A Hybrid Physics-Based and Reinforcement Learning Framework for Electric Vehicle Charging Time Prediction

TL;DR

A physics-based analytical model with a reinforcement learning (RL) approach that captures the nonlinear constant-current/constant-voltage charging dynamics and explicitly models state-of-health (SoH)--dependent capacity and power fade provides a reliable baseline when historical data are limited.

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a hybrid prediction framework for accurate electric vehicle (EV) charging time estimation, a capability that is critical for trip planning, user satisfaction, and efficient operation of charging infrastructure. We combine a physics-based analytical model with a reinforcement learning (RL) approach. The analytical component captures the nonlinear constant-current/constant-voltage (CC--CV) charging dynamics and explicitly models state-of-health (SoH)--dependent capacity and power fade, providing a reliable baseline when historical data are limited. Building on this foundation, we introduce an RL component that progressively refines charging-time predictions as operational data accumulate, enabling improved long-term adaptation. Both models incorporate SoH degradation to maintain predictive accuracy over the battery lifetime. We evaluate the framework using $5{,}000$ simulated charging sessions calibrated to manufacturer specifications and publicly available EV charging datasets. Our results show that the analytical model achieves $R^{2}=98.5\%$ and $\mathrm{MAPE}=2.1\%$, while the RL model further improves performance to $R^{2}=99.2\%$ and $\mathrm{MAPE}=1.6\%$, corresponding to a $23\%$ accuracy gain and $35\%$ improved robustness to battery aging.