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Multi-messenger standard-siren cosmology for third-generation gravitational-wave detectors: forecasts considering observations of gamma-ray bursts and kilonovae

Tao Han, Jing-Fei Zhang, Xin Zhang

Abstract

In the third-generation (3G) gravitational-wave (GW) detector era, GW multi-messenger observations for binary neutron star merger events can exert great impacts on exploring the cosmic expansion history. Extending the previous work, we explore the potential of 3G GW standard siren observations in cosmological parameter estimation by considering their associated electromagnetic (EM) counterparts, including $γ$-ray burst (GRB) coincidence observations by the Gravitational wave high-energy Electromagnetic Counterpart All-sky Monitor and GW-triggered target-of-opportunity observations of kilonovae by different optical survey projects. During an assumed 10-year observation, we predict that the number of detectable GW-kilonova events is $\sim 4900$ with redshifts below $\sim 0.4$ under GW network and Large Synoptic Survey Telescope in the $i$ band, which is three times more than that of GW-GRB detections. For the cosmological analysis, we find that with the inclusion of GW-kilonova detections, the constraints on cosmological parameters from GW-EM detections are significantly improved compared to those from GW-GRB detections. In particular, GW-EM detections can tightly constrain the Hubble constant with a precision ranging from $0.076\%$ to $0.034\%$. Moreover, GW multi-messenger observations could effectively break the cosmological parameter degeneracies generated by the mainstream EM observations, CMB+BAO+SN (CBS). The combination of CBS and GW-EM can tightly constrain the equation of state parameters of dark energy $w$ in the $w$CDM model and $w_0$ in the $w_0w_a$CDM model with precisions of $0.72\%$ and $0.99\%$, respectively, meeting the standard of precision cosmology. In conclusion, GW multi-messenger observations could play a crucial role in helping solve the Hubble tension and probing the fundamental nature of dark energy.

Multi-messenger standard-siren cosmology for third-generation gravitational-wave detectors: forecasts considering observations of gamma-ray bursts and kilonovae

Abstract

In the third-generation (3G) gravitational-wave (GW) detector era, GW multi-messenger observations for binary neutron star merger events can exert great impacts on exploring the cosmic expansion history. Extending the previous work, we explore the potential of 3G GW standard siren observations in cosmological parameter estimation by considering their associated electromagnetic (EM) counterparts, including -ray burst (GRB) coincidence observations by the Gravitational wave high-energy Electromagnetic Counterpart All-sky Monitor and GW-triggered target-of-opportunity observations of kilonovae by different optical survey projects. During an assumed 10-year observation, we predict that the number of detectable GW-kilonova events is with redshifts below under GW network and Large Synoptic Survey Telescope in the band, which is three times more than that of GW-GRB detections. For the cosmological analysis, we find that with the inclusion of GW-kilonova detections, the constraints on cosmological parameters from GW-EM detections are significantly improved compared to those from GW-GRB detections. In particular, GW-EM detections can tightly constrain the Hubble constant with a precision ranging from to . Moreover, GW multi-messenger observations could effectively break the cosmological parameter degeneracies generated by the mainstream EM observations, CMB+BAO+SN (CBS). The combination of CBS and GW-EM can tightly constrain the equation of state parameters of dark energy in the CDM model and in the CDM model with precisions of and , respectively, meeting the standard of precision cosmology. In conclusion, GW multi-messenger observations could play a crucial role in helping solve the Hubble tension and probing the fundamental nature of dark energy.

Paper Structure

This paper contains 14 sections, 27 equations, 14 figures, 10 tables.

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction
  2. Methodology
  3. Simulation of BNS mergers
  4. Detection of GW events
  5. Detection of EM counterparts
  6. GRB detection
  7. Kilonova detection
  8. Fisher information matrix and error analysis
  9. Multi-messenger Observations of GWs and EM counterparts
  10. Constraint results on cosmological parameters
  11. Constraint results from GW multi-messenger observations with different EM detection scenarios
  12. Constraint results from GW multi-messenger observations combined with CBS observations
  13. Constraint results from GW multi-messenger observations with different duty cycles
  14. Conclusion

Figures (14)

  • Figure 1: Redshift distributions of all GW events and those detected by ET and ET2CE in a 10-year observation.
  • Figure 2: Detection efficiencies of ET and ET2CE.
  • Figure 3: Redshift distributions of detectable short GRBs and GW-GRB coincidences in a 10-year observation. Top panel: Redshift distributions of BNS mergers triggered by GECAM and GECAM in synergy with ET and ET2CE. Lower two panels: Distributions of inclination angles $\iota$ and redshifts of BNS mergers that can be triggered by GECAM alone and GECAM in synergy with ET and ET2CE. The color bar represents the logarithm of detection probability for GECAM.
  • Figure 4: Redshift distributions with respect to the peak AB apparent magnitude for GW-kilonova detections in the $g$ band under different survey projects assuming a 10-year observation. The left panel shows the results of ET and the right panel shows those of ET2CE. In each panel, circles with different colors represent different GW-kilonova detections, and dashed horizontal lines with different colors denote the search limiting magnitude $m_{\nu,\rm lim}$ of the corresponding survey projects (see Table \ref{['tab1']}).
  • Figure 5: Same as Fig. \ref{['fig4']}, but assuming GW-kilonova detections in the $r$ band.
  • ...and 9 more figures