Random covers of surfaces
Sophie Wright
TL;DR
The paper studies random covers of a closed hyperbolic surface by focusing on conjugacy classes of free subgroups Δ ≅ F_k of π1(Σ) and introducing a length via minimal carrier graphs. It proves a Huber-type asymptotic for the number of such subgroups with length ≤ L and constructs counting measures that converge, in the weak-* sense, to a surface‑independent Lebesgue-class measure on the moduli space of volume-one metric graphs 𝓜_k; a Patterson–Sullivan variant yields the same limit. The limit measure is explicitly described as a weighted sum over graph types, and this framework enables the computation of asymptotics for geometric invariants of random covers, with explicit results for k=2 such as the expected systole ~ (23/90)L and statistics for separating orthogeodesics and topological types. The work connects random subgroups to the geometry of metric graph moduli space, providing a probabilistic understanding of typical covers independent of the underlying surface.
Abstract
We study random covers of a closed hyperbolic surface $Σ$, subject to the condition that, for $k\geq 2$, the fundamental group is isomorphic to the free group $F_k$. We show that asymptotically they distribute according to a specific probability measure on the moduli space of metric graphs. As we will demonstrate with explicit calculations for $k=2$, this allows us to determine asymptotic values for the expectation of the systole and other geometric invariants of the covers.
