Space science & the space economy

TL;DR

This paper investigates how space science can leverage the booming new space economy to realize ambitious yet affordable missions. It analyzes the evolution from a predominantly public-funded, high-cost paradigm to a market-driven framework shaped by technology, business, and cultural innovations, and discusses launch and satellite production cost trends, funding models, and performance metrics. The authors propose a practical roadmap: pursue iterative, risk-tolerant mission development, diversify funding sources (philanthropy, public-private partnerships, and intergovernmental programs), and scale production through standardized buses and CubeSat approaches. If adopted, these strategies could enable more frequent, high-impact basic science missions while reducing development times and financial risk, thereby sustaining transformative space science in both Europe and the United States.

Abstract

Will it be possible in the future to realize large, complex space missions dedicated to basic science like HST, Chandra and JWST? Or will their cost be too great? Today's space scene is completely different from that of even five years ago, and certainly from that of the time when HST, Chandra and JWST were conceived and built. Space-related investments have grown exponentially in recent years, with a monetary investment exceeding half a trillion dollars per year since 2023. This boom is greatly aided by the rise of the so-called 'new space' economy driven by private commercial funding, which for the first time last year surpassed public investments in space. The establishment of a market logic to space activities results in more competition and a resulting dramatic cost and schedule reduction. Can space science take advantage of the benefits of the new space economy to reduce cost and development time and at the same time succeed in producing powerful missions in basic science? The prospects for Europe and the United States are considered here. We argue that this goal would be achievable if the scientific community could take advantage of the three pillars underlying the innovation of the new space economy: (1) technology innovation proceeding through both incremental innovation and disruptive innovation, (2) business innovation, through vertical integration, scale production, and service-oriented business model, and (3) cultural innovation, through openness to risk and iterative development.

Figures (3)

• Figure 1: Cost/kilogram to LEO versus year
• Figure 2: [left panel] The percentage of the total NASA and ESA budget that went in science and Earth observation mission from 2000 to 2025. NASA science budget include Earth observation science. ESA Earth observation includes both science and applications. [Right panel] The NASA and ESA budget for science and Earth observation in $(2023), therefore corrected for inflation.
• Figure 3: [left panel] Productivity of space science missions as a function of their mass and cost (color). Productivity is parameterized as the number of reviewed papers/yr/M$. The diamond marks the average of cubesat missions, the error bars encompass the range of productivity of cubesats, from very high to very low or zero for failed missions. [Right panel] Impact of space science missions as a function of their mass and total cost (color). Impact is parameterized as the Research impact quotient (Riq), see Appendix A. The diamond marks the average of cubesat missions, the error bars encompass the range of impact of cubesats, from very high to very low or zero for failed missions.