A converse to geometric Manin's conjecture for general low degree hypersurfaces
Matthew Hase-Liu
TL;DR
This work addresses the existence of accumulating maps to Fano hypersurfaces in projective space, reframing the problem through the Fujita invariant and geometric Manin's conjecture. It proves a converse result in the regime $d\ge5$ and $n\ge4d-6$ for general hypersurfaces: there are no accumulating maps $f: Y\to X$ with $a(Y,-f^{*}K_X)\ge1$, by combining a higher-genus circle-method analysis in positive characteristic with a reduction from general to very general hypersurfaces via the BAB conjecture. The strategy yields an expected-dimension control for moduli spaces of high-genus curves mapping to hypersurfaces, and demonstrates that all proper subvarieties have $a(V,-K_X|_V)<1$, thereby ruling out accumulation phenomena and transferring the conclusion back to characteristic zero. The results improve known bounds relating the ambient dimension $n$ to the degree $d$ and illuminate the interplay between arithmetic circle-method techniques and modern birational geometry in controlling moduli spaces of curves on Fano varieties.
Abstract
Geometric Manin's conjecture predicts that components of the moduli space of curves on a Fano variety parametrizing non-free curves are pathological and arise from "accumulating" morphisms that increase the Fujita invariant. By passing to positive characteristic and employing a higher genus generalization of the circle method, we prove a converse to this conjecture for general hypersurfaces $X$ in $\mathbb{P}^{n}$ of degree $d\le n/4+3/2$, namely that there are no such accumulating maps to $X$.
