The Effect of Foreground Galaxies on the Estimation of the Hubble Constant from Type Ia Supernovae
Amalia Villarrubia Aguilar, Julian Adamek
TL;DR
This study probes whether foreground galaxies along SN Ia sightlines bias the late-time estimate of the Hubble constant, $H_0$. It introduces two obstruction scenarios—total blocking and incorrect host assignments—and evaluates them with a synthetic, ray-traced SN Ia dataset derived from a relativistic N-body simulation and abundance-matched galaxy radii. Using a lensing-aware Hubble diagram and MCMC inference for $H_0$ and $\Omega_m$, the authors find that total blocking affects less than 0.2% of SNe and does not significantly bias $H_0$, while incorrect host assignments bias $H_0$ downward by about 1.3% and increase $\Omega_m$, making this the dominant systematic in their analysis. The work underscores the importance of mitigating host-galaxy misidentification in current and future SN Ia cosmology, especially as surveys expand the sample size and redshift reach.
Abstract
Type Ia supernovae are the established `standard candle' in the construction of the Hubble diagram out to high luminosity distances. Since the Hubble constant that best fits observations of these supernovae often turns out to be high compared to fits to other data, they are currently being investigated for possible systematic effects, with many studies focusing on the calibration of the distance ladder in the local Universe. Here we present a simulation-based assessment of another type of systematic effect, related to the chance that the line of sight to a distant supernova passes close to a foreground galaxy. We consider two cases separately: First, the foreground galaxy may block the line of sight so that the supernova is not observed. Since foreground galaxies are correlated with overdensities that typically magnify the flux of background sources, this effect leads to a systematic removal of lensed supernovae from the sample, biasing the high-redshift Hubble diagram towards demagnified (fainter) supernovae. Second, if the supernova can be observed, its proximity to the foreground galaxy can lead to an incorrect host assignment, especially if the true host has a low surface brightness. Since foreground galaxies are typically found at lower redshifts, this effect introduces another systematic bias. The probability of line-of-sight alignments with foreground galaxies increases with redshift and therefore affects distant supernovae more strongly. We find that both effects are small, but the effect of host misidentification should be included in the systematic error budget at current levels of measurement precision.