Satellite Direct-to-Device from Low Earth Orbit: Techno-Economic Analysis of a Global Non-Terrestrial Network

TL;DR

The paper addresses the viability of global satellite D2D connectivity via LEO NTNs by introducing a comprehensive techno-economic analysis framework. It couples a global LEO constellation model with ITU-R propagation (rainfall and atmospheric attenuation), 3GPP capacity calculations, population data, and an end-to-end cost model, implemented in an enhanced open-source TEA tool. Three architectures—bent-pipe, regenerative, and 3D Open RAN—are evaluated across two design scenarios to assess performance, cost, and ROI. The findings indicate that per-user monthly costs can be on par with terrestrial services, ROI remains positive, and 3D Open RAN can yield substantial cost reductions, offering actionable guidance for investment and policy decisions.

Abstract

Low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites and satellite direct-to-device (D2D) technology are at the heart of the next-generation global connectivity which promises direct access to space-based broadband services for unmodified 3GPP-compliant handsets. With a rapidly evolving ecosystem, it is important to evaluate the feasibility, cost-effectiveness, and profitability of these services. By assessing the technological aspects as well as economic implications, stakeholders can make informed decisions about investment, development, and deployment strategies. This paper presents a comprehensive techno-economic analysis (TEA) framework for evaluating LEO-based satellite D2D systems. The framework integrates a global satellite constellation model, radio propagation aspects including atmospheric and rainfall attenuation models compliant with ITU-R recommendations, 3GPP-compliant capacity calculations, realistic global population data, and an all-encompassing cost model accounting for both capital and operational expenses associated with space and ground segments. Further, the framework evaluates three different architectural options for realizing a global non-terrestrial network (NTN) for satellite D2D services. With an emphasis on reproducibility, the framework has been implemented through significant enhancements to an open-source tool. The economic assessment reveals that global satellite D2D services can be provided at a monthly cost per subscriber which is comparable to terrestrial services while achieving a positive return on investment (ROI). Moreover, the results show the potential of Open RAN technology for realizing cost-effective satellite D2D services.

Figures (13)

• Figure 1: Overview of the TEA methodology and approach used in this work.
• Figure 2: NTN architecture options considered for techno-economic analysis.
• Figure 3: LEO satellites distribution with 10 orbits and 50 satellites per orbit.
• Figure 4: User density distribution across geographical regions.
• Figure 5: Functionality of the enhanced open-source TEA tool for satellite D2D systems.