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The Hollyfeld Gambit in Astrophysics

Benne Holwerda

Abstract

We estimate the Hollyfeld Gambit for the Powerball lottery and its return on investment compared to present and extrapolated federal funding for astrophysical grants. Using a Monte Carlo estimation of rate of return for the Powerball, we conclude a Hollyfeld Gambit is a better bet than a federal grant by the end of the decade if current trends hold.

The Hollyfeld Gambit in Astrophysics

Abstract

We estimate the Hollyfeld Gambit for the Powerball lottery and its return on investment compared to present and extrapolated federal funding for astrophysical grants. Using a Monte Carlo estimation of rate of return for the Powerball, we conclude a Hollyfeld Gambit is a better bet than a federal grant by the end of the decade if current trends hold.

Paper Structure

This paper contains 6 sections, 1 equation, 3 figures.

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction
  2. Lazlo Hollyfield Gambit
  3. Monte Carlo Modeling
  4. Federal funding
  5. Discussion
  6. Conclusions

Figures (3)

  • Figure 1: The median return of the Powerball as a function of number of tickets bought. The number of tickets that can be bought with 38 days of labor for a postdoc and a federal minimum wage are marked with dashed lines.
  • Figure 2: The percentage of grants awarded by the NSF mathematics and physical science for each year and the third degree polynomial trend.
  • Figure 3: The ROI for NSF data and projection and the Powerball returns from Figure \ref{['f:powerball']}.