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Constraining the Lifespan of Intelligent Technological Civilization in the Galaxy

Sohrab Rahvar, Shahin Rouhani

Abstract

In this work, we explore constraints on the emergence and longevity of technologically intelligent civilizations in our Galaxy, considering the Fermi paradox. We argue that under optimistic assumptions about the probability of life and intelligence emerging on Earth-like planets, the absence of contact with extraterrestrial civilizations imposes limits on their lifespan. Our analysis suggests that if intelligent life is common, technological civilizations must be relatively short-lived, with lifetimes constrained to $\lesssim 5\times10^3$ years under our most optimistic scenario. Considering electromagnetic communication, we note that our current light cone encompasses the entire Galactic history over the past $\sim 10^5$ years, making the lack of detected signals particularly puzzling for long-lived civilizations. We emphasize that these results should be interpreted as upper bounds derived from the Fermi paradox, not as predictions of actual lifespans.

Constraining the Lifespan of Intelligent Technological Civilization in the Galaxy

Abstract

In this work, we explore constraints on the emergence and longevity of technologically intelligent civilizations in our Galaxy, considering the Fermi paradox. We argue that under optimistic assumptions about the probability of life and intelligence emerging on Earth-like planets, the absence of contact with extraterrestrial civilizations imposes limits on their lifespan. Our analysis suggests that if intelligent life is common, technological civilizations must be relatively short-lived, with lifetimes constrained to years under our most optimistic scenario. Considering electromagnetic communication, we note that our current light cone encompasses the entire Galactic history over the past years, making the lack of detected signals particularly puzzling for long-lived civilizations. We emphasize that these results should be interpreted as upper bounds derived from the Fermi paradox, not as predictions of actual lifespans.
Paper Structure (1 section, 3 equations, 1 figure)

This paper contains 1 section, 3 equations, 1 figure.

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction

Figures (1)

  • Figure 1: Constraint on the lifetime $L=10^n$ of intelligent technological civilizations derived from the Fermi paradox. The expected number of coexisting civilizations $N$ is shown as a function of the civilization lifetime for different assumptions about the probability $f$ that a habitable planet produces a technological civilization. The shaded region corresponds to values for which $N \gg 1$, which are observationally excluded by the absence of detected extraterrestrial civilizations. The dashed line indicates the boundary $N=1$ and is shown for reference.