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A homogeneous TTV investigation of all TESS systems with a confirmed single transiting planet

Luca Naponiello

TL;DR

The paper conducts the largest homogeneous TTV study of TESS single-planet systems to date, analyzing ~16,000 transits across 423 targets with a uniform two-stage pipeline. By measuring transit times with a GP-augmented model and classifying TTVs via $\Delta$${\mathrm{BIC}}$ and $\chi^2_{\mathrm{mod}}$, it identifies 11 systems with significant TTVs (5 previously known) and 10 with marginal evidence, plus 6 new strong and 10 new weak candidates. Three-panel diagnostics and a comprehensive table of fitted parameters provide a transparent, follow-up-ready catalog. The results advance understanding of planetary system architectures and dynamical interactions, offering updated ephemerides and a valuable resource for dynamical modelling and multi-planet demographics in the TESS era.

Abstract

Transit Timing Variations (TTVs) are a powerful tool for detecting unseen companions in systems with known transiting exoplanets and for characterizing their masses and orbital properties. Large-scale and homogeneous TTV analyses are a valuable method to complement the demographics of planetary systems and understand the role of dynamical interactions. We present the results of a systematic TTV analysis of 423 systems covering 16000 transits, each with a single transiting planet first discovered by the TESS mission and afterwards confirmed or validated. The primary aim of this survey is to identify the most promising candidates for dynamically active systems that warrant further investigation. In the first stage of our analysis, precise measurements of the transit times are extracted for each system in an homogeneous way. In the second stage, we apply a decision framework to classify candidates by analyzing the resulting variations. Based on excess timing scatter and the difference in Bayesian Information Criterion of periodic models over linear ones, the TTVs are classified as significant, marginal, or non-detections. We find 11 systems with significant TTVs, 5 of which were announced in previous works, and 10 more systems with marginal evidence in our sample. We present 3-panel diagnostic plots for all the candidates, showing phase-folded light curves, the transit variations over time, and the variations folded on the recovered TTV period. A comprehensive summary table detailing the fitted parameters and TTV significance for the entire survey is also provided. This survey constitutes the largest homogeneous TTV analysis of TESS systems to date. We provide the community with updated ephemerides and a catalogue of high-quality TTV candidates, enabling targeted follow-up observations and dynamical modelling to uncover the nature of unseen companions and study system architectures.

A homogeneous TTV investigation of all TESS systems with a confirmed single transiting planet

TL;DR

The paper conducts the largest homogeneous TTV study of TESS single-planet systems to date, analyzing ~16,000 transits across 423 targets with a uniform two-stage pipeline. By measuring transit times with a GP-augmented model and classifying TTVs via and , it identifies 11 systems with significant TTVs (5 previously known) and 10 with marginal evidence, plus 6 new strong and 10 new weak candidates. Three-panel diagnostics and a comprehensive table of fitted parameters provide a transparent, follow-up-ready catalog. The results advance understanding of planetary system architectures and dynamical interactions, offering updated ephemerides and a valuable resource for dynamical modelling and multi-planet demographics in the TESS era.

Abstract

Transit Timing Variations (TTVs) are a powerful tool for detecting unseen companions in systems with known transiting exoplanets and for characterizing their masses and orbital properties. Large-scale and homogeneous TTV analyses are a valuable method to complement the demographics of planetary systems and understand the role of dynamical interactions. We present the results of a systematic TTV analysis of 423 systems covering 16000 transits, each with a single transiting planet first discovered by the TESS mission and afterwards confirmed or validated. The primary aim of this survey is to identify the most promising candidates for dynamically active systems that warrant further investigation. In the first stage of our analysis, precise measurements of the transit times are extracted for each system in an homogeneous way. In the second stage, we apply a decision framework to classify candidates by analyzing the resulting variations. Based on excess timing scatter and the difference in Bayesian Information Criterion of periodic models over linear ones, the TTVs are classified as significant, marginal, or non-detections. We find 11 systems with significant TTVs, 5 of which were announced in previous works, and 10 more systems with marginal evidence in our sample. We present 3-panel diagnostic plots for all the candidates, showing phase-folded light curves, the transit variations over time, and the variations folded on the recovered TTV period. A comprehensive summary table detailing the fitted parameters and TTV significance for the entire survey is also provided. This survey constitutes the largest homogeneous TTV analysis of TESS systems to date. We provide the community with updated ephemerides and a catalogue of high-quality TTV candidates, enabling targeted follow-up observations and dynamical modelling to uncover the nature of unseen companions and study system architectures.

Paper Structure

This paper contains 15 sections, 3 equations, 5 figures.

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction
  2. Data and analysis pipeline
  3. Target sample and light curves
  4. Transit timing measurements
  5. Candidate vetting and identification of TTVs
  6. Outlier rejection
  7. Periodicity search
  8. Model selection and candidate classification
  9. Results
  10. Strong TTVs confirmed in earlier studies
  11. Strong TTV candidates
  12. Additional noteworthy systems
  13. Correlation analysis
  14. Conclusions
  15. Additional table

Figures (5)

  • Figure 1: Top panel: Generalized Lomb–Scargle (GLS) periodogram of the TOI-1611 b O$-$C transit times, with the best periodicity highlighted by a red vertical line. Bottom panel: O$-$C measurements over time, with the best-fitting sinusoidal model shown in red.
  • Figure 2: Three-panel diagnostic plot for TTV candidates. Left: The TTV-corrected, phase-folded transit light curve with the best-fit model. Middle: O$-$C measurements over time from first transit ($t_0$, which is often, but not always, the same as $T_0$ from Table \ref{['tab:ttv_summary']}). Right: The O$-$C diagram folded to the best fit TTV period (with the model represented by a dashed red line). The colour of the legend indicates the classification, with green and light yellow representing strong and weak candidates, respectively. Shaded regions indicate phase repetitions for visual continuity.
  • Figure 3: Continuation of Fig. \ref{['fig:TTV_1']}.
  • Figure 4: Continuation of Fig. \ref{['fig:TTV_2']}.
  • Figure 5: Pearson correlation map of the parameters listed in Table \ref{['tab:ttv_summary']} for all our sample. The Pearson coefficient $r$ quantifies the strength and direction of linear relationships between pairs of variables ($r=1$ and $r=-1$ indicate perfect positive and negative correlation, while $r=0$ indicates no correlation).