Neural Posterior Estimation with Autoregressive Tiling for Detecting Objects in Astronomical Images
Jeffrey Regier
TL;DR
This work addresses the challenge of probabilistic object catalogs in large, high-density astronomical images by introducing a spatially autoregressive tiling scheme with a $K$-color checkerboard that mirrors the posterior dependencies. The variational family is amortized through a CNN-based inference network and fitted using neural posterior estimation (NPE) to minimize the forward KL, enabling efficient, likelihood-free inference for transdimensional catalogs. The authors prove that their variational structure can be configured to be a minimal I-map of the true posterior under suitable choices of $K$, tile size $T$, and radii $r_{\mathcal{X}}$, $r_{\mathcal{N}}$, and demonstrate state-of-the-art performance on SDSS data with improved posterior calibration. Two case studies—typical SDSS fields and a crowded M2-like starfield—show substantial gains in log-likelihood, precision, recall, and F1 over independent tiling methods and established approaches, while also discussing exposure bias and model misspecification as practical considerations for probabilistic catalogs and downstream science.
Abstract
Upcoming astronomical surveys will produce petabytes of high-resolution images of the night sky, providing information about billions of stars and galaxies. Detecting and characterizing the astronomical objects in these images is a fundamental task in astronomy -- and a challenging one, as most of these objects are faint and many visually overlap with other objects. We propose an amortized variational inference procedure to solve this instance of small-object detection. Our key innovation is a family of spatially autoregressive variational distributions that partition and order the latent space according to a $K$-color checkerboard pattern. By construction, the conditional independencies of this variational family mirror those of the posterior distribution. We fit the variational distribution, which is parameterized by a convolutional neural network, using neural posterior estimation (NPE) to minimize an expectation of the forward KL divergence. Using images from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, our method achieves state-of-the-art performance. We further demonstrate that the proposed autoregressive structure greatly improves posterior calibration.
