Superconcentration and chaos in Bernoulli percolation
Van Quyet Nguyen
TL;DR
The paper proves that sublinear fluctuations (superconcentration) of the chemical distance in supercritical Bernoulli percolation are equivalent to chaotic sensitivity of geodesics under small random resampling, extending Chatterjee's framework beyond Gaussian settings. The authors develop a dynamical, edge-centric variance formula using co-influences and introduce a dynamical effective radius to quantify how resampling an edge alters optimal paths; lattice-animal techniques are employed to control the total cost of resampling across edges. By carefully comparing the original and truncated models, they show that the dynamical variance is governed by the overlap of geodesics, yielding a sharp stable-chaotic phase transition characterized by a time scale $\hat{t}_n=\mathrm{Var}({\tilde{\mathrm{D}}}(0,nx))/n$. In particular, they establish that ${\rm Var}({\tilde{\mathrm{D}}}(0,nx))=o(n)$ if and only if there exists a sequence $t_n\to 0$ with ${\mathbb E}[|{\tilde{\pi}}(0,nx)\cap{\tilde{\pi}}^{t_n}(0,nx)|]=o(n)$, and provide sharp bounds linking correlation decay to geodesic overlap, thereby linking fluctuations to chaos in a non-Gaussian percolation context.
Abstract
We study the chemical distance of supercritical Bernoulli percolation on $\mathbb{Z}^d$. Recently, Dembin [Dem22] showed that the chemical distance exhibits sublinear variance, a phenomenon now referred to as superconcentration. In this article, we establish an equivalence between this phenomenon and chaotic behavior of geodesics under small perturbations of the configuration, thereby confirming Chatterjee's general principle relating anomalous fluctuations to chaos in the context of Bernoulli percolation. Our methods rely on a dynamical version of the effective radius, refining the notion first proposed in [CN25], in order to measure the co-influence of a given edge whose weight may be infinite. Together with techniques from the theory of lattice animals, this approach allows us to quantify the total co-influence of edges in terms of the overlap between original and perturbed geodesics.
