Researcher Population Pyramids: Tracking Demographic and Gender Trajectories Across Countries

Abstract

The sustainability of the academic ecosystem relies on researcher demographics and gender balance, yet assessing these dynamics in a timely manner for policy is challenging. Here, we propose a researcher population pyramid framework for tracking demographic and gender trajectories across countries using publication data. We provide a timely snapshot of historical and present demographics and gender balance across 58 countries, revealing three contrasting patterns among research systems: Emerging systems (e.g., Arab countries) exhibit high researcher inflows with widening gender gaps in cumulative productivity; Mature systems (e.g., the United States) show modest inflows with narrowing gender gaps; and Rigid systems (e.g., Japan) lag in both. Furthermore, by simulating future scenarios, the framework makes potential trajectories visible. If 2023 demographic patterns persist, Arab countries' systems could resemble mature or even rigid ones by 2050. Our framework provides a robust diagnostic tool for policymakers worldwide to foster sustainable talent pipelines and gender equality in academia.

Figures (5)

• Figure 1: Trends in researcher population and gender balance from 2000 to 2023. Panels (a) and (b): Annual number of unique authors who published at least one paper, affiliated with (a) Arab and (b) reference countries. Plotted on a logarithmic scale. Panels (c) and (d): Annual proportion of female authors affiliated with (a) Arab and (b) reference countries. The gray shaded area marks the period of the Arab Spring (2010--2012).
• Figure 2: Researcher population pyramids in 2010, 2023, and 2050 for Egypt, Tunisia, Japan, and the United States. Cumulative productivity is plotted on the vertical axis, while the number of active authors for each gender is displayed on a logarithmic horizontal axis. If the number of authors with cumulative productivity $k$ is zero, the bar for $k$ is not displayed.
• Figure 3: Researcher inflow in 2023. Bars show the proportion of newly active authors in 2023 relative to all active authors in the same year. Green and orange segments represent female and male authors, respectively. Percentages above the bars indicate the female share among newly active authors.
• Figure 4: Researcher population pyramids for Japan and the United States in 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000.
• Figure 5: Scatter plot of the Arab, reference, and other countries positioned by researcher inflow (vertical axis) and the gender gap in cumulative productivity (horizontal axis) in 2023. Researcher inflow is the proportion of newly active authors among all active authors. The gender gap in cumulative productivity is defined as the mean cumulative productivity of female authors minus that of male authors, normalized by the male mean. Country codes are as follows: AE (United Arab Emirates), AU (Australia), CA (Canada), DE (Germany), DZ (Algeria), EG (Egypt), ES (Spain), FR (France), GB (United Kingdom), IQ (Iraq), IT (Italy), JO (Jordan), JP (Japan), LB (Lebanon), MA (Morocco), SA (Saudi Arabia), SE (Sweden), TN (Tunisia), and US (United States). Gray arrows indicate the trajectories of the Arab and reference countries from their coordinates in 2010 to their coordinates in 2023 in the same two-dimensional space. Vertical and horizontal dashed lines indicate the respective medians across the 58 countries. See Supplementary Section S5 for detailed results for all 58 countries.