Analysing air transport connectivity in Africa through airline decisions: a choice modelling approach

TL;DR

This paper tackles how seat capacity on intra-African routes is allocated among airlines, using RP data from the OAG for 2016–2022 and a novel $eMDC$ discrete-continuous choice framework to model capacity distribution across origin-destination pairs. By integrating socio-economic, historical, and regulatory covariates, the study isolates factors shaping airline supply and tests differences between African and non-African carriers. Key findings show African carriers dominate intra-African capacity but exhibit less flexible route networks, with strong home-country bias and GDP-per-capita/product effects driving supply; colonial ties and shared language also elevate capacity, and the post-COVID period features more routes but smaller per-route seats. The results offer policy-relevant insights for improving African air connectivity, highlighting the need for deeper liberalisation and cross-border cooperation to realize a more integrated aviation market, while acknowledging data and scope limitations.”

Abstract

This research tries to understand how seat capacity on routes connecting 267 African cities is distributed across airlines by analysing supply decisions between 2016 and 2022. The paper compiles an Africa-specific database on seat capacity by origin-destination pair and year, using revealed preference data for one week in November each year extracted from the Official Aviation Guide (OAG). Supplemented with socio-economic and historical data such as GDP per capita, market size, predominant language, and colonial ties, the research applies the extended Multiple Discrete-Continuous (eMDC) choice model. The model results show that African carriers are, indeed, the ones offering the best connectivity for intra-African travel, but they also show less flexibility in their route networks. As expected, there is significant preferential treatment for national carriers regarding serving their home countries. The study highlights the structural and regulatory barriers that continue to constrain intra-African air connectivity, despite policies such as the Yamoussoukro Decision, designed to liberalise the sector. The dominance of airlines in serving only their home markets suggests a lack of cross-border cooperation and competition, limiting the potential for an integrated, efficient African aviation market. This not only restricts mobility across the continent but also hampers broader economic growth. The model estimates are statistically significant at a 95\% confidence level, supporting the use of these findings for informed policy and strategic decision-making. This paper represents the first application of discrete-continuous modelling using capacity-supply data within the African aviation context and offers policy-relevant insights into improving air connectivity.

Figures (2)

• Figure 1: Capacity-supply in terms of seats offered between O-D pairs within Africa during one week in November 2016.
• Figure 2: GDP per capita $\beta$ effect on air transport supply within Africa