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A Computational Social Simulation of Ageing and Care Accessibility in Italian Inner Areas

Roberto garrone

TL;DR

The paper tackles aging-related care access in sparse Italian inner-area municipalities by building a GIS-integrated, agent-based model of elder-caregiver dyads. It fuses road-network data, IPF-derived synthetic populations, and behavioral heterogeneity to simulate how two ambulatory-service configurations affect system-level metrics and micro-spatial accessibility in Premeno. Through 40 batches with 50 replications per scenario and global sensitivity analyses, the study reveals aggregate neutrality but pronounced local redistribution of accessibility, with spatial impedance driving accessibility and caregiver capacity shaping burden. The work demonstrates hallmarks of complex adaptive systems—emergence, heterogeneity, and feedback—and offers a transferable framework for policy testing on care sustainability and equity in ageing landscapes.

Abstract

Ageing societies face increasing strain on formal and informal care systems, par- ticularly in low-density mountainous municipalities where sparse services and steep terrain constrain access. This study presents a spatially explicit agent-based model that integrates a road-network GIS, synthetic populations derived through Iterative Proportional Fitting, and behavioural heterogeneity to examine how alternative service configurations shape accessibility and caregiver burden. The model, applied to Premeno (Piedmont, Italy), compares a baseline distribution of ambulatory services with a relocation scenario at Villa Bernocchi. System-level indicators (Caregiver Effort, Overwhelm, Hours Not Cared, Walkability) and micro-spatial metrics (Walkability, Detour Ratio, Proximity) are analysed across 40 batches and 50 stochastic replications per scenario. Results reveal aggregate neutrality but pronounced local redistribution of accessibility. Sensitivity analysis shows that spatial impedance dominates accessibility, whereas behavioural capac- ity modulates care effort. The findings illustrate hallmark properties of complex adaptive social systems-emergence, heterogeneity, and feedback-demonstrating how computational social simulation can illuminate policy trade-offs between spatial efficiency, social equity, and care sustainability in ageing territories.

A Computational Social Simulation of Ageing and Care Accessibility in Italian Inner Areas

TL;DR

The paper tackles aging-related care access in sparse Italian inner-area municipalities by building a GIS-integrated, agent-based model of elder-caregiver dyads. It fuses road-network data, IPF-derived synthetic populations, and behavioral heterogeneity to simulate how two ambulatory-service configurations affect system-level metrics and micro-spatial accessibility in Premeno. Through 40 batches with 50 replications per scenario and global sensitivity analyses, the study reveals aggregate neutrality but pronounced local redistribution of accessibility, with spatial impedance driving accessibility and caregiver capacity shaping burden. The work demonstrates hallmarks of complex adaptive systems—emergence, heterogeneity, and feedback—and offers a transferable framework for policy testing on care sustainability and equity in ageing landscapes.

Abstract

Ageing societies face increasing strain on formal and informal care systems, par- ticularly in low-density mountainous municipalities where sparse services and steep terrain constrain access. This study presents a spatially explicit agent-based model that integrates a road-network GIS, synthetic populations derived through Iterative Proportional Fitting, and behavioural heterogeneity to examine how alternative service configurations shape accessibility and caregiver burden. The model, applied to Premeno (Piedmont, Italy), compares a baseline distribution of ambulatory services with a relocation scenario at Villa Bernocchi. System-level indicators (Caregiver Effort, Overwhelm, Hours Not Cared, Walkability) and micro-spatial metrics (Walkability, Detour Ratio, Proximity) are analysed across 40 batches and 50 stochastic replications per scenario. Results reveal aggregate neutrality but pronounced local redistribution of accessibility. Sensitivity analysis shows that spatial impedance dominates accessibility, whereas behavioural capac- ity modulates care effort. The findings illustrate hallmark properties of complex adaptive social systems-emergence, heterogeneity, and feedback-demonstrating how computational social simulation can illuminate policy trade-offs between spatial efficiency, social equity, and care sustainability in ageing territories.

Paper Structure

This paper contains 13 sections, 2 figures, 4 tables.

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction
  2. Methods
  3. Model overview
  4. Scenarios and experimental design
  5. Synthetic population and data integration
  6. Sensitivity Analysis and Robustness
  7. Results and Discussion
  8. Emergent spatial patterns of accessibility
  9. Behavioural and social heterogeneity
  10. System-level and micro-level effects
  11. Sensitivity-driven insights
  12. Model robustness and theoretical implications
  13. Conclusions and Policy Implications

Figures (2)

  • Figure 1: Study area: municipality of Premeno (Piedmont, Italy), an inner area characterised by low service density and steep morphology. The inset map (top right) shows its geographical position in northern Italy. Source: OpenStreetMap osm.
  • Figure 2: Comparison of ambulatory service locations in the two simulated configurations. Top: Scenario 1 (current distribution of ambulatory services) shows fragmented accessibility with Walkability Index values ranging from 12 to 47 (mean $\approx$ 27). Bottom: Scenario 2 (relocation to Villa Bernocchi) yields a more homogeneous spatial distribution and higher average walkability (mean $\approx$ 34), indicating improved accessibility for peripheral households while maintaining service coverage for central areas. Grey-scale points represent residential nodes weighted by walkability index (0-50). Source: OpenStreetMap OSM2024, Simulation Data.