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Impact of Tobacco Advertising Restrictions in Switzerland: A Quasi-Experimental Study on the Effect of Billboard Bans on Smoking

Andreas Stoller

TL;DR

The paper addresses whether tobacco billboard bans reduce smoking by exploiting staggered canton-level adoption in Switzerland, using a large retrospective panel from the Swiss Health Survey (1993–2017). It employs two causal methods—staggered difference-in-differences and the latent-factor IFEct model—to accommodate treatment heterogeneity and potential non-parallel trends, controlling for cantonal policies and demographic covariates. The main findings show a sustained reduction in smoking rates, with $~$0.9 percentage points declines immediately after bans (IFEct) and about $0.4$ percentage points on average over five years (DiD), translating to roughly a 3% relative decrease. The results are strongest for women and for ages 25–44 and 65+, and they offer policy-relevant support for billboard bans as a partial but effective instrument within broader tobacco prevention strategies.

Abstract

This study assesses the impact of tobacco billboard bans on smoking in Switzerland, exploiting their staggered adoption across regions, i.e., the cantons. Based on retrospective smoking histories from the Swiss Health Survey, a panel of individuals' annual smoking status is reconstructed, containing more than one million observations from 1993 to 2017. Estimation relies on staggered difference-in-differences as well as a complementary latent factor model, which relaxes the common trends assumption. The findings indicate that tobacco billboard bans lead to a reduction in smoking rates. Reductions of up to 0.9 percentage points correspond to an approximate 3% decline in the smoking rate. The effect is driven by women and individuals aged 25-44 and 65+. Overall, this evidence suggests that even partial tobacco advertising bans, such as billboard bans, can effectively reduce smoking rates and serve as a valuable policy tool within comprehensive tobacco prevention strategies.

Impact of Tobacco Advertising Restrictions in Switzerland: A Quasi-Experimental Study on the Effect of Billboard Bans on Smoking

TL;DR

The paper addresses whether tobacco billboard bans reduce smoking by exploiting staggered canton-level adoption in Switzerland, using a large retrospective panel from the Swiss Health Survey (1993–2017). It employs two causal methods—staggered difference-in-differences and the latent-factor IFEct model—to accommodate treatment heterogeneity and potential non-parallel trends, controlling for cantonal policies and demographic covariates. The main findings show a sustained reduction in smoking rates, with 0.9 percentage points declines immediately after bans (IFEct) and about percentage points on average over five years (DiD), translating to roughly a 3% relative decrease. The results are strongest for women and for ages 25–44 and 65+, and they offer policy-relevant support for billboard bans as a partial but effective instrument within broader tobacco prevention strategies.

Abstract

This study assesses the impact of tobacco billboard bans on smoking in Switzerland, exploiting their staggered adoption across regions, i.e., the cantons. Based on retrospective smoking histories from the Swiss Health Survey, a panel of individuals' annual smoking status is reconstructed, containing more than one million observations from 1993 to 2017. Estimation relies on staggered difference-in-differences as well as a complementary latent factor model, which relaxes the common trends assumption. The findings indicate that tobacco billboard bans lead to a reduction in smoking rates. Reductions of up to 0.9 percentage points correspond to an approximate 3% decline in the smoking rate. The effect is driven by women and individuals aged 25-44 and 65+. Overall, this evidence suggests that even partial tobacco advertising bans, such as billboard bans, can effectively reduce smoking rates and serve as a valuable policy tool within comprehensive tobacco prevention strategies.
Paper Structure (15 sections, 8 equations, 6 figures, 5 tables)

This paper contains 15 sections, 8 equations, 6 figures, 5 tables.

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction
  2. Literature
  3. Data
  4. Swiss Health Survey
  5. Tobacco Prevention Policies
  6. Method
  7. Identification Strategy
  8. Empirical Strategy
  9. Estimation and Inference
  10. Results
  11. Effect of Tobacco Billboard Bans
  12. Effect Heterogeneity by Gender and Age
  13. Robustness Checks
  14. Conclusion
  15. Annex

Figures (6)

  • Figure 1: Smoking history of never, current, and former smokers
  • Figure 2: Introduction of cantonal tobacco billboard bans
  • Figure 3: Year-specific effects of tobacco billboard bans on the smoking rate
  • Figure 4: Year-specific effects of tobacco billboard bans on the smoking rate
  • Figure 5: Year-specific effects of tobacco billboard bans on the smoking rate, by gender and age
  • ...and 1 more figures