Positivity of partial sums of a random multiplicative function and corresponding problems for the Legendre symbol
Petr Kucheriaviy
TL;DR
The paper investigates the positivity of partial sums for a random completely multiplicative ±1 function and related weighted sums, establishing a precise y-threshold above which the partial sums up to x stay nonnegative with probability 1−o(1). It develops a saddle-point and smooth-number framework, leveraging the Dickman function and Halász-type theorems, to bound the likelihood of negative partial sums and to bound sums of f(n)/n via high-moment methods and Rankin’s trick. A Kerr–Klurman-type improvement sharpens bounds on the probability that ∑_{n≤x} f(n)/n is negative, with further refinements possible under a smooth Halász conjecture. The paper also connects these random-model results to Legendre symbols χ_p(n) by relating their positivity probabilities to the random-model analogues, while addressing the impact of potential Siegel zeros on the correlation structure. Overall, it provides rigorous probabilistic control over positivity phenomena for random multiplicative functions and links between random models and character sums.
Abstract
Let $f(n)$ be a random completely multiplicative function such that $f(p) = \pm 1$ with probabilities $1/2$ independently at each prime. We study the conditional probability, given that $f(p) = 1$ for all $p < y$, that all partial sums of $f(n)$ up to $x$ are nonnegative. We prove that for $y \ge C \frac{(\log x)^2 \log_2 x}{\log_3 x}$ this probability equals $1 - o(1)$. We also study the probability $P_x'$ that $\sum_{n \le x} \frac{f(n)}{n}$ is negative. We prove that $P_x' \ll \exp \left( - \exp \left( \frac{\log x \log_4 x}{(1 + o(1)) \log_3 x} \right) \right)$, which improves a bound given by Kerr and Klurman. Under a conjecture closely related to Halász's theorem, we prove that $P_x' \ll \exp(-x^α)$ for some $α> 0$. Let $χ_p(n) = \left( \frac{n}{p} \right)$ be the Legendre symbol modulo $p$. For a prime $p$ chosen uniformly at random from $(x, 2x]$, we express the probability that all partial sums of $\frac{χ_p(n)}{n}$ are nonnegative in terms of the probability that partial sums of $\frac{f(n)}{n}$ are nonnegative.
