Artificial Intelligence and the US Economy: An Accounting Perspective on Investment and Production
Luisa Carpinelli, Filippo Natoli, Marco Taboga
TL;DR
This paper analyzes how the current AI wave translates into US GDP using a mechanical macro‑accounting framework coupled with a stylized AI production model centered on data centers. It finds that while AI‑related capital expenditure has boosted aggregate demand, much of the spending is imported, dampening the net GDP impact. Data centers emerge as the pivotal channel through which AI investment feeds activity, with AI services potentially generating revenue flows comparable to the spend on capacity expansion. The study highlights policy relevance for monetary and industrial policy, emphasizes data‑center location and infrastructure, and calls for improved AI‑specific statistics to track diffusion, productivity gains, and macro risks.
Abstract
Artificial intelligence (AI) has moved to the center of policy, market, and academic debates, but its macroeconomic footprint is still only partly understood. This paper provides an overview on how the current AI wave is captured in US national accounts, combining a simple macro-accounting framework with a stylized description of the AI production process. We highlight the crucial role played by data centers, which constitute the backbone of the AI ecosystem and have attracted formidable investment in 2025, as they are indispensable for meeting the rapidly increasing worldwide demand for AI services. We document that the boom in IT and AI-related capital expenditure in the first three quarters of the year has given an outsized boost to aggregate demand, while its contribution to GDP growth is smaller once the high import content of AI hardware is netted out. Furthermore, simple calculations suggest that, at current utilization rates and pricing, the production of services originating in new AI data centers could contribute to GDP over the turn of the next quarters on a scale comparable to that of investment spending to date. Short reinvestment cycles and uncertainty about future AI demand, while not currently acting as a macroeconomic drag, can nevertheless fuel macroeconomic risks over the medium term.