Logo
ScienceStack
Table of Contents
Fetching ...
Sign In

Self-selection of Information and Belief Update: An Experiment on COVID-19 Vaccine Information Acquisition

ChienHsun Lin, Hans H. Tung

Abstract

How does the endogenous selection of information shape belief formation? In observational settings, individuals only consume information they choose, making it impossible to observe how they would respond to information they actively avoid. We address this identification challenge using a randomized experiment on COVID-19 vaccines in Taiwan. After eliciting subjects' preferences over vaccine-specific reports, we randomly assign them to receive either their chosen or unchosen information, orthogonalizing selection from exposure. We find subjects are more likely to select information about vaccines they already perceive as more effective. Conditional on receiving information, belief updating is substantially larger when the information was self-selected, even after controlling for prior-posterior disagreement. These findings highlight endogenous information demand as a central determinant of persuasion, suggesting that increasing information availability alone may be insufficient when individuals rationally filter out options they perceive as less relevant to their decision-making.

Self-selection of Information and Belief Update: An Experiment on COVID-19 Vaccine Information Acquisition

Abstract

How does the endogenous selection of information shape belief formation? In observational settings, individuals only consume information they choose, making it impossible to observe how they would respond to information they actively avoid. We address this identification challenge using a randomized experiment on COVID-19 vaccines in Taiwan. After eliciting subjects' preferences over vaccine-specific reports, we randomly assign them to receive either their chosen or unchosen information, orthogonalizing selection from exposure. We find subjects are more likely to select information about vaccines they already perceive as more effective. Conditional on receiving information, belief updating is substantially larger when the information was self-selected, even after controlling for prior-posterior disagreement. These findings highlight endogenous information demand as a central determinant of persuasion, suggesting that increasing information availability alone may be insufficient when individuals rationally filter out options they perceive as less relevant to their decision-making.

Paper Structure

This paper contains 31 sections, 6 theorems, 31 equations, 8 figures, 19 tables.

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction
  2. Literature
  3. Background and Experimental Design
  4. Background
  5. Details of the Experiment Design
  6. Theoretic Benchmark
  7. The Case of Single Vaccine
  8. Setting
  9. The Acquisition of the Information
  10. Change in Beliefs
  11. Multiple Vaccines
  12. Description of the Main Variables
  13. Beliefs about the Vaccine effectiveness
  14. The Subjects' Demand for the Vaccine Effectiveness Information
  15. Preference on Receiving Vaccines
  16. ...and 16 more sections

Key Result

Proposition 1

Define the relative accuracy of the prior belief $\gamma\equiv(\sigma_s^2)/(\sigma_\theta^2)$. Let $V\left(\overline{v}-\mu_\theta,\gamma,c\right)\equiv\mathbb{E}_{s}\left[v(s)\right]-v_0-c$ be the value of the information.

Figures (8)

  • Figure 1: A Demonstration of the Belief Update in Vaccine Effectiveness
  • Figure 2: Information Preference in Vaccine Effectiveness and Familiarity
  • Figure 3: Changes in Beliefs
  • Figure B1: The Experiment Survey Flow
  • Figure B2: Experimental Interface
  • ...and 3 more figures

Theorems & Definitions (6)

  • Proposition 1
  • Proposition 2
  • Corollary 1
  • Lemma A.1
  • Lemma A.2
  • Proposition A.1