Exploring the Relationship Between Local Election Results and Online Public Opinion in Taiwan: A Case Study of Taitung County
I-Hsien Ting, Yen-Chih Chiu, Yun-Hsiu Liu, Kazunori Minetaki, Chia-Sung Yen
TL;DR
This study investigates whether online public opinion aligns with local election results in Taiwan, using Taitung County as a case. It employs a quantitative Data Matching Method to link official vote shares from the Central Election Commission with online-volume and sentiment data from OpView across 2022–2023. The results show an inverse relationship: the candidate with the most online mentions did not win, suggesting that online volume is not a reliable predictor and that sentiment quality and local-context factors matter more. The work contributes to political communication and digital discourse research, offering methodological guidance for campaign strategy and election forecasting in local Taiwanese elections and highlighting directions for cross-regional, interdisciplinary studies.
Abstract
This study examines the relationship between online buzz and local election outcomes in Taiwan, with a focus on Taitung County. As social media becomes a major channel for public discourse, online buzz is increasingly seen as a factor influencing elections. However, its impact on local elections in Taiwan remains underexplored. This research addresses that gap through a comparative analysis of social media data and actual vote shares during the election period. A review of existing literature establishes the study's framework and highlights the need for empirical investigation in this area. The findings aim to reveal whether online discussions align with electoral results and to what extent digital sentiment reflects voter behavior. The study also discusses methodological and data limitations that may affect interpretation. Beyond its academic value, the research offers practical insights into how online buzz can inform campaign strategies and enhance election predictions. By analyzing the Taitung County case, this study contributes to a deeper understanding of the role of online discourse in Taiwan's local elections and offers a foundation for future research in the field.