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Quantifying the Dynamics of Harm Caused by Retracted Research

Yunyou Huang, Jiahui Zhao, Dandan Cui, Zhengxin Yang, Bingjie Xia, Qi Liang, Wenjing Liu, Li Ma, Suqin Tang, Tianyong Hao, Zhifei Zhang, Wanling Gao, Jianfeng Zhan

TL;DR

This study introduces a citation-based framework to quantify the harm caused by retracted papers and traces how that harm propagates through direct and indirect citations over a decade. By integrating the Semantic Scholar dataset with the Retraction Watch records and constructing a multi-hop citation network, it defines a harm vector $h(pr_c)$ that compares each citing paper’s citation trajectory to a matched comparator set. The key finding is an attention escape mechanism: harm is negligible in the short term but accumulates long-term, is amplified for indirect citations, and is greater in lower-impact journals, with retractions sometimes increasing early harm but partially mitigating harm at farther distances. These insights highlight the need to broaden monitoring beyond direct citations and to rethink governance and policy toward sustaining accountability, real-time tracking, and attention to long-tail effects in the scientific literature.

Abstract

Despite enormous efforts devoted to understand the characteristics and impacts of retracted papers, little is known about the mechanisms underlying the dynamics of their harm and the dynamics of its propagation. Here, we propose a citation-based framework to quantify the harm caused by retracted papers, aiming to uncover why their harm persists and spreads so widely. We uncover an ''attention escape'' mechanism, wherein retracted papers postpone significant harm, more prominently affect indirectly citing papers, and inflict greater harm on citations in journals with an impact factor less than 10. This mechanism allows retracted papers to inflict harm outside the attention of authors and publishers, thereby evading their intervention. This study deepens understanding of the harm caused by retracted papers, emphasizes the need to activate and enhance the attention of authors and publishers, and offers new insights and a foundation for strategies to mitigate their harm and prevent its spread.

Quantifying the Dynamics of Harm Caused by Retracted Research

TL;DR

This study introduces a citation-based framework to quantify the harm caused by retracted papers and traces how that harm propagates through direct and indirect citations over a decade. By integrating the Semantic Scholar dataset with the Retraction Watch records and constructing a multi-hop citation network, it defines a harm vector that compares each citing paper’s citation trajectory to a matched comparator set. The key finding is an attention escape mechanism: harm is negligible in the short term but accumulates long-term, is amplified for indirect citations, and is greater in lower-impact journals, with retractions sometimes increasing early harm but partially mitigating harm at farther distances. These insights highlight the need to broaden monitoring beyond direct citations and to rethink governance and policy toward sustaining accountability, real-time tracking, and attention to long-tail effects in the scientific literature.

Abstract

Despite enormous efforts devoted to understand the characteristics and impacts of retracted papers, little is known about the mechanisms underlying the dynamics of their harm and the dynamics of its propagation. Here, we propose a citation-based framework to quantify the harm caused by retracted papers, aiming to uncover why their harm persists and spreads so widely. We uncover an ''attention escape'' mechanism, wherein retracted papers postpone significant harm, more prominently affect indirectly citing papers, and inflict greater harm on citations in journals with an impact factor less than 10. This mechanism allows retracted papers to inflict harm outside the attention of authors and publishers, thereby evading their intervention. This study deepens understanding of the harm caused by retracted papers, emphasizes the need to activate and enhance the attention of authors and publishers, and offers new insights and a foundation for strategies to mitigate their harm and prevent its spread.
Paper Structure (11 sections, 8 equations, 6 figures)

This paper contains 11 sections, 8 equations, 6 figures.

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction
  2. Results
  3. Temporal dynamics of harm arising from retracted papers
  4. Characteristics of the harm propagation arising from retracted papers
  5. Impact of journal prestige on the harm caused by retracted papers
  6. Characteristics of harm caused by retracted papers before and after retraction
  7. Discussion
  8. Methods
  9. Data sources and preparation
  10. Quantification of harm
  11. Statistical analysis

Figures (6)

  • Figure 1: Study Flowchart. Description of the process of constructing the dataset of papers that directly cite retracted papers and indirectly cite retracted papers
  • Figure 1: The harm of citing retracted papers, with no duplicate statistics across different citation distances.(a) The median harm experienced by papers with an indirect citation distance of 2 varies over time after publication. (b) The median harm experienced by papers with an indirect citation distance of 3 varies over time after publication. (c) The median harm experienced by papers with an indirect citation distance of 4 varies over time after publication. (d) The median harm experienced by papers with an indirect citation distance of 5 varies over time after publication. (e) The median harm experienced by papers with an indirect citation distance of 6 varies over time after publication.
  • Figure 2: The variation in harm experienced by papers citing retracted articles over time.(a) The overall variation in the median harm experienced by papers citing retracted articles over time. (b) The variation in the median harm experienced by papers citing retracted articles over time across different fields, with layers ranging from the first year post-publication (innermost) to the tenth year post-publication (outermost).
  • Figure 3: The harm of indirectly citing retracted papers.(a) The median harm experienced by papers with an indirect citation distance of 2 varies over time after publication. (b) The median harm experienced by papers with an indirect citation distance of 3 varies over time after publication. (c) The median harm experienced by papers with an indirect citation distance of 4 varies over time after publication. (d) The median harm experienced by papers with an indirect citation distance of 5 varies over time after publication. (e) The median harm experienced by papers with an indirect citation distance of 6 varies over time after publication.
  • Figure 4: The harm experienced by papers published in journals with different impact factors (IF).(a) The median harm experienced by papers directly citing retracted papers. (b) The median harm experienced by papers with an indirect citation distance of 2 varies over time after publication. (c) The median harm experienced by papers with an indirect citation distance of 3 varies over time after publication. (d) The median harm experienced by papers with an indirect citation distance of 4 varies over time after publication. (e) The median harm experienced by papers with an indirect citation distance of 5 varies over time after publication. (f) The median harm experienced by papers with an indirect citation distance of 6 varies over time after publication.
  • ...and 1 more figures