Tipping to Climate Action: Qualitative Insights from a Social-Climate Model with a Committed Minority

TL;DR

This paper develops a qualitative social-climate framework that couples a two-opinion social ABM with memory to a stochastic energy-balance climate model, forming a feedback loop in which climate action opinion A and climate inaction B influence emissions via $E(t)=r(t)E_{best}(t)+(1-r(t))E_{worst}(t)$ and extreme-event frequency through $\lambda(T)=\lambda_0 1.1^{T- T_{PI}}$. A central contribution is the demonstration of a tipping point in the social dynamics at $\mathcal{C_M}^*$ when $M\ge 3$, yielding potential irreversible shifts toward climate action; this tipping feeds back into the climate system through emissions and the frequency of extreme events, modeled with an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process for temperature variability. Across 10,000 simulations, the authors show that earlier overturning of the climate inaction convention can substantially reduce 2100 temperatures, whereas late tipping yields modest improvements, and in some runs, the climate-inaction path persists. The study underscores the importance of social tipping dynamics and extreme-event salience for future climate trajectories, offering a tractable framework to incorporate dynamic human behavior into climate projections and policy-relevant scenario analysis.

Abstract

It is well-established that human activity is driving extreme weather patterns, and that these extreme events influence human behaviour. However, few models allow for human behaviours and the climate to dynamically interact. The models presented in this paper expand on previous work and serve as an initial framework to extend current models by using a dynamic social-climate feedback loop. First, we introduce a social model to determine the conditions under which a committed minority can overturn a pre-established social convention. Second, we modify an existing climate model to include climatic variability. Lastly, we formulate a social-climate feedback model to study the interplay between human behaviour and the climate. Our results demonstrate that the social-climate feedback loop may be important in accurately predicting future temperatures, in contrast to the standard approach where human behaviour is a priori. Additionally, we find that a committed minority plays a vital role in shifting public opinion towards climate action and that the time at which the social convention of climate inaction is overturned has a large impact on future temperatures.

Figures (9)

• Figure 1: An outline of our social-climate model feedback loop.
• Figure 2: A sample bifurcation diagram for our social model with $M=25$.
• Figure 3: Projections of global surface temperature change from the SDE model for the five IPCC climate scenarios. The solid lines show the average behaviour across 10,000 simulations and the shaded regions surrounding each solid line are the 95% confidence intervals.
• Figure 4: Annual counts of extreme events and decaying cumulative sum (left), speaking rate of $A$, and global surface temperature change from pre-industrial times (right) in the minimum final temperature scenario. The dashed line (left) represents the social model tipping point, $\mathcal{C_M}^*$.
• Figure 5: Annual counts of extreme events and decaying cumulative sum (left), speaking rate of $A$, and global surface temperature change from pre-industrial times (right) in the late social model tipping event scenario. The dashed line (left) represents the social model tipping point, $\mathcal{C_M}^*$.