The dynamically hazardous asteroid 2025 TV$_{10}$. A new co-orbital asteroid of Venus

TL;DR

This work identifies 2025 TV$_{10}$ as a new Venus co-orbital asteroid and provides its first dynamical characterization, including an assessment of Earth-collision risk. Through extensive clone-based numerical integrations under planetary gravitation, the study shows the object can remain in co-orbital resonance for about 1200 years, with complex transitions among tadpole and sticking configurations and a Lyapunov time of roughly 150 years. The near-minimal Earth MOID and an exceptionally large number of Earth encounters indicate a dynamically hazardous member of the Venus co-orbital population, even though its faint magnitude limits direct observation. Observability from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory is predicted to be extremely limited, highlighting the need for continued follow-up to better constrain its orbit and long-term evolution.

Abstract

Twenty co-orbital asteroids of Venus are currently known, several of which may evolve into potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs) over timescales of thousands of years. We report the identification and first dynamical characterization of 2025 TV$_{10}$, a newly discovered Venus co-orbital asteroid, and assess its potential collisional hazard to Earth. We performed numerical simulations of a large number of asteroid clones, and we studied their close encounters with Venus and Earth. The asteroid may leave its co-orbital orbit on timescales of 1200 yr. The orbit of 2025 TV$_{10}$ is one of the closest of the absolute minimum of the "minimum orbital intersection distance" (MOID) with Earth for the Venus co-orbital asteroids known to date. Owing to its orbital parameters, 2025 TV$_{10}$ represents one of the most dynamically hazardous members of the Venus co-orbital population identified to date. Its faint magnitude and restricted observability windows make future observations challenging but essential for constraining its orbit.

Figures (4)

• Figure 1: Left panel: Time behavior of the resonant angle $\sigma = \lambda -{\lambda}_2$ for 2025 TV$_{10}$. Right panel: Projections in the $(\sigma, a)$ plane of the Hamiltonian levels and the output of numerical simulations (black dots) for the same asteroid.
• Figure 2: Time series of Venus encounters as a function of time (blue line). The rolling standard deviation is shown by the green line, and the rolling mean is depicted by the red line.
• Figure 3: Left panel: MOID contour map with Earth as a function of the initial values of $(e, i)$. The vertical line shows $e=0.38$, where the Earth's pericenter and the apocenter of the Venus co-orbital asteroid are equal. Co-orbitals of Venus with a MOID of 0.0005 au or less are shown by the black stars. The orbital position of 2025 TV$_{10}$ is shown by the blue star. Reproduced with permission from Fig. 7 of Carruba2025_AandA. Right panel: Histogram of MOID values with Earth for clones of 2025 TV$_{10}$. The vertical lines display the regions of large (blue line) and high (red line) collision risks.
• Figure 4: Conditions for 2025 TV$_{10}$ observability from the Rubin Observatory site between 2020 and 2036. The apparent magnitude fluctuations are shown in the upper panel. The Rubin Observatory single-visit detection limit of 23.5 is shown by the horizontal dashed line. The dashed line in the lower panel, which displays the height above the horizon, indicates the $20^\circ$ minimum elevation needed for useful observations.