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction
  2. A procurement framework for quantum capability
  3. Platforms, companies, and the road ahead
  4. How to read public roadmaps
  5. Superconducting gate-model systems
  6. Trapped-ion systems
  7. Neutral-atom systems
  8. Quantum annealing systems
  9. Photonic systems
  10. What the roadmap means for buyers
  11. Where to start when funding is limited
  12. Cost, lock-in, and timing
  13. Questions that decide whether a purchase ages well
  14. Discussion
  15. Conclusion

Figures (3)

  • Figure 1: Procurement workflow. A disciplined buying process starts with mission definition, separates evidence classes, scores capability layers, rejects blocked options, tests the low-budget path, and only then decides whether to defer, rent, reserve, or own.
  • Figure 2: Platforms and public roadmaps. Solid blocks indicate customer-visible offerings now. Dashed blocks indicate public roadmap targets only. The figure should be read as a market map and a refresh-pressure signal, not as a cross-platform performance ranking.
  • Figure 3: Illustrative five-year total cost of ownership. The figure compares three operating models---cloud-first access, modest local ownership, and strategic local ownership---using explicit cost blocks for acquisition, facilities, staffing, service, software support, cloud overflow, and upgrade reserve. These values are scenario estimates for comparison, not vendor quotes.