A novel association and ranking approach identifies factors affecting educational outcomes of STEM majors

TL;DR

This paper addresses factors influencing STEM degree completion by applying a novel D-basis association method to binary, multifactor student data from two private four-year colleges. By incorporating NSC transfer-tracking and Astin's Input-Environment-Output framework, the authors identify that gateway-course performance, the choice of first mathematics class, and early major-switch patterns strongly correlate with graduation outcomes, while demographic effects are more nuanced and context-dependent. The study demonstrates that flexible major policies, customized math pathways, and targeted support in biology and chemistry can meaningfully impact on-time graduation and overall STEM completion, offering actionable guidance for institutions aiming to improve student success. The findings underscore the value of data-driven, multifactor analyses for informing policy changes and curricular design in STEM education.

Abstract

Improving undergraduate success in STEM requires identifying actionable factors that impact student outcomes, allowing institutions to prioritize key leverage points for change. We examined academic, demographic, and institutional factors that might be associated with graduation rates at two four-year colleges in the northeastern United States using a novel association algorithm called D-basis to rank attributes associated with graduation. Importantly, the data analyzed included tracking data from the National Student Clearinghouse on students who left their original institutions to determine outcomes following transfer. Key predictors of successful graduation include performance in introductory STEM courses, the choice of first mathematics class, and flexibility in major selection. High grades in introductory biology, general chemistry, and mathematics courses were strongly correlated with graduation. At the same time, students who switched majors - especially from STEM to non-STEM - had higher overall graduation rates. Additionally, Pell eligibility and demographic factors, though less predictive overall, revealed disparities in time to graduation and retention rates. The findings highlight the importance of early academic support in STEM gateway courses and the implementation of institutional policies that provide flexibility in major selection. Enhancing student success in introductory mathematics, biology, and chemistry courses could greatly influence graduation rates. Furthermore, customized mathematics pathways and focused support for STEM courses may assist institutions in optimizing student outcomes. This study offers data-driven insights to guide strategies to increase STEM degree completion.

Figures (7)

• Figure 1: Majors, retention, and graduation outcomes of first-time full-time (FT) students at Schools A and B. The left bar represents all the FT students at each school in the 2010-2014 starting cohorts who either started as STEM majors or as non-STEM majors who eventually switched to a STEM major (non-STEM majors who never switched to a STEM major are not included). The center bar indicates whether students were retained from the first to the second year. The right bar represents the eventual outcomes. Colored streams represent groups of students with shared characteristics.
• Figure 2: Top 30 attributes (out of 206) for graduation vs. non-graduation in order of decreasing relevance by $D$-basis analysis. Categories of related attributes are represented in the header as rectangles. The length and color of the attribute bars correspond to category of the attribute and match the category rectangles at the top (e.g., all First Math-related attribute bars for School A are colored in turquoise and shown at far left aligned with the First Math category rectangle). For full list, see ( https://tinyurl.com/2j3hx4yz/SchoolA_FTFT_STEM-ByRelevance_col11-col13-FullNames.csv and https://tinyurl.com/2j3hx4yz/SchoolB_FTFT_STEM-ByRelevance_col11-col13-FullNames.csv)
• Figure 3: Introductory Biology 1 and 2 course grades at Schools A and B and student outcomes. "DFWI" means grades of D, F, withdrew (W), or incomplete (I).
• Figure 4: General chemistry 1, 2 and organic chemistry course grades and outcomes at Schools A and B. School B org chem 1, blue and green lines are depicted as dotted lines as the values are identical. "DFWI" means grades of D, F, withdrew (W), or incomplete (I).
• Figure 5: First math course grades at schools A and B and outcomes. Trend lines of % students with specific grades with outcomes.

Theorems & Definitions (1)

• Example 1