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Nota de Política Pública: Quanto de produtividade precisamos para reduzir a jornada de trabalho?

Victor Rangel

TL;DR

The paper analyzes the short-run macroeconomic implications of reducing formal working hours from 44 to 36 through a lean structural model with predetermined capital. It introduces $A_{ ext{req}}$, the productivity multiplier needed to keep baseline GDP, and finds that in the baseline, $A_{ ext{req}} o 1.084$ (about 8.4%); however, actual GDP can fall by roughly $7.8 ext{%}$ if $A_{ ext{req}}$ does not materialize, because the loss of aggregate effective labor and imperfect substitution to informality dominate despite modest gains from fatigue reduction. The transition is highly heterogeneous, hitting small firms harder and raising informalization, which elevates $A_{ ext{req}}$ unless policy mitigates formalization costs. The results imply that successful policy requires a package that lowers the private cost of remaining formal for small firms, reduces reorganization frictions, and accelerates productivity-enhancing organizational changes; otherwise, the 36-hour reform risks sizable short-run output and consumption losses. Throughout, $A_{ ext{req}}$ serves as a concise communication tool to convey the macroeconomic balancing act of shorter hours and productivity improvements.

Abstract

This paper quantifies, within a short-run structural model with predetermined capital, the immediate effects of imposing a cap on formal working hours that reduces the weekly workweek from 44 to 36 hours. The central object is the total factor productivity required to preserve GDP at its baseline level, A_req, defined as the multiplicative factor applied to A_t that equates output under the policy to output in the baseline. In the baseline simulation, the 44 -> 36 transition implies A_req ~ 8.5%

Nota de Política Pública: Quanto de produtividade precisamos para reduzir a jornada de trabalho?

TL;DR

The paper analyzes the short-run macroeconomic implications of reducing formal working hours from 44 to 36 through a lean structural model with predetermined capital. It introduces , the productivity multiplier needed to keep baseline GDP, and finds that in the baseline, (about 8.4%); however, actual GDP can fall by roughly if does not materialize, because the loss of aggregate effective labor and imperfect substitution to informality dominate despite modest gains from fatigue reduction. The transition is highly heterogeneous, hitting small firms harder and raising informalization, which elevates unless policy mitigates formalization costs. The results imply that successful policy requires a package that lowers the private cost of remaining formal for small firms, reduces reorganization frictions, and accelerates productivity-enhancing organizational changes; otherwise, the 36-hour reform risks sizable short-run output and consumption losses. Throughout, serves as a concise communication tool to convey the macroeconomic balancing act of shorter hours and productivity improvements.

Abstract

This paper quantifies, within a short-run structural model with predetermined capital, the immediate effects of imposing a cap on formal working hours that reduces the weekly workweek from 44 to 36 hours. The central object is the total factor productivity required to preserve GDP at its baseline level, A_req, defined as the multiplicative factor applied to A_t that equates output under the policy to output in the baseline. In the baseline simulation, the 44 -> 36 transition implies A_req ~ 8.5%
Paper Structure (14 sections, 11 equations, 7 figures)

This paper contains 14 sections, 11 equations, 7 figures.

Table of Contents

  1. O debate da escala 6$\times$1 e o cenário internacional
  2. Modelo: mecanismos essenciais de curto prazo
  3. Produção, trabalho efetivo e realocação formal--informal
  4. Custos reais: por que PIB e consumo podem cair mesmo com PIB/hora maior
  5. Escolha de formalidade (problema privado reduzido)
  6. Objeto comunicável: produtividade requerida $A_{\text{req}}$
  7. O trade-off central: jornada semanal vs. $A_{\text{req}}$
  8. Decomposição de canais: Fadiga é “pequena” frente aos demais mecanismos
  9. A transição é assimétrica e concentrada em pequenas firmas
  10. Um mapa de pacotes: como políticas pró-pequenas firmas diminuem o $A_{\text{req}}$ e informalidade
  11. Convergência empírica com o mecanismo:
  12. Por que um pacote de transição importa?
  13. Conclusões para Policy
  14. Limitações e escopo do exercício.

Figures (7)

  • Figure 1: Relação entre Produtividade e Horas Trabalhadas - Our World in Data.
  • Figure 2: $A_{\text{req}}$ versus jornada semanal: ganho de PTF requerido para manter o PIB do baseline sob diferentes tetos de horas formais.
  • Figure 3: Decomposição do impacto no PIB no horizonte final: fadiga versus demais canais.
  • Figure 4: $A_{\text{req}}$ por grupo (porte) e variação da informalidade
  • Figure 5: Mapa de transição do $A_{\text{req}}$: facilidade de migração e alívio no wedge nas pequenas firmas. O eixo vertical mede o alívio no wedge$1-\tau_S^{\text{cap}}/\tau_S$: quanto maior o valor, maior a redução do custo de formalização nas pequenas firmas no cenário com teto de horas (por exemplo, $0{,}5$ = corte de 50%). Cores mais claras indicam maior $A_{\text{req}}$; as linhas brancas são iso-$A_{\text{req}}$ (valores em %).
  • ...and 2 more figures