Exploring turnover, retention and growth in an OSS Ecosystem
Tien Rahayu Tulili, Ayushi Rastogi, Andrea Capiluppi
TL;DR
The paper investigates how developer sentiment at the component level influences turnover, retention, and growth within the Gentoo OSS ecosystem over 23 years, using a mixed-method approach that combines mailing-list sentiment analysis with commit-history activity. Employing a Goal-Question-Metrics framework, it compares sentiment-positive and sentiment-negative components and examines how these dynamics relate to software stability through two primary questions. The study finds that sentiment-negative components exhibit higher retention and growth rates but distinct dynamics compared to sentiment-positive components, with significant phase-wise differences and nuanced correlations between sentiment, modifications, and workforce metrics. These findings offer practical guidance for tailoring management strategies to sentiment-driven dynamics to enhance sustainability and innovation in OSS projects, and they provide a foundation for further cross-ecosystem validation and causal modeling.
Abstract
The Gentoo ecosystem has evolved significantly over 23 years, highlighting the critical impact of developer sentiment on workforce dynamics such as turnover, retention, and growth. While prior research has explored sentiment at the project level, sentiment-driven dynamics at the component level remain underexplored, particularly in their implications for software stability. This study investigates the interplay between developer sentiment and workforce dynamics in Gentoo. The primary objectives are to (1) compare workforce metrics (turnover, retention, and growth rates) between sentiment-positive (SP) and sentiment-negative (SN) components, (2) examine temporal trends across three time phases, and (3) analyze the impact of these dynamics on software stability. A mixed-method approach was employed, integrating sentiment analysis of mailing lists and commit histories using the SentiStrength-SE tool. Workforce metrics were statistically analyzed using Pearson Correlation Matrix and Mann-Whitney U tests. The analysis focused on the most SP and SN components in the ecosystem. SN components exhibited higher retention rates but slower growth and turnover compared to SP components, which showed dynamic contributor behavior but reduced long-term stability. Temporal analysis revealed significant variations in workforce dynamics over three phases, with developer retention correlating positively with modifications in both sentiment groups. Tailored strategies are necessary for managing sentiment-driven dynamics in OSS projects. Improving \textit{adaptability} in SN components, and \textit{continuity} in SP components, could improve project sustainability and innovation. This study contributes to a nuanced understanding of sentiment's role in workforce behavior and software stability within OSS ecosystems.