Can transformative AI shape a new age for our civilization?: Navigating between speculation and reality

TL;DR

The paper investigates whether AI can become a true transformative technology for civilization by examining historical turning points, ethical frameworks, and the technical and societal barriers to achieving broadly capable AI. It juxtaposes two paths—delegation of processes to AI versus collaborative human-AI augmentation—and highlights human and technical potholes that could hinder progress, such as biases, misalignment, governance fragmentation, and computational limits. Through ethical reconciliation (including EU AI Act perspectives) and a broad survey of opportunities (AMAS, neural computation, interactive AI, quantum computing), the authors argue for a balanced, governance-rich approach that emphasizes safety, transparency, and global coordination. The work also discusses the potential for a science-explosion driven by AI and the possible need for new ethical/philosophical paradigms to guide post-transformative society. Overall, it underscores that AI’s trajectory toward transformation hinges on responsible innovation, cross-disciplinary collaboration, and robust regulatory frameworks that align AI with human values and equitable outcomes.

Abstract

Artificial Intelligence is widely regarded as a transformative force with the potential to redefine numerous sectors of human civilization. While Artificial Intelligence has evolved from speculative fiction to a pivotal element of technological progress, its role as a truly transformative agent, or transformative Artificial Intelligence, remains a subject of debate. This work explores the historical precedents of technological breakthroughs, examining whether Artificial Intelligence can achieve a comparable impact, and it delves into various ethical frameworks that shape the perception and development of Artificial Intelligence. Additionally, it considers the societal, technical, and regulatory challenges that must be addressed for Artificial Intelligence to become a catalyst for global change. We also examine not only the strategies and methodologies that could lead to transformative Artificial Intelligence but also the barriers that could ultimately make these goals unattainable. We end with a critical inquiry into whether reaching a transformative Artificial Intelligence might compel humanity to adopt an entirely new ethical approach, tailored to the complexities of advanced Artificial Intelligence. By addressing the ethical, social, and scientific dimensions of Artificial Intelligence's development, this work contributes to the broader discourse on the long-term implications of Artificial Intelligence and its capacity to drive civilization toward a new era of progress or, conversely, exacerbate existing inequalities and risks.

Figures (6)

• Figure 1: The harnessing of some technological advancements that pushed our civilization forward and the uncertainty about the role of AI in this roadmap. Orange circles are used for those advancements before the Modern Age, Red squares are used for those in the Modern Age, the yellow square indicates the current moment, and the yellow star is for the possible emergence of TAI in the future. Note that the chronological order of such advancements is debatable from several points of view, but it has been arranged at the discretion of the authors according to the exploitation of the turning points and not their discovery.
• Figure 2: Conflicts and principles of the main ethical perspectives in AI.
• Figure 3: Example of contractualism as a reconciliatory framework for AI.
• Figure 4: A historical overview of AI cycles, and the opportunity to become a truly transformative turning point in the near future.
• Figure 5: This illustration depicts the parallelism explained in this section. Image generated with the assistance of ChatGPT, a language model developed by OpenAI.