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Evaluating the Impact of COVID-19 on Transportation Infrastructure Funding

Lu Gao, Pan Lu, Fengxiang Qiao, Joshua Qiang Li, Yunpeng Zhang, Yihao Ren

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused a reduction in business and routine activity and resulted in less motor fuel consumption. Thus, the gas tax revenue is reduced which is the major funding resource supporting the rehabilitation and maintenance of transportation infrastructure systems. The focus of this study is to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on transportation infrastructure funds in the United States through analyzing the motor fuel consumption data. Machine learning models were developed by integrating COVID-19 scenarios, fuel consumptions, and demographic data. The best model achieves an R2-score of more than 95% and captures the fluctuations of fuel consumption during the pandemic. Using the developed model, we project future motor gas consumption for each state. For some states, the gas tax revenues are going to be 10%-15% lower than the pre-pandemic level for at least one or two years.

Evaluating the Impact of COVID-19 on Transportation Infrastructure Funding

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused a reduction in business and routine activity and resulted in less motor fuel consumption. Thus, the gas tax revenue is reduced which is the major funding resource supporting the rehabilitation and maintenance of transportation infrastructure systems. The focus of this study is to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on transportation infrastructure funds in the United States through analyzing the motor fuel consumption data. Machine learning models were developed by integrating COVID-19 scenarios, fuel consumptions, and demographic data. The best model achieves an R2-score of more than 95% and captures the fluctuations of fuel consumption during the pandemic. Using the developed model, we project future motor gas consumption for each state. For some states, the gas tax revenues are going to be 10%-15% lower than the pre-pandemic level for at least one or two years.
Paper Structure (5 sections, 7 figures, 3 tables)

This paper contains 5 sections, 7 figures, 3 tables.

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction
  2. COVID-19 IMPACT
  3. GASOLINE AND FUEL CONSUMPTION DATA
  4. FUEL CONSUMPTION MODEL
  5. Conclusions

Figures (7)

  • Figure 1: Top Five States with the Largest Gasoline Consumption from January 2012 to August 2021
  • Figure 2: Motor Gasoline Consumption 24-Month Changes in Million Gallons (August 2019 vs. August 2021)
  • Figure 3: Motor Gasoline Consumption 24-month Changes in Percentage (August 2019 vs. August 2021)
  • Figure 4: Motor Special Fuel Consumption 24-month Changes in Million Gallons (August 2019 vs. August 2021)
  • Figure 5: Motor Special Fuel Consumption 24-month Change in Percentage (August 2019 vs. August 2021)
  • ...and 2 more figures