Do we have a quantum computer? Expert perspectives on current status and future prospects

TL;DR

This qualitative study presents perspectives from leading quantum researchers on fundamental questions frequently posed by students, the public, and the media regarding QIST, to provide valuable guidance for educators, policymakers, and the broader community in establishing realistic expectations for developments in this exciting field.

Abstract

The rapid growth of quantum information science and technology (QIST) in the 21st century has created both excitement and uncertainty about the field's trajectory. This qualitative study presents perspectives from leading quantum researchers, who are educators, on fundamental questions frequently posed by students, the public, and the media regarding QIST. Through in-depth interviews, we explored several issues related to QIST including the following key areas: the current state of quantum computing in the noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) era and timelines for fault-tolerant quantum computers, the feasibility of personal quantum computers in our pockets, and promising qubit architectures for future development. Our findings reveal diverse yet convergent perspectives on these issues. While experts agree that the current machines with physical qubits that are being built currently should be called quantum computers, most estimated that it will take a decade to build a small fault-tolerant quantum computer, and several decades to achieve scalable systems capable of running Shor's factoring algorithm with quantum advantage. Regarding carrying a quantum computer in the pocket, experts viewed quantum computers as specialized tools that will remain in central locations such as data centers and can be accessed remotely for applications for which they are particularly effective compared to classical computers. Quantum researchers suggested that multiple platforms show promise, with no clear winner emerging. These insights provide valuable guidance for educators, policymakers, and the broader community in establishing realistic expectations for developments in this exciting field. Our findings can provide valuable information for educators to clarify student doubts about these important yet confusing issues related to quantum technologies.

Figures (4)

• Figure 1: This figure provides information on the educators, their departments, whether they are theorists or experimentalists, if they are based in the U.S. or not, and their most relevant research focus (some educators had other research focuses as well, not relevant to this work).
• Figure 2: This table provides information about the themes (based upon the research questions), the codes for educator responses, explanations of the codes, and which educators contributed to the discussion relating to each code.
• Figure 3: Examples of educator quotes on the research questions about current and future state of quantum computers, organized by recurring codes. In the figure, FTQC is an acronym used for fault-tolerant quantum computers.
• Figure 4: Qubit architectures discussed by educators. Some advantages (highlighted in green) and one disadvantage (highlighted in orange) of each qubit architecture discussed by educators are shown. Educators who selected a given architecture as their favorite are listed in the last column (some educators selected more than one qubit architecture).