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ARGORA: Orchestrated Argumentation for Causally Grounded LLM Reasoning and Decision Making

Youngjin Jin, Hanna Kim, Kwanwoo Kim, Chanhee Lee, Seungwon Shin

TL;DR

ARGORA introduces an orchestrated argumentation framework that converts multi-expert LLM deliberations into explicit Quantitative Bipolar Argumentation Frameworks (QBAFs) and treats their evaluation as a structural causal model (SCM). This enables edge-local counterfactual interventions to diagnose which arguments drive decisions and why, and adds an observation-aligned override mechanism to reconcile internal consensus with external judgments. Across diverse benchmarks, ARGORA delivers competitive accuracy and demonstrates a corrective tendency when experts disagree, while providing mechanistic explanations and robust diagnostics of decisive arguments. The approach advances explainability and reliability in multi-LLM reasoning, offering a principled foundation for analyzing and improving complex, high-stakes decision making.

Abstract

Existing multi-expert LLM systems gather diverse perspectives but combine them through simple aggregation, obscuring which arguments drove the final decision. We introduce ARGORA, a framework that organizes multi-expert discussions into explicit argumentation graphs showing which arguments support or attack each other. By casting these graphs as causal models, ARGORA can systematically remove individual arguments and recompute outcomes, identifying which reasoning chains were necessary and whether decisions would change under targeted modifications. We further introduce a correction mechanism that aligns internal reasoning with external judgments when they disagree. Across diverse benchmarks and an open-ended use case, ARGORA achieves competitive accuracy and demonstrates corrective behavior: when experts initially disagree, the framework resolves disputes toward correct answers more often than it introduces new errors, while providing causal diagnostics of decisive arguments.

ARGORA: Orchestrated Argumentation for Causally Grounded LLM Reasoning and Decision Making

TL;DR

ARGORA introduces an orchestrated argumentation framework that converts multi-expert LLM deliberations into explicit Quantitative Bipolar Argumentation Frameworks (QBAFs) and treats their evaluation as a structural causal model (SCM). This enables edge-local counterfactual interventions to diagnose which arguments drive decisions and why, and adds an observation-aligned override mechanism to reconcile internal consensus with external judgments. Across diverse benchmarks, ARGORA delivers competitive accuracy and demonstrates a corrective tendency when experts disagree, while providing mechanistic explanations and robust diagnostics of decisive arguments. The approach advances explainability and reliability in multi-LLM reasoning, offering a principled foundation for analyzing and improving complex, high-stakes decision making.

Abstract

Existing multi-expert LLM systems gather diverse perspectives but combine them through simple aggregation, obscuring which arguments drove the final decision. We introduce ARGORA, a framework that organizes multi-expert discussions into explicit argumentation graphs showing which arguments support or attack each other. By casting these graphs as causal models, ARGORA can systematically remove individual arguments and recompute outcomes, identifying which reasoning chains were necessary and whether decisions would change under targeted modifications. We further introduce a correction mechanism that aligns internal reasoning with external judgments when they disagree. Across diverse benchmarks and an open-ended use case, ARGORA achieves competitive accuracy and demonstrates corrective behavior: when experts initially disagree, the framework resolves disputes toward correct answers more often than it introduces new errors, while providing causal diagnostics of decisive arguments.
Paper Structure (146 sections, 2 theorems, 74 equations, 8 figures, 14 tables, 7 algorithms)

This paper contains 146 sections, 2 theorems, 74 equations, 8 figures, 14 tables, 7 algorithms.

Key Result

Proposition 4.1

Let $Q_m=\langle \mathcal{A}_m,R_m^{-},R_m^{+},w_m\rangle$ be a QBAF (for a main argument $m$) and fix a modular semantics $(\alpha,\iota)$ (Def. def:modular-semantics). Let $\sigma:\mathcal{A}_m\to [0,1]$ be the (strength) function satisfying the corresponding modular update equations on $Q_m$, and where $\mathrm{\mathbf{Pa}}(v_a)=\{\,v_c\in\mathbf{V}\mid c\in\mathrm{\mathbf{Ch}}(a)\,\}$. The pro

Figures (8)

  • Figure 1: ARGORA overview (Initialization). Pre-discussion parsing, key-element extraction, expert selection, and prompt generation (Sec. \ref{['subsec:pre-discussion-init']}, Prompt. \ref{['prompt:exp-prompt-gen']}).
  • Figure 2: ARGORA overview (Expert discussion). Hierarchical argument elicitation, QBAF construction/pruning, and semantics-based aggregation (Alg. \ref{['alg:first-level-gen']}--\ref{['alg:third-level-gen']}, Sec. \ref{['app:contextual-orthogonality-pruning']}, Sec. \ref{['subsec:prior-strength']}, Alg. \ref{['alg:full-debate-round']}).
  • Figure 3: ARGORA overview (Consensus and diagnostics). SCM casting, counterfactual interventions, and observation-aligned override logic (Sec. \ref{['subsec:causal-cf']}, Def. \ref{['def:edge-local-intervention']}, Def. \ref{['def:obs-aligned-override']}).
  • Figure 4: The four transition counts: $n_{+\to+}$ (truth retention), $n_{-\to+}$ (positive reversal), $n_{+\to-}$ (negative reversal), $n_{-\to-}$ (error persistence), as defined in Section \ref{['subsec:eval-methodology']} visualized as a confusion matrix for each of the evaluation benchmarks tested on the gpt-4o-mini model, with DF-QuAD used as our choice of quantitative semantics. We highlight the truth retention and positive reversal counts as green (good outcome), the error persistence as yellow, and the negative reversal as red (unwanted outcome).
  • Figure 5: Score distribution histogram plots for each of the evaluation benchmarks tested on the gpt-4o-mini model, with DF-QuAD used as our choice of quantitative semantics. The strongest winning argument difference, $\Delta_{\text{win}}$, is defined as the difference between $\sigma_{\text{correct}}$ and $\sigma_{\text{wrong}}$ (refer to Section \ref{['subsec:eval-methodology']}). That is, $\Delta_{\text{win}} = \sigma_{\text{correct}} - \sigma_{\text{wrong}}$. The blue line specifies the average $\Delta_{\text{win}}$ value for the entire benchmark.
  • ...and 3 more figures

Theorems & Definitions (31)

  • Definition 3.1
  • Definition 3.2: Modular semantics
  • Proposition 4.1
  • Definition 4.2
  • Definition 4.3: Root-level edge-local impact
  • Definition 4.4: Counterfactual explanation queries
  • Definition 4.5: Baseline and observational consensus
  • Definition 4.6: Observation-aligned counterfactual override
  • Definition 3.1: Argument
  • Definition 3.2: QBAF (recall)
  • ...and 21 more