At-Risk Transformation for U.S. Recession Prediction

Abstract

We propose a simple binarization of predictors, an "at-risk" transformation, as an alternative to the standard practice of using continuous, standardized variables in recession forecasting models. By converting predictors into indicators of unusually weak states based on a thresholding rule estimated from training data, we demonstrate their ability to capture the discrete nature of rare events such as U.S. recessions. Using a large panel of monthly U.S. macroeconomic and financial data, we show that binarized predictors consistently improve out-of-sample forecasting performance, often making linear models competitive with flexible machine learning methods, and that the gains are particularly pronounced around the onset of recessions.

Figures (2)

• Figure 1: Out-of-Sample Recession Probabilities of Disaggregated $Z_t$
• Figure 2: Forecast Disagreement Between Proposed and Benchmark Models ($h=3$)