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Extension of the fusion power plant costing standard

Simon Woodruff, Alicia Durham, Alex Higginbottom, Chris Raastad

Abstract

This paper documents the work of the Clean Air Task Force (CATF) International Working Group (IWG) on Fusion Cost Analysis in 2024-2025, and the methodological extensions implemented in the CATF-supported branch of the pyFECONs fusion power-plant costing framework. Using the standards-aligned chart-of-accounts and physics-to-economics workflow established by ARPA-E. The IWG development reorganizes and deepens the framework around three architecture-defining cost-driver tracks for Magnetic Fusion Energy (MFE), Inertial Fusion Energy (IFE), and Magneto-Inertial Fusion Energy (MIFE). In particular, the generic driver placeholder in Account 22.1.3 is treated as a controlled swap-point and replaced by a full cost-account development for the dominant driver in each class, enabling auditable traceability from requirements and geometry to rolled-up plant costs. On top of this driver-centric foundation, we introduce a probabilistic costing layer that compounds materials price uncertainty, TRL-based maturity uncertainty, and learning-curve uncertainty into cost distributions. We then describe safety-informed costing that enumerates fusion-relevant hazards and maps mitigating systems, structures, and provisions into standardized accounts, together with scenario-parameterized regulatory and financial adders. Finally, we document expanded macroeconomic and finance parameterization and a value-metrics module that complements LCOE with investment and planning measures (NPV, IRR MIRR, revenue requirements, WACC-based annualization, and residual and follow-on value), all computed from the same COA-mapped outputs. Collectively, these additions convert a deterministic, standards-aligned costing backbone into an extensible analysis environment suitable for transparent sensitivity studies, uncertainty propagation, and safety- and finance-coupled interpretation of fusion pilot-plant and NOAK scenarios.

Extension of the fusion power plant costing standard

Abstract

This paper documents the work of the Clean Air Task Force (CATF) International Working Group (IWG) on Fusion Cost Analysis in 2024-2025, and the methodological extensions implemented in the CATF-supported branch of the pyFECONs fusion power-plant costing framework. Using the standards-aligned chart-of-accounts and physics-to-economics workflow established by ARPA-E. The IWG development reorganizes and deepens the framework around three architecture-defining cost-driver tracks for Magnetic Fusion Energy (MFE), Inertial Fusion Energy (IFE), and Magneto-Inertial Fusion Energy (MIFE). In particular, the generic driver placeholder in Account 22.1.3 is treated as a controlled swap-point and replaced by a full cost-account development for the dominant driver in each class, enabling auditable traceability from requirements and geometry to rolled-up plant costs. On top of this driver-centric foundation, we introduce a probabilistic costing layer that compounds materials price uncertainty, TRL-based maturity uncertainty, and learning-curve uncertainty into cost distributions. We then describe safety-informed costing that enumerates fusion-relevant hazards and maps mitigating systems, structures, and provisions into standardized accounts, together with scenario-parameterized regulatory and financial adders. Finally, we document expanded macroeconomic and finance parameterization and a value-metrics module that complements LCOE with investment and planning measures (NPV, IRR MIRR, revenue requirements, WACC-based annualization, and residual and follow-on value), all computed from the same COA-mapped outputs. Collectively, these additions convert a deterministic, standards-aligned costing backbone into an extensible analysis environment suitable for transparent sensitivity studies, uncertainty propagation, and safety- and finance-coupled interpretation of fusion pilot-plant and NOAK scenarios.
Paper Structure (100 sections, 34 equations, 1 figure, 2 tables)

This paper contains 100 sections, 34 equations, 1 figure, 2 tables.

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction
  2. CATF IWG objectives and development approach
  3. Contributions and scope of this paper
  4. Paper organization
  5. State of the Art in Power Plant Cost Analysis
  6. Account--Based Costing Frameworks and Extensions
  7. ARPA--E and US Standardised Frameworks (FECONs / pyFECONs)
  8. Account--Based Bottom--Up Models in DEMO/ARIES--Type Studies
  9. FOAK Evidence and Structural Uncertainties
  10. Megaproject Risk, Optimism Bias, and Reference Class Forecasting
  11. System--Level Value, Target Costs, and Private--Sector Perspectives
  12. Systems--Code--Driven Design--and--Cost Workflows
  13. Cross--Cutting Themes and Open Problems
  14. Methodology
  15. Motivation: credible, comparable fusion TEA
  16. ...and 85 more sections

Figures (1)

  • Figure 1: Workflow diagram: the ARPA-E costing standard (COA and workflow) is retained, while CATF refines key driver and electrical accounts (22.1.3 and 22.1.7) and propagates safety-driven cost bases into other affected accounts. COA roll-up produces capital costs and LCOE, which then feed the economics and deployment modeling extensions.