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Estimating Earth's Temperature Response with Transformed and Augmented OLS

Justin Sun

Abstract

The long-term relationship between radiative forcing and surface temperature is imperative for predicting the impacts of climate change. This study employs multicointegration to characterize this relationship and uses Transformed and Augmented Ordinary Least Squares (TAOLS) to estimate the model. The main goal is to estimate the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS), defined as the global mean surface air temperature increase following a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Our results show that the ECS lies between $2.12^{\circ}$C and $2.49^{\circ}$C, which is lower than the existing maximum likelihood estimate of $2.8^{\circ}$C. TAOLS offers a more robust and accessible tool for climate research, providing novel insights for ongoing debates about Earth's warming trajectory.

Estimating Earth's Temperature Response with Transformed and Augmented OLS

Abstract

The long-term relationship between radiative forcing and surface temperature is imperative for predicting the impacts of climate change. This study employs multicointegration to characterize this relationship and uses Transformed and Augmented Ordinary Least Squares (TAOLS) to estimate the model. The main goal is to estimate the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS), defined as the global mean surface air temperature increase following a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Our results show that the ECS lies between C and C, which is lower than the existing maximum likelihood estimate of C. TAOLS offers a more robust and accessible tool for climate research, providing novel insights for ongoing debates about Earth's warming trajectory.
Paper Structure (11 sections, 14 equations, 3 figures)

This paper contains 11 sections, 14 equations, 3 figures.

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction
  2. Theoretical Framework: Cointegration and Multicointegration
  3. Cointegration
  4. Multicointegration
  5. Methodology: TAOLS Approach
  6. Empirical Results
  7. Data Sources
  8. Multicointegration and ECS
  9. Multicointegration and Heat Feedback
  10. Conclusions and Future Research
  11. Acknowledgments

Figures (3)

  • Figure 1: Plots of Radiative Forcing and Surface Temperature
  • Figure 2: TAOLS estimate of $\lambda$ and the implied ECS in the presence of multicointegration for different values of $K$ using partial-efficacy radiative forcing and surface temperature from Berkeley Earth.
  • Figure 3: TAOLS estimate of $\phi$ and the implied percentage of THC directed towards surface warming in the presence of multicointegration for different values of $K$.