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Hot Days, Unsafe Schools? The Impact of Heat on School Shootings

Seunghyun Lee, Goeun Lee

TL;DR

The study identifies a robust causal link between extreme heat and increased school shootings in U.S. K–12 settings from 1981 to 2022, using a county-day panel with a Poisson PQML estimator and rich fixed effects. It finds that days above 90°F significantly raise homicidal and threat-related shootings, with no analogous rise for accidental or suicidal incidents, and that effects concentrate in periods with looser supervision. Mechanisms are explored through heterogeneous effects by intent, severity, and timing, highlighting the role of institutional context in moderating heat-driven violence. Projected climate scenarios suggest that ongoing warming will elevate the incidence and social costs of such shootings, especially under high-emission pathways, underscoring the value of heat-mitigation and enhanced school safety measures as climate adaptation priorities.

Abstract

Using data on school shooting incidents in U.S. K--12 schools from 1981 to 2022, we estimate the causal effects of high temperatures on school shootings and assess the implications of climate change. We find that days with maximum temperatures exceeding 90$^\circ$F lead to a 80\% increase in school shootings relative to days below 70$^\circ$F. Consistent with theories linking heat exposure to aggression, high temperatures increase homicidal and threat-related shootings but have no effect on accidental or suicidal shootings. Heat-induced shootings occur disproportionately during periods of greater student mobility and reduced supervision, including before and after school hours and lunch periods. Higher temperatures increase shootings involving both student and non-student perpetrators. We project that climate change will increase homicidal and threat-related school shootings in the U.S. by 8\% under SSP2--4.5 (moderate emissions) and by 14\% under SSP5--8.5 (high emissions) by 2091--2100, corresponding to approximately 23 and 39 additional shootings per decade, respectively. The present discounted value of the resulting social costs is \$343 million and \$592 million (2025 dollars), respectively.

Hot Days, Unsafe Schools? The Impact of Heat on School Shootings

TL;DR

The study identifies a robust causal link between extreme heat and increased school shootings in U.S. K–12 settings from 1981 to 2022, using a county-day panel with a Poisson PQML estimator and rich fixed effects. It finds that days above 90°F significantly raise homicidal and threat-related shootings, with no analogous rise for accidental or suicidal incidents, and that effects concentrate in periods with looser supervision. Mechanisms are explored through heterogeneous effects by intent, severity, and timing, highlighting the role of institutional context in moderating heat-driven violence. Projected climate scenarios suggest that ongoing warming will elevate the incidence and social costs of such shootings, especially under high-emission pathways, underscoring the value of heat-mitigation and enhanced school safety measures as climate adaptation priorities.

Abstract

Using data on school shooting incidents in U.S. K--12 schools from 1981 to 2022, we estimate the causal effects of high temperatures on school shootings and assess the implications of climate change. We find that days with maximum temperatures exceeding 90F lead to a 80\% increase in school shootings relative to days below 70F. Consistent with theories linking heat exposure to aggression, high temperatures increase homicidal and threat-related shootings but have no effect on accidental or suicidal shootings. Heat-induced shootings occur disproportionately during periods of greater student mobility and reduced supervision, including before and after school hours and lunch periods. Higher temperatures increase shootings involving both student and non-student perpetrators. We project that climate change will increase homicidal and threat-related school shootings in the U.S. by 8\% under SSP2--4.5 (moderate emissions) and by 14\% under SSP5--8.5 (high emissions) by 2091--2100, corresponding to approximately 23 and 39 additional shootings per decade, respectively. The present discounted value of the resulting social costs is \592 million (2025 dollars), respectively.
Paper Structure (16 sections, 3 equations, 10 figures, 8 tables)

This paper contains 16 sections, 3 equations, 10 figures, 8 tables.

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction
  2. Background
  3. Data
  4. Research Design
  5. Results
  6. Main Results
  7. Robustness checks
  8. Heterogeneous Effects of Temperature on School Shootings
  9. Heterogeneity by Intent and Drivers
  10. Heterogeneity by Injury Severity and Incident Timing
  11. Climate Change Impact Assessments
  12. Climate Change Projection Data
  13. Projected Impacts on School Shootings
  14. Social Costs of Climate Change-Induced School Shootings
  15. Conclusion
  16. ...and 1 more sections

Figures (10)

  • Figure 1: Temporal and Geographical Variations of Shooting
  • Figure 2: Estimated Effect of Temperature on Shootings: 1980--2000 vs. 2001--2022
  • Figure 3: Projected Shifts in Daily Temperature and Precipitation Distributions Under Historical and Future Climate Scenarios
  • Figure 4: Change in the Frequency of Daily Maximum Temperature above $90^\circ$ F
  • Figure 5: Projected Impacts of Climate Change on School Shootings
  • ...and 5 more figures