Mass Shootings, Community Mobility, and the Relocation of Economic Activity
Miguel Cuellar, Hyunseok Jung
TL;DR
This paper investigates how mass shootings influence community mobility and the relocation of economic activity in the United States. It combines SafeGraph foot-traffic data for about 153,000 POIs within five miles of 42 shootings (2018–2022) with an event-study and Difference-in-Differences approach to compare near-site versus far-site responses over 10 weeks before and 20 weeks after each event. The authors find that nearby POIs experience substantial declines in visits (around 26% in some periods), while faraway POIs exhibit increases (about 13%), indicating spatial displacement and substitution in economic activity; the effects intensify when trauma responses are stronger and when venues are highly substitutable. Heterogeneity analyses show larger impacts for recreational, educational, and food/drink venues, and indicate that substitutability and media coverage amplify relocation effects, while healthcare remains comparatively resilient. The study links these mobility shifts to welfare losses from distortions in time- and location-optimal choices and highlights potential macroeconomic implications for wages, employment, and housing through friction costs in urban economies.
Abstract
Using foot traffic data for over 150,000 points of interest (POIs) near the sites of 42 mass shootings (2018-2022, U.S.), we evaluate the spatial-temporal impact of the tragic events on community mobility and relocation of economic activities. Visits to nearby POIs decrease, while farther away POIs experience increased foot traffic, implying that communities shift their activities away from the shooting sites. The impact is stronger when stronger trauma responses are expected. Our results suggest that mass shootings drive significant displacements of economic activities and can lead to welfare losses due to distortions in optimal choices of time and location.