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Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment

Qinghua Lei, Didier Sornette, William W. Chadwick, Scott L. Nooner, Maochuan Zhang, William S. D. Wilcock

TL;DR

The paper addresses whether imminent volcanic eruptions can be forecast in real time using physics-based precursors. It implements a LPPLS-based forecasting framework to diagnose approaching rupture and estimate a finite-time horizon $t_c$, complemented by three probabilistic methods to quantify uncertainty. A cryptographic timestamping protocol (SHA-256) with delayed public disclosure ensures unbiased, verifiable forecasting and open verification of results. The Axial Seamount dataset, comprising seafloor uplift and seismicity from the OOI-RCA, enables a rigorous test of predictive skill and contributes to a cumulative, testable science of eruption forecasting with transparent reporting of both successes and failures.

Abstract

We introduce the Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment (EFE), a real-time initiative designed to test the predictability of volcanic eruptions through a transparent, physics-based framework. The experiment is inspired by the Financial Bubble Experiment, adapting its principles of digital authentication, timestamped archiving, and delayed disclosure to the field of volcanology. The EFE implements a reproducible protocol in which each forecast is securely timestamped and cryptographically hashed (SHA-256) before being made public. The corresponding forecast documents, containing detailed diagnostics and probabilistic analyses, will be released after the next eruption or, if the forecasts are proven incorrect, at a later date. This procedure ensures full transparency while preventing premature interpretation or controversy surrounding public predictions. Forecasts will be issued monthly, or more frequently if required, using real-time monitoring data from the Ocean Observatories Initiative's Regional Cabled Array at Axial Seamount. By committing to publish all forecasts, successful or not, the EFE establishes a scientifically rigorous, falsifiable protocol to evaluate the limits of eruption forecasting. The ultimate goal is to transform eruption prediction into a cumulative and testable science founded on open verification, reproducibility, and physical understanding.

Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment

TL;DR

The paper addresses whether imminent volcanic eruptions can be forecast in real time using physics-based precursors. It implements a LPPLS-based forecasting framework to diagnose approaching rupture and estimate a finite-time horizon , complemented by three probabilistic methods to quantify uncertainty. A cryptographic timestamping protocol (SHA-256) with delayed public disclosure ensures unbiased, verifiable forecasting and open verification of results. The Axial Seamount dataset, comprising seafloor uplift and seismicity from the OOI-RCA, enables a rigorous test of predictive skill and contributes to a cumulative, testable science of eruption forecasting with transparent reporting of both successes and failures.

Abstract

We introduce the Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment (EFE), a real-time initiative designed to test the predictability of volcanic eruptions through a transparent, physics-based framework. The experiment is inspired by the Financial Bubble Experiment, adapting its principles of digital authentication, timestamped archiving, and delayed disclosure to the field of volcanology. The EFE implements a reproducible protocol in which each forecast is securely timestamped and cryptographically hashed (SHA-256) before being made public. The corresponding forecast documents, containing detailed diagnostics and probabilistic analyses, will be released after the next eruption or, if the forecasts are proven incorrect, at a later date. This procedure ensures full transparency while preventing premature interpretation or controversy surrounding public predictions. Forecasts will be issued monthly, or more frequently if required, using real-time monitoring data from the Ocean Observatories Initiative's Regional Cabled Array at Axial Seamount. By committing to publish all forecasts, successful or not, the EFE establishes a scientifically rigorous, falsifiable protocol to evaluate the limits of eruption forecasting. The ultimate goal is to transform eruption prediction into a cumulative and testable science founded on open verification, reproducibility, and physical understanding.

Paper Structure

This paper contains 11 sections, 3 equations, 3 figures, 1 table.

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction
  2. Experimental Design
  3. Monitoring Datasets
  4. Site description
  5. Seafloor uplift data
  6. Seismicity data
  7. Forecasting Methods
  8. Theory
  9. Procedures
  10. Forecast Results
  11. Timestamping and Verification Procedure

Figures (3)

  • Figure 1: Bathymetric map of the summit caldera of Axial Seamount showing the network of cabled bottom pressure recorders (BPRs; red circles) and seismometers (black squares) installed as part of the Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI) Regional Cabled Array (RCA).
  • Figure 2: Seafloor uplift measurements at Axial Seamount were obtained from the OOI–RCA bottom pressure recorder (BPR) data repository Nooner2016_ScienceChadwick2022_G3. (a) Time series recorded by the bottom pressure recorder (BPR) at the caldera centre (MJ03F in Fig. \ref{['fig:axial_seamount']}). (b) Differential BPR data derived by subtracting measurements at the reference site east of the caldera (MJ03E in Fig. \ref{['fig:axial_seamount']}) from those at the caldera centre (MJ03F). The major offset on the left side of the plots is the deflation that occurred during the 2015 eruption.
  • Figure 3: Seismic measurements at Axial Seamount from the OOI-RCA Earthquake Catalogue Wilcock2016_ScienceWilcock2017_IEDA. (a) Magnitude-time sequence of earthquakes at Axial Seamount; the red line indicates the completeness magnitude of the catalogue. (b) Time series of cumulative Benioff strain derived from equation (\ref{['eq:Omega_E']}) with $q = 1/2$.