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A Less Terrifying Universe? Mundanity as an Explanation for the Fermi Paradox

Robin H. D. Corbet

TL;DR

The paper reframes the Fermi paradox through a Mundanity lens, arguing that a modest number of civilizations with only plateaued, non- extraordinary technology could explain the Great Silence. It quantifies technology levels, analyzes the practical limits to galaxy-scale colonization and long-duration beacons, and assesses how such constraints shape technosignature searches. Through a toy model and a selective review of detections, it argues that leakage radiation and near-term radio surveys could yield detections without invoking exotic megascience. The work suggests life may be common in the galaxy and that upcoming facilities like the SKA and exoplanet missions have meaningful chances to probe this Mundane scenario, offering a non-terrorizing alternative to more sensational explanations.

Abstract

Applying a principle of "radical mundanity", this paper examines explanations for the lack of strong evidence for the presence of technology-using extraterrestrial civilizations (ETCs) in the Galaxy - the Fermi paradox. With this principle, the prospect that the Galaxy contains a modest number of civilizations is preferred, where none have achieved technology levels sufficient to accomplish large-scale astro-engineering or lack the desire to do so. This consideration also leads to the expectation that no ETC will colonize a large fraction of the Galaxy, even using robotic probes, and that there are no long-duration high-power beacons. However, there is a reasonable chance that we may make contact on a short, by historical standards, timescale. This event would be momentous, but could still leave us slightly disappointed. Such a Universe would be less terrifying than either of the two possibilities in the quote generally attributed to Arthur C. Clarke on whether we are alone or not. Also, if there is a modest number of ETCs in the Galaxy, that would suggest that there is a large number of planets with some form of life.

A Less Terrifying Universe? Mundanity as an Explanation for the Fermi Paradox

TL;DR

The paper reframes the Fermi paradox through a Mundanity lens, arguing that a modest number of civilizations with only plateaued, non- extraordinary technology could explain the Great Silence. It quantifies technology levels, analyzes the practical limits to galaxy-scale colonization and long-duration beacons, and assesses how such constraints shape technosignature searches. Through a toy model and a selective review of detections, it argues that leakage radiation and near-term radio surveys could yield detections without invoking exotic megascience. The work suggests life may be common in the galaxy and that upcoming facilities like the SKA and exoplanet missions have meaningful chances to probe this Mundane scenario, offering a non-terrorizing alternative to more sensational explanations.

Abstract

Applying a principle of "radical mundanity", this paper examines explanations for the lack of strong evidence for the presence of technology-using extraterrestrial civilizations (ETCs) in the Galaxy - the Fermi paradox. With this principle, the prospect that the Galaxy contains a modest number of civilizations is preferred, where none have achieved technology levels sufficient to accomplish large-scale astro-engineering or lack the desire to do so. This consideration also leads to the expectation that no ETC will colonize a large fraction of the Galaxy, even using robotic probes, and that there are no long-duration high-power beacons. However, there is a reasonable chance that we may make contact on a short, by historical standards, timescale. This event would be momentous, but could still leave us slightly disappointed. Such a Universe would be less terrifying than either of the two possibilities in the quote generally attributed to Arthur C. Clarke on whether we are alone or not. Also, if there is a modest number of ETCs in the Galaxy, that would suggest that there is a large number of planets with some form of life.

Paper Structure

This paper contains 23 sections, 5 equations, 1 figure.

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction
  2. Quantifying Technology Levels
  3. Colonizing the Galaxy
  4. A Mundane Perspective
  5. Fundamental Limits to Technological Development - Extraterrestrial Civilizations with Fairly Mundane Technology
  6. Implications of Technology Limits: Large-Scale Astro-Engineering is Impossible or Pointless or Both
  7. Implications of Technology Limits: No Long-Duration High-Power Beacons Co-located with a Civilization
  8. A Modest, Non-Zero, Number of Extraterrestrial Technological Civilizations
  9. Limits to Galactic Colonization, Even by Robots
  10. Life in a Mundane Galaxy, and Robustness
  11. Illustrative Estimates of Constrained Robotic Probe Exploration
  12. Technosignature Searches
  13. SETI Across the Electromagnetic Spectrum
  14. Communication via Other Messengers
  15. Artifacts - Near to Far
  16. ...and 8 more sections

Figures (1)

  • Figure 1: The distance and number of ETCs encountered by exploration expanding at a rate, $s_p$ of 0.001 $c$. The left-hand figures are for $N_{MW} = 10^5$ and the right-hand figures are for $N_{MW} = 10^4$.