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Are Politicians Responsive to Mass Shootings? Evidence from U.S. State Legislatures

Haotian Chen, Jack Kappelman

Abstract

The United States leads the world in the number of mass shootings that occur each year, even as policy making on firearms remains polarized along party lines. In the face of increasing violence and public demand for policy action, we ask whether legislators change their voting behavior on firearm policy in the wake of mass shootings. We estimate the latent gun-policy positions of 14,585 state legislators across all 50 states using roll-call votes on firearm-related bills from 2011 to 2022. Employing a difference-in-differences design, we find that mass shootings occurring within a legislator's district do not, on average, measurably shift their positionality on firearm policy. This null effect is robust across analyses accounting for legislators' partisanship, their geographic proximity to the shooting, and characteristics of individual shootings. Our findings suggest that even acute, locally salient tragedies fail to cause changes in how legislators vote on firearm policy.

Are Politicians Responsive to Mass Shootings? Evidence from U.S. State Legislatures

Abstract

The United States leads the world in the number of mass shootings that occur each year, even as policy making on firearms remains polarized along party lines. In the face of increasing violence and public demand for policy action, we ask whether legislators change their voting behavior on firearm policy in the wake of mass shootings. We estimate the latent gun-policy positions of 14,585 state legislators across all 50 states using roll-call votes on firearm-related bills from 2011 to 2022. Employing a difference-in-differences design, we find that mass shootings occurring within a legislator's district do not, on average, measurably shift their positionality on firearm policy. This null effect is robust across analyses accounting for legislators' partisanship, their geographic proximity to the shooting, and characteristics of individual shootings. Our findings suggest that even acute, locally salient tragedies fail to cause changes in how legislators vote on firearm policy.
Paper Structure (33 sections, 2 equations, 17 figures, 4 tables)

This paper contains 33 sections, 2 equations, 17 figures, 4 tables.

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction
  2. Should Mass Shootings Cause Changes in Legislator's Behavior?
  3. Data and Methods
  4. Mass Shootings in Scope of Study
  5. Measuring Legislators' Gun Policy Ideal Points
  6. GLC Firearm Bill Rankings and Bill Effects
  7. Measuring Legislators' Latent Position on Firearm-related Issues
  8. Treatment Assignment and Identification
  9. Results
  10. Shootings Occurring Within or Near a State Legislator's District Do Not Affect Their Position on Firearm-Related Policies
  11. Does Shooting Severity or Context Drive Responsiveness?
  12. Robustness
  13. Conclusion
  14. Qualitative Interview Procedures
  15. Locations and Details of Mass Shootings
  16. ...and 18 more sections

Figures (17)

  • Figure 1: Polarization on Firearms Policy in U.S. State Legislatures, 2011-2022
  • Figure 2: ATT Estimates for Effect of Mass Shooting on Gun Issue Score Demonstrate Null Results, Across Party, for All Shootings in Study
  • Figure 3: ATT Estimates for Effect of Mass Shooting on Gun Issue Score Pooled by Shooting Characteristics
  • Figure A.2.1: U.S. State House and Senate Districts with Mass Shootings, 2011-2022
  • Figure A.2.2: U.S. State House and Senate Districts with Any Shooting, 2019-2025
  • ...and 12 more figures