Influence of Network Topology and Vaccination Strategies on HPV Dynamics: A Simulation Study Using the SeCoNet Growth Model

TL;DR

HPV spread is driven by heterogeneous sexual contact networks, motivating a network-aware assessment of vaccination strategies. The authors implement SeCoNet to generate scale-free, heterosexual bipartite networks and simulate HPV transmission under an $SIRS$ model with four vaccination sessions, comparing age-based, ring, and seven centrality-based strategies. Across cohorts, degree centrality, betweenness centrality, and percolation centrality vaccination strategies generally perform best in reducing peak incidence, delaying peak prevalence, and lowering cumulative incidence, while ring vaccination uniquely minimizes female cumulative incidence; network topology modulates these effects, with higher average degree reducing effectiveness and greater heterogeneity, longer path lengths, and stronger clustering enhancing it. The study highlights the importance of incorporating contact-structure into vaccination design and points to gender-specific optimization, while noting limitations related to model assumptions, network size, and the need for empirical validation.

Abstract

This study examines how contact network topology influences the effectiveness of vaccination programs in the context of human papillomavirus (HPV) transmission. Using the SeCoNet sexual contact network growth model, we evaluate age based, ring based, and several centrality based vaccination strategies across the overall, male, and female cohorts, focusing on peak incidence, timing of peak prevalence, and cumulative incidence. The simulations show that degree, betweenness, and percolation centrality based strategies are generally the most effective, while ring vaccination achieves the greatest reduction in cumulative incidence among females. Network topology also plays a critical role: higher average degree reduces vaccination effectiveness, whereas higher power-law exponent, longer average shortest path length, and stronger clustering improve vaccination outcomes. The results highlight the importance of incorporating network structure into the design of HPV vaccination programs.

Figures (10)

• Figure 1: Compartments of HPV Transmission Dynamics - The model was initially implemented using an SIRS epidemic framework, later various vaccination strategies were performed to investigate the impact of network topology on containing HPV transmission.
• Figure 2: Maximum Daily General HPV Incidence across Network Structures and Vaccination Strategies - The degree centrality based and percolation centrality based strategies are effective in reducing new incidence among individuals. However, as the network becomes more connected, the differences in effectiveness between the vaccination strategies become less notable.
• Figure 3: Effect of Network Properties and Vaccination Strategies on Peak Day of General HPV Prevalence - The degree centrality based vaccination strategy is the most effective in delaying the peak of the general prevalence. However, as the network gets denser, the differences in effectiveness between the vaccination strategies become less pronounced.
• Figure 4: Effect of Network Structure and Vaccination Strategy on General HPV Cumulative Incidence - The degree centrality based, betweenness centrality based and percolation centrality based vaccination strategies work effectively in containing the cumulative incidence in the population.
• Figure 5: Maximum Daily Female HPV Incidence across Network Structures and Vaccination Strategies - The percolation centrality based vaccination strategy plays a crucial role in reducing the newly emerged incidence among females in overall.