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Let's Talk Futures: A Literature Review of HCI's Future-Orientation

Camilo Sanchez, Sui Wang, Kaisa Savolainen, Felix Anand Epp, Antti Salovaara

TL;DR

This paper questions why HCI futures are often techno-centric and short-sighted, proposing a structured analysis of futuring practices. It conducts a large-scale literature review of ACM Digital Library articles (2008–2023), applying a four-category SPIN framework to distinguish epistemic stances, contingency perceptions, systemic integration, and narrative aspects. The findings reveal a rise of comprehensive futuring since 2012, yet a dominance of fleeting, technology-led visions persists; comprehensive futuring demonstrates greater openness to uncertainty, human experience, and contestation of dominant narratives, signaling potential for broader, more inclusive futures work. The study proposes five opportunities to expand futuring in HCI, advocating cross-disciplinary collaboration, inclusion of more-than-human perspectives, and responsible design practices to elevate the field’s contribution to futures and anticipation research.

Abstract

HCI is future-oriented by nature: it explores new human--technology interactions and applies the findings to promote and shape vital visions of society. Still, the visions of futures in HCI publications seem largely implicit, techno-deterministic, narrow, and lacking in roadmaps and attention to uncertainties. A literature review centered on this problem examined futuring and its forms in the ACM Digital Library's most frequently cited HCI publications. This analysis entailed developing the four-category framework SPIN, informed by futures studies literature. The results confirm that, while technology indeed drives futuring in HCI, a growing body of HCI research is coming to challenge techno-centric visions. Emerging foci of HCI futuring demonstrate active exploration of uncertainty, a focus on human experience, and contestation of dominant narratives. The paper concludes with insight illuminating factors behind techno-centrism's continued dominance of HCI discourse, as grounding for five opportunities for the field to expand its contribution to futures and anticipation research.

Let's Talk Futures: A Literature Review of HCI's Future-Orientation

TL;DR

This paper questions why HCI futures are often techno-centric and short-sighted, proposing a structured analysis of futuring practices. It conducts a large-scale literature review of ACM Digital Library articles (2008–2023), applying a four-category SPIN framework to distinguish epistemic stances, contingency perceptions, systemic integration, and narrative aspects. The findings reveal a rise of comprehensive futuring since 2012, yet a dominance of fleeting, technology-led visions persists; comprehensive futuring demonstrates greater openness to uncertainty, human experience, and contestation of dominant narratives, signaling potential for broader, more inclusive futures work. The study proposes five opportunities to expand futuring in HCI, advocating cross-disciplinary collaboration, inclusion of more-than-human perspectives, and responsible design practices to elevate the field’s contribution to futures and anticipation research.

Abstract

HCI is future-oriented by nature: it explores new human--technology interactions and applies the findings to promote and shape vital visions of society. Still, the visions of futures in HCI publications seem largely implicit, techno-deterministic, narrow, and lacking in roadmaps and attention to uncertainties. A literature review centered on this problem examined futuring and its forms in the ACM Digital Library's most frequently cited HCI publications. This analysis entailed developing the four-category framework SPIN, informed by futures studies literature. The results confirm that, while technology indeed drives futuring in HCI, a growing body of HCI research is coming to challenge techno-centric visions. Emerging foci of HCI futuring demonstrate active exploration of uncertainty, a focus on human experience, and contestation of dominant narratives. The paper concludes with insight illuminating factors behind techno-centrism's continued dominance of HCI discourse, as grounding for five opportunities for the field to expand its contribution to futures and anticipation research.

Paper Structure

This paper contains 28 sections, 2 figures, 2 tables.

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction
  2. Related Research
  3. Conventional Approaches to Examining the Future in HCI
  4. Speculative Futures in HCI Studies
  5. Possible Futures in HCI
  6. HCI's Future-Orientation in Light of Futures Studies
  7. A Literature-Based Examination of Futuring in HCI
  8. Stage 1: Identification
  9. Stage 2: Screening for Fleeting and Comprehensive Futuring
  10. Stage 3: Qualitative Analysis Covering Comprehensive-Futuring Work
  11. Findings
  12. How HCI's Future-Orientation Has Developed (RQ1)
  13. Characteristics of Comprehensive Futuring in the HCI Field (RQ2)
  14. Exploration of uncertainty
  15. Prevailing short time horizons
  16. ...and 13 more sections

Figures (2)

  • Figure 1: A PRISMA diagram of the article-screening process.
  • Figure 2: A histogram presenting the articles in our comprehensive-futuring sample (blue) and in the fleeting-futuring sample (green) by year (on the x-axis) and by publication venue (on the y-axis). Bar length corresponds to the number of articles in each category. Empty space indicates that no relevant articles were published in the relevant year and venue (CSCW material published in PACM is included (only) under the CSCW category).