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From Prediction to Foresight: The Role of AI in Designing Responsible Futures

Maria Perez-Ortiz

TL;DR

The paper addresses how to design responsible futures in policymaking by introducing responsible computational foresight, a framework in which human-centric AI augments—rather than replaces—human judgment. It articulates foundational principles (sustainability, equity, ethics, data integrity, systems thinking) and presents an integrative toolkit spanning superforecasting, world simulation, simulation intelligence, scenario-building, participatory futures, futures literacy, and hybrid intelligence. Key contributions include a clear delineation of sub-fields, an integrative framework, and discussion of practical, ethical deployment in governance, including risks like self-fulfilling forecasts and bias propagation. The work aims to empower policymakers and communities to navigate uncertainty, design proactive, ethical, and sustainable policies, and advance futures literacy through AI-enabled foresight tools that maintain accountability and transparency.

Abstract

In an era marked by rapid technological advancements and complex global challenges, responsible foresight has emerged as an essential framework for policymakers aiming to navigate future uncertainties and shape the future. Responsible foresight entails the ethical anticipation of emerging opportunities and risks, with a focus on fostering proactive, sustainable, and accountable future design. This paper coins the term "responsible computational foresight", examining the role of human-centric artificial intelligence and computational modeling in advancing responsible foresight, establishing a set of foundational principles for this new field and presenting a suite of AI-driven foresight tools currently shaping it. AI, particularly in conjunction with simulations and scenario analysis, enhances policymakers' ability to address uncertainty, evaluate risks, and devise strategies geared toward sustainable, resilient futures. However, responsible foresight extends beyond mere technical forecasting; it demands a nuanced understanding of the interdependencies within social, environmental, economic and political systems, alongside a commitment to ethical, long-term decision-making that supports human intelligence. We argue that AI will play a role as a supportive tool in responsible, human-centered foresight, complementing rather than substituting policymaker judgment to enable the proactive shaping of resilient and ethically sound futures. This paper advocates for the thoughtful integration of AI into foresight practices to empower policymakers and communities as they confront the grand challenges of the 21st century.

From Prediction to Foresight: The Role of AI in Designing Responsible Futures

TL;DR

The paper addresses how to design responsible futures in policymaking by introducing responsible computational foresight, a framework in which human-centric AI augments—rather than replaces—human judgment. It articulates foundational principles (sustainability, equity, ethics, data integrity, systems thinking) and presents an integrative toolkit spanning superforecasting, world simulation, simulation intelligence, scenario-building, participatory futures, futures literacy, and hybrid intelligence. Key contributions include a clear delineation of sub-fields, an integrative framework, and discussion of practical, ethical deployment in governance, including risks like self-fulfilling forecasts and bias propagation. The work aims to empower policymakers and communities to navigate uncertainty, design proactive, ethical, and sustainable policies, and advance futures literacy through AI-enabled foresight tools that maintain accountability and transparency.

Abstract

In an era marked by rapid technological advancements and complex global challenges, responsible foresight has emerged as an essential framework for policymakers aiming to navigate future uncertainties and shape the future. Responsible foresight entails the ethical anticipation of emerging opportunities and risks, with a focus on fostering proactive, sustainable, and accountable future design. This paper coins the term "responsible computational foresight", examining the role of human-centric artificial intelligence and computational modeling in advancing responsible foresight, establishing a set of foundational principles for this new field and presenting a suite of AI-driven foresight tools currently shaping it. AI, particularly in conjunction with simulations and scenario analysis, enhances policymakers' ability to address uncertainty, evaluate risks, and devise strategies geared toward sustainable, resilient futures. However, responsible foresight extends beyond mere technical forecasting; it demands a nuanced understanding of the interdependencies within social, environmental, economic and political systems, alongside a commitment to ethical, long-term decision-making that supports human intelligence. We argue that AI will play a role as a supportive tool in responsible, human-centered foresight, complementing rather than substituting policymaker judgment to enable the proactive shaping of resilient and ethically sound futures. This paper advocates for the thoughtful integration of AI into foresight practices to empower policymakers and communities as they confront the grand challenges of the 21st century.

Paper Structure

This paper contains 15 sections, 2 figures.

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction
  2. Responsible foresight
  3. The role of responsible foresight in policymaking
  4. Key principles of responsible foresight in policymaking
  5. Computational modelling for responsible foresight
  6. The rise of algorithms in policymaking
  7. Sub-fields of responsible computational foresight
  8. Superforecasting and prediction markets
  9. World simulation, surrogate modelling or emulation
  10. Simulation intelligence
  11. Scenario building and narrative-based techniques
  12. Participatory futures and futures literacy
  13. Hybrid intelligence and human-computer interaction
  14. An integrative framework of responsible computational foresight
  15. Discussion

Figures (2)

  • Figure 1: Representation of the cyclical nature of the policymaking cycle.
  • Figure 2: Diagram illustrating the flow of responsible computational foresight. Futurists and foresighters employ responsible foresight tools to generate a diverse array of insights about the future—covering risks, potential consequences, likely outcomes, and preferable pathways, among others. Policymakers (who may also act as futurists or foresighters) then leverage these insights to inform decisions, shape agendas, and develop policy trajectories that steer society toward more desirable futures.