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Temporal Graph Theoretic Analysis of Geopolitical Dynamics in the U.S. Entity List

Yunsen Lei, Kexin Bai, Quan Li, H. Howie Huang

TL;DR

This work tackles how U.S. export-control sanctions evolve through the Entity List by building an event-based, time-resolved dataset from 25 years of Federal Register notices. It models sanctions as a temporal bipartite graph linking intermediate and final target countries, and introduces the Role Skew Index ($RSI$), temporal motif analysis, and detection networks to study sanctions at node, edge, and subgraph scales. The approach reveals dynamic patterns such as escalation, hub-like behavior, and administration-specific campaign structures, offering a computational lens on geopolitical statecraft with practical implications for policy and compliance. The framework generalizes to other regulatory texts and can be integrated with trade and financial networks to forecast sanction dynamics and resilience of supply chains.

Abstract

Export controls have become one of America's most prominent tools of economic statecraft. They aim to block rival countries' access to sensitive technologies, safeguard U.S. supply chains, protect national security, and shape geopolitical competition. Among various instruments, the U.S. Entity List has emerged as the most salient, yet its dynamics remain underexplored. This paper introduces a novel temporal graph framework that transforms the Entity List documents from a static registry of foreign entities of concern into a dynamic representation of geopolitical strategy. We construct the first event-based dataset of U.S. government foreign entity designations and model them as a temporal bipartite graph. Building on this representation, we develop a multi-level analytical approach that reveals shifting roles, enforcement strategy, and broader sanction ecosystems. Applied to 25 years of data, the framework uncovers dynamic patterns of escalation, persistence, and coordination that static views cannot capture. More broadly, our study demonstrates how temporal graph analysis offers systematic computational insights into the geopolitical dynamics of export controls.

Temporal Graph Theoretic Analysis of Geopolitical Dynamics in the U.S. Entity List

TL;DR

This work tackles how U.S. export-control sanctions evolve through the Entity List by building an event-based, time-resolved dataset from 25 years of Federal Register notices. It models sanctions as a temporal bipartite graph linking intermediate and final target countries, and introduces the Role Skew Index (), temporal motif analysis, and detection networks to study sanctions at node, edge, and subgraph scales. The approach reveals dynamic patterns such as escalation, hub-like behavior, and administration-specific campaign structures, offering a computational lens on geopolitical statecraft with practical implications for policy and compliance. The framework generalizes to other regulatory texts and can be integrated with trade and financial networks to forecast sanction dynamics and resilience of supply chains.

Abstract

Export controls have become one of America's most prominent tools of economic statecraft. They aim to block rival countries' access to sensitive technologies, safeguard U.S. supply chains, protect national security, and shape geopolitical competition. Among various instruments, the U.S. Entity List has emerged as the most salient, yet its dynamics remain underexplored. This paper introduces a novel temporal graph framework that transforms the Entity List documents from a static registry of foreign entities of concern into a dynamic representation of geopolitical strategy. We construct the first event-based dataset of U.S. government foreign entity designations and model them as a temporal bipartite graph. Building on this representation, we develop a multi-level analytical approach that reveals shifting roles, enforcement strategy, and broader sanction ecosystems. Applied to 25 years of data, the framework uncovers dynamic patterns of escalation, persistence, and coordination that static views cannot capture. More broadly, our study demonstrates how temporal graph analysis offers systematic computational insights into the geopolitical dynamics of export controls.
Paper Structure (22 sections, 6 equations, 9 figures, 6 tables)

This paper contains 22 sections, 6 equations, 9 figures, 6 tables.

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction
  2. Background on Entity List
  3. Data Processing and Description
  4. Intermediate Target and Final Target
  5. Document Parsing
  6. Data Description
  7. Methodologies for Analyzing Entity List Restrictions
  8. Graph Formulation
  9. Node-Level: The Role Skew Index
  10. Edge-Level: Motif as Restriction Intensity
  11. Subgraph-Level: Detection Networks
  12. Findings
  13. A Global View of Strategic Roles
  14. Detecting Sanction Strategies with Motifs
  15. Mapping Sanction Networks
  16. ...and 7 more sections

Figures (9)

  • Figure 1: An overview of the data processing pipeline from (1) event extraction to (2) graph construction
  • Figure 2: Entity List Restriction Events and Distribution
  • Figure 3: Motif's Design Rationale
  • Figure 4: RSI by Countries in (a) 2012 vs (b) 2025. A country with more intermediate (or final) target events is represented by blue (positive) or red (negative) RSI values.
  • Figure 5: Three Patterns of Evolution in the RSI from 2000 to March 2025
  • ...and 4 more figures