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Foreign influencer operations: How TikTok shapes American perceptions of China

Trevor Incerti, Jonathan Elkobi, Daniel Mattingly

TL;DR

The paper investigates how authoritarian regimes may shape global public opinion via social media influencers on TikTok. It combines descriptive analysis of pro-China influencer activity with a large-scale randomized study using a clone of the TikTok app to compare the effects of pro-Chinese influencers, Chinese state media, and placebo content on American attitudes toward China. The findings show that pro-China influencers achieve higher engagement and meaningfully increase favorable views of China, its economy, and culture, while state media can provoke backlash and have weaker or even negative effects on favorability but may influence foreign policy attitudes. These results imply that outsourcing propaganda to influencers is a cost-effective, scalable tool with significant implications for global political opinion and democratic discourse, highlighting the need for ongoing monitoring and cross-platform analysis.

Abstract

How do authoritarian regimes strengthen global support for nondemocratic political systems? Roughly half of the users of the social media platform TikTok report getting news from social media influencers. Against this backdrop, authoritarian regimes have increasingly outsourced content creation to these influencers. To gain understanding of the extent of this phenomenon and the persuasive capabilities of these influencers, we collect comprehensive data on pro-China influencers on TikTok. We show that pro-China influencers have more engagement than state media. We then create a realistic clone of the TikTok app, and conduct a randomized experiment in which over 8,500 Americans are recruited to use this app and view a random sample of actual TikTok content. We show that pro-China foreign influencers are strikingly effective at increasing favorability toward China, while traditional Chinese state media causes backlash. The findings highlight the importance of influencers in shaping global public opinion.

Foreign influencer operations: How TikTok shapes American perceptions of China

TL;DR

The paper investigates how authoritarian regimes may shape global public opinion via social media influencers on TikTok. It combines descriptive analysis of pro-China influencer activity with a large-scale randomized study using a clone of the TikTok app to compare the effects of pro-Chinese influencers, Chinese state media, and placebo content on American attitudes toward China. The findings show that pro-China influencers achieve higher engagement and meaningfully increase favorable views of China, its economy, and culture, while state media can provoke backlash and have weaker or even negative effects on favorability but may influence foreign policy attitudes. These results imply that outsourcing propaganda to influencers is a cost-effective, scalable tool with significant implications for global political opinion and democratic discourse, highlighting the need for ongoing monitoring and cross-platform analysis.

Abstract

How do authoritarian regimes strengthen global support for nondemocratic political systems? Roughly half of the users of the social media platform TikTok report getting news from social media influencers. Against this backdrop, authoritarian regimes have increasingly outsourced content creation to these influencers. To gain understanding of the extent of this phenomenon and the persuasive capabilities of these influencers, we collect comprehensive data on pro-China influencers on TikTok. We show that pro-China influencers have more engagement than state media. We then create a realistic clone of the TikTok app, and conduct a randomized experiment in which over 8,500 Americans are recruited to use this app and view a random sample of actual TikTok content. We show that pro-China foreign influencers are strikingly effective at increasing favorability toward China, while traditional Chinese state media causes backlash. The findings highlight the importance of influencers in shaping global public opinion.
Paper Structure (49 sections, 20 figures, 3 tables)

This paper contains 49 sections, 20 figures, 3 tables.

Table of Contents

  1. Theories of Influence Operations on Social Media
  2. The pro-China foreign influencer landscape on TikTok
  3. Data collection
  4. Findings
  5. The effect of foreign influencers on attitudes about China
  6. Experimental design
  7. Estimation procedures
  8. Effect of foreign influencers on attitudes towards China
  9. What do individuals choose to watch?
  10. Which content is most persuasive?
  11. Discussion and conclusion
  12. Supporting Information
  13. Supplemental material
  14. Additional descriptive statistics
  15. Experimental design
  16. ...and 34 more sections

Figures (20)

  • Figure 1: Empirical cumulative distribution functions of video engagement metrics for foreign influencers and state media
  • Figure 2: Example treatment videos
  • Figure 3: Effects of influencer and state media videos on attitudes towards China
  • Figure A1: Empirical cumulative distribution functions of average engagement metrics per author for foreign influencers and state media accounts
  • Figure A2: Overview of experimental design.
  • ...and 15 more figures