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Modelling the control of West Nile virus using mosquito reduction methods, vaccination of equids, and human behavioral adaptation to the usage of personal protective equipment

Pride Duve, Felix Gregor Sauer, Renke Lühken

Abstract

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne virus in the genus Flavivirus that circulates between mosquitoes and birds, whereas humans, equids, and other mammals are dead-end hosts. Since its emergence in Germany in 2018, the virus has spread across the country, emphasising the need for effective intervention strategies. However, it remains unclear how different strategies should be combined and timed to effectively reduce WNV transmission under temperature-driven dynamics. In this study, we develop a temperature-dependent, process-based model to evaluate the effectiveness of WNV control strategies, such as mosquito reduction methods, equid vaccination, and the use of personal protective equipment (PPE). Human behavioural responses to infection risk are incorporated through imitation dynamics that capture how individuals adopt PPE based on perceived infection risk and social influence. An optimal control problem has been formulated and studied to determine the seasonal timing of mosquito controls under temperature forcing. Results suggest that mosquito control efforts initiated in early spring and intensified in early May, may reduce the August peak in the infectious bird population. Moreover, a combined scenario of mosquito control methods, human PPE adoption, and equid vaccination could be the best strategy among dead-end hosts. The analysis of various combinations of constant controls is available as an interactive application, allowing users to explore intervention strategies under different temperature projections corresponding to the low-mitigation (SSP126), intermediate (SSP245), and high-emission (SSP585) scenarios.

Modelling the control of West Nile virus using mosquito reduction methods, vaccination of equids, and human behavioral adaptation to the usage of personal protective equipment

Abstract

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne virus in the genus Flavivirus that circulates between mosquitoes and birds, whereas humans, equids, and other mammals are dead-end hosts. Since its emergence in Germany in 2018, the virus has spread across the country, emphasising the need for effective intervention strategies. However, it remains unclear how different strategies should be combined and timed to effectively reduce WNV transmission under temperature-driven dynamics. In this study, we develop a temperature-dependent, process-based model to evaluate the effectiveness of WNV control strategies, such as mosquito reduction methods, equid vaccination, and the use of personal protective equipment (PPE). Human behavioural responses to infection risk are incorporated through imitation dynamics that capture how individuals adopt PPE based on perceived infection risk and social influence. An optimal control problem has been formulated and studied to determine the seasonal timing of mosquito controls under temperature forcing. Results suggest that mosquito control efforts initiated in early spring and intensified in early May, may reduce the August peak in the infectious bird population. Moreover, a combined scenario of mosquito control methods, human PPE adoption, and equid vaccination could be the best strategy among dead-end hosts. The analysis of various combinations of constant controls is available as an interactive application, allowing users to explore intervention strategies under different temperature projections corresponding to the low-mitigation (SSP126), intermediate (SSP245), and high-emission (SSP585) scenarios.

Paper Structure

This paper contains 16 sections, 24 equations, 10 figures, 2 tables.

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction
  2. Model formulation
  3. Mosquito population
  4. Bird population:
  5. Human population:
  6. Equid population:
  7. Model flowchart and system of equations
  8. Methods
  9. Results
  10. Model fit
  11. Sensitivity analysis of the control variables
  12. Behavioural dynamics of PPE adoption
  13. Impact of vaccinating equids
  14. Optimal control problem
  15. Discussion and conclusions
  16. ...and 1 more sections

Figures (10)

  • Figure 1: Observed animal WNV cases in Germany from August 2018 to December 2025 (left) and WNV cases for the different species (right). Data obtained from klji for the period 2018-2025.
  • Figure 2: Fraction of active mosquitoes driven by photoperiod at selected locations (left) and for the entire country on 1 June (right).
  • Figure 3: Observed relative frequency of the nestlings of northern goshawks alexandrecourtiol20204271624MerlingdeChapa2020 with fitted Gamma distribution (left) and bird birth rate as a function of the calendar day (right).
  • Figure 4: Flow chart diagram for the process-based model of WNV with control interventions in bold black colour. Red arrows and compartments indicate infected classes. Diagram created in BioRender with license Arbovirologie (2025) (https://BioRender.com/r9wek95). Content not licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license.
  • Figure 5: Temporal dynamics of WNV compared to the observed cases for the period 2018-2025.
  • ...and 5 more figures