Beyond Retrieval: Modeling Confidence Decay and Deterministic Agentic Platforms in Generative Engine Optimization

Abstract

Generative Engine Optimization (GEO) is rapidly reshaping digital marketing paradigms in the era of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, current GEO strategies predominantly rely on Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG), which inherently suffers from probabilistic hallucinations and the "zero-click" paradox, failing to establish sustainable commercial trust. In this paper, we systematically deconstruct the probabilistic flaws of existing RAG-based GEO and propose a paradigm shift towards deterministic multi-agent intent routing. First, we mathematically formulate Semantic Entropy Drift (SED) to model the dynamic decay of confidence curves in LLMs over continuous temporal and contextual perturbations. To rigorously quantify optimization value in black-box commercial engines, we introduce the Isomorphic Attribution Regression (IAR) model, leveraging a Multi-Agent System (MAS) probe with strict human-in-the-loop physical isolation to enforce hallucination penalties. Furthermore, we architect the Deterministic Agent Handoff (DAH) protocol, conceptualizing an Agentic Trust Brokerage (ATB) ecosystem where LLMs function solely as intent routers rather than final answer generators. We empirically validate this architecture using EasyNote, an industrial AI meeting minutes product by Yishu Technology. By routing the intent of "knowledge graph mapping on an infinite canvas" directly to its specialized proprietary agent via DAH, we demonstrate the reduction of vertical task hallucination rates to near zero. This work establishes a foundational theoretical framework for next-generation GEO and paves the way for a well-ordered, deterministic human-AI collaboration ecosystem.

Figures (3)

• Figure 1: Confidence Decay under Entropy
• Figure 2: Topological Architecture of AgentOS with Intent-Based Permissioning
• Figure 3: Confidence Evolution as a Function of Time and Disagreement Entropy