Exploring the impacts of demand scenarios, weather variability and mitigation of emissions on Morocco's hydrogen market and renewable transition pathways

TL;DR

This study analyzes Morocco's hydrogen transition within a sector-coupled energy framework to compare industry reallocation versus export-oriented pathways through 2035 under weather variability and financing constraints. By extending the PyPSA-Earth model with PtX-specific components (green NH3, MeOH, green steel via DRI+EAF, and shipping fuels) and conducting a detailed potential-area analysis, it demonstrates that both pathways require substantial renewable and electrolyzer expansion, with hydrogen demand of about $32$–$38$ $TWh$ by 2035 and electrolyzer capacity around $3.8$–$4.3$ GW. A key finding is that lower financing costs (WACC) drive system costs and competitiveness more than stricter CO$_2$ constraints or weather variability, while domestic industrial diversification can yield larger welfare benefits than export-only strategies. The results emphasize a structural trade-off between export-led investment and domestic value creation, suggesting policies should balance Morocco's energy security with international market integration, focusing on reducing investment risk, coordinating hub and water-desalination infrastructure, and integrating welfare metrics into planning.

Abstract

The global demand for green hydrogen and its derivatives is growing rapidly as a cornerstone for decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors. Morocco, endowed with abundant solar and wind resources, ambitions to capture up to 4% of the global PtX market by 2030, positioning itself as a strategic partner for Europe's energy transition. Yet, uncertainty persists regarding European demand trajectories, infrastructure readiness, and investment risks. This study evaluates Morocco's hydrogen transition through 2035 using a sector-coupled capacity expansion model. We compare industry reallocation and hydrogen export-oriented scenarios, assessing their impacts under interannual weather variability and financial sensitivities. Both scenarios require a tripling of current renewable and electrolyzer capacities, with hydrogen demand reaching approximately up to 38 TWh by 2035. Lower financing costs (WACC) have a greater effect on system costs and competitiveness than stricter CO2 constraints or weather variability. The trade- off between domestic energy security and export competitiveness is pronounced, but both pathways are technically feasible and aligned with Morocco's strategic energy goals. These findings provide evidence-based guidance for policymakers to balance Morocco's domestic and export ambitions in the evolving hydrogen market.

Figures (7)

• Figure 1: Region-wise map of the potential areas and full load hours for onshore wind and solar-utility PV
• Figure 2: Final energy demand by carrier in 2035 compared to the base year 2021. Note that the final energy demand for "Green hydrogen" is in TWh$H _{2}$.
• Figure 3: Regional distribution of green hydrogen market balance in Morocco for the analyzed scenarios. The upper circles indicate production, while the lower circles represent demand. All energy market flows are expressed in TWh$_{2}$.
• Figure 4: Regional distribution of installed capacity by technology.The hydrogen consumption nodes and their intesity can be obtained from graphic, the region with the biggest demand is xx in both scenarios. The total grid capacity expansion required is about 8GW
• Figure 5: Total system costs in billion USD for the main scenarios.