Fairness, Travel, and Market Potential: An Optimization Framework for NBA Expansion
Ali Hassanzadeh, Morteza Davari, Dries Goossens
TL;DR
This paper develops an optimization framework to guide NBA expansion planning by evaluating how to realign conferences and divisions for 32 teams. It introduces two integer-programming models: one that minimizes total travel distance and a Nash bargaining model that distributes travel burdens more fairly while incorporating a market-size proxy for revenue via city populations, with a market-exposure constraint $\gamma = 0.8$. Using data from all current teams and six candidate cities, the authors show that the Nash approach yields more balanced divisions with only modest efficiency losses, and that expansion choices (e.g., Seattle/Las Vegas versus Mexico City/Vancouver) have substantial travel implications. The framework provides a flexible decision-support tool for league executives and demonstrates how travel, fairness, and media-market considerations can be balanced in large-scale, multi-market professional sports leagues.
Abstract
The National Basketball Association (NBA) is actively considering the addition of two expansion teams, raising the question of how to restructure its conferences and divisions to balance travel efficiency, fairness, and revenue opportunities. This study fills a gap at the intersection of sports operations and strategic league design by providing a quantitative framework for expansion planning. We develop two optimization models: one minimizing total travel distance and another using a Nash Bargaining framework to balance travel burdens while accounting for media market size. Using data from all 30 current franchises and six candidate cities (Seattle, Las Vegas, Montreal, Vancouver, Tampa, and Mexico City), we evaluate 15 pairwise expansion scenarios under alternative season lengths and divisional formats. Results show that while the distance-minimizing model produces geographically tight divisions, the Nash Bargaining model generates more balanced outcomes, particularly for geographically isolated franchises, with only modest efficiency losses. Our study offers a flexible decision support framework for league executives, policymakers, and sports economists. It provides evidence-based insights into how expansion decisions can balance operational efficiency, fairness in competition, and access to major media markets in a multi-billion-dollar sports league.